From Paris Match:
Paris Match: If you sign an agreement with the Kurdish “People’s Protection Units,” and the army enters that region and recovers all this land, you’ll find that there are prisons, and in these prisons, there are 400 French Jihadists. What are you going to do with them?
Assad: Every terrorist in the areas controlled by the Syrian state will be subjected to Syrian law, and Syrian law is clear concerning terrorism. We have courts specialized in terrorism and they will be prosecuted.
Paris Match: So, you don’t intend to repatriate them to Europe as Recep Tayyip Erdogan has done, for instance?
Assad: Erdogan is trying to blackmail Europe. A self-respecting man doesn’t talk like this. There are institutions and there are laws. Extraditing terrorists or any convicted person to another state is subject to bilateral agreements between countries; but to release people from prison knowing that they are terrorists and sending them to other countries to kill civilians - this is an immoral act.
Friday, 29 November 2019
Bashar el- Assad on top form
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
17:07
0
comments
That's a bit depressing
From the BBC:
A master player of the Chinese strategy game Go has decided to retire, due to the rise of artificial intelligence that "cannot be defeated".
Lee Se-dol is the only human to ever beat the AlphaGo software developed by Google's sister company Deepmind. In 2016, he took part in a five-match showdown against AlphaGo, losing four times but beating the computer once.
The South Korean said he had decided to retire after realising: "I'm not at the top even if I become the number one. There is an entity that cannot be defeated*," the 18-time world Go champion told South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
Depressing either because AI is now cleverer than we are - or because Go wasn't as difficult as people thought.
* Presumably, sooner or later they will develop a new programme that can beat AlphaGo, but that's probably not what he meant.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
14:04
0
comments
Labels: Computers
Thursday, 28 November 2019
Plastic bag tax - as expected, it didn't work as planned.
As I said eleven years ago, when the idea was first mooted in Wales:
4. [If the tax is] anything more than [0.1p per bag] we'd have a situation like in Ireland where people buy more, thicker bin-liners, nappy bags etc, so the overall environmental benefits are questionable to say the least.
I was initially taken in by articles like this (BBC, 2015) reporting "plastic bag use down 80%". Fair enough, I thought, I was wrong. With the benefit of hindsight and reading between the lines, Tesco were being a bit sneaky and didn't include 'bags for life' in their total.
So I was correct in principle, although my guesses on what substitutes people would buy were off the mark. From the BBC, today:
Sales of "bags for life" rose to 1.5bn last year as the amount of plastic used by supermarkets increased to 900,000 tonnes, Greenpeace research has found.
Campaigners are calling for higher charges for the bags or a complete ban as the research showed households bought an average of 54 a year... Bags for life must be used four times to be better for the environment.
On a human level, I really don't get it. I was caught out twice after the tax came in and paid the 5p for a disposable bag. Damn. Since then, I usually remember to take proper cloth bags with me to the supermarket. If I do a big shop, I'm with the* car anyway, so worst case I unload the stuff from the trolley straight into the boot, no biggie. If I pop in to the corner shop on the way home, I don't buy more than I can carry with two hands. (And what the hell does an average household do with their piles of bags for life?)
On the other hand, on a human level, I can understand it. If you're at the checkout with £50 of shopping for the family for the next few days, who cares about another 20p or 30p for the bags/convenience? Obviously, not very many.
So, the question is, should the whole thing be abandoned as a bad job, or should the tax be hiked ever higher? We can rule out a "complete ban", that's cloud cuckoo.
* Strictly speaking "with a car" as I have more than one, but that sounds odd.
-----------------------------------
This bit winds me up as well:
Waitrose was ranked top for cutting its packaging and trying out refill stations for products such as coffee, rice, pasta, wine and detergent.
Morrisons came second and was praised for setting a quantified target to increase reusable and refillable packaging, as well as making its loose and refillable products 10% cheaper than packaged alternatives.
Sure, they sell stuff 'loose'. Does that reduce the amount of plastic used? Does it heck. You are expected to put your 'loose' items into a flimsy plastic bag!
Being me, I don't bother with the flimsy plastic bag, I just hand the check out assistant three loose carrots (or whatever it is I only need a few of), they weigh up and charge me for the carrots. If you put them in a flimsy plastic bag, they weigh the plastic bag with contents and charge you for the bag as well.
And there is a trade-off between food waste and packaging waste. To a large extent, the packaging is there to reduce food waste. Think egg boxes. Just because the packaging is thrown away does not mean that it hasn't served a useful purpose.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
21:12
17
comments
Labels: Economics, Plastic bags
Wednesday, 27 November 2019
Your occasional reminder...
From Professional Pensions:
The government will pay out £21bn in income tax relief for pension contributions this tax year, while national insurance relief payments will rise to £18.7bn, according to statistics from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).
The estimated figures - published yesterday (10 October) - reveal the cost of income tax relief for registered pension schemes in 2019/2020 will be higher than the year prior, estimated at £20.4bn, and five years ago at £17.9bn.
This covers relief on contributions, relief on investment returns, and tax paid in retirement - but the figures do not provide estimates on the total receipt in tax when pensions are in receipt.
That last bit isn't quite clear - isn't "tax paid in retirement" the same as "receipt in tax when pensions are in receipt"? But hey, let's run with the headline figure. 'Cost' for these purposes is the equal and opposite of the value of the tax saving to the individuals, it's the same thing.
As ghastly as taxes on earnings (income tax and National Insurance) are, if I were in charge, I would chuck the 'focused' tax savings for pensions contributions (focused on older and wealthier people, including Yours Truly; and ultimately on the insurance companies which siphon it all off again) in the bin and share out the savings more equitably:
1. Increase the NIC thresholds (primary and secondary) to £12,500 (same as the personal allowance for income tax). Tax saving per employee earning more than £12,500 = £950 or so, call it £25 bn all in. That's an important first step towards a Basic Income. The Employment Allowance and Apprenticeship Levy can go in the bin as well.
2. Reinstate the personal allowance for those earning more than £100,000 (which results in a marginal income tax rate of 60%), tax saving maybe £3 bn. Either you believe in universal entitlements or you don't, and I do.
3. Harmonise Employees' primary NIC (currently 12%) and self-employed Class 4 NIC (currently 9%) at 11%, an overall tax saving of £6 billion or so. The self-employed will squeal, but so be it. Lower earning self-employed will be up to £370 better off, and those at the upper end will be paying £300 or so more (paying £3,724 = 11% x £46,350 - £12,500, instead of £3,413 = 9% x £46,350 - £8,424), hardly a life changing amount. Employees at the upper end will be saving £800 or so a year. There are more of the latter than the former.
4. Depending on how much is left over (it gets circular and there is guesswork involved), we can start chipping away at Employer's Secondary NIC, get it down from 13.8% of wages to 12% or something...
Shocking stuff, the audience cries, but a government would just have to do it and damn the torpedoes. (As far as I am concerned, the flat rate state pension of £160 covers it, there's no need for more endless tinkering on top).
By the next election, which party would be brave, stupid or corrupt enough to pledge to reverse this? How's that going to go down on the doorstep: "We pledge to hike tax rates for most people for the benefit of large corporations who make large donations to our party and offer us cosy jobs when we retire"?
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
21:30
11
comments
Labels: National Insurance, Pensions, Subsidies, Taxation
Saturday, 23 November 2019
The Guardian confuses capitalism with feudalism*, yet again.
* For clarity, I bracket feudalists; corporatists and monopolists together, i.e. those sources of income which require the protection of the government.
'Capitalism' on the other hand, isn't an '-ism'. It's just normal human nature expressing itself. People invent and use labour saving devices, those are true 'capital'. (Clearly, some really large scale labour-saving devices, like the National Grid or the road network can only be provided by the State, but they are still capital).
People like having nice stuff, so they want to earn as much as they can for a given level of risk or effort (or minimise risk for a given level of income etc). Somebody else has got to make that nice stuff. People like to keep their earnings rather than seeing them siphoned off in tax or rent or by a monopolistic employer. Human nature.
Sorry for the length of this footnote :-)
---------------------
The article is headed: It’s not thanks to capitalism that we’re living longer, but progressive politics.
In recent years prominent pundits including Steven Pinker, Jordan Peterson and Bill Gates have invoked the progress in global life expectancies to defend capitalism against a growing tide of critics.
Pinker is a decent sort (even though he's based his whole career on padding out one chapter from a Jared Diamond book); Peterson is a right wing lunatic; and Gates is a monopolist-corporatist masquerading as a capitalist.
It’s a familiar story. The prevailing narrative is that capitalism was a progressive force that put an end to serfdom and set off a dramatic rise in living standards. But this fairytale doesn’t hold up against the evidence.
Serfdom was a brutal system that generated extraordinary human misery, yes. But it wasn’t capitalism that put an end to it. As the historian Silvia Federici demonstrates, a series of successful peasant rebellions across Europe in the 14th and 15th centuries overthrew feudal lords and gave peasants more control over their own land and resources.
Those serfs wanted to run their own small businesses (farms). Life under feudalism (or Communism) is miserable and there is no point in working any harder than you are forced to. So this was a revolt by people wanting to run their own small businesses for their own benefit i.e. a revolt by capitalists against feudalists.
The fruits of this revolution were astonishing in terms of wellbeing. Wages doubled and nutrition improved. It was a period of dramatic social progress by the standards of the time.
Hardly surprising. Capitalism works better than feudalism.
Then the backlash happened. Upset at the growing power of peasants and workers, and angry about rising wages, a nascent capitalist class organised a counter-revolution. They began enclosing the commons and forcing peasants off the land, with the explicit intention of driving down the cost of wages.
Those weren't capitalists, those were feudalists re-asserting themselves.
With subsistence economies destroyed, people had no choice but to work for pennies simply in order to survive. According to the Oxford economists Henry Phelps Brown and Sheila Hopkins, real wages declined by up to 70% from the end of the 15th century all the way through the 17th century.
Yes, the employers in towns and cities took advantage of the cheap labour (most quite cruelly so, but if all your competitors do it, you have to do it as well). Better to eke out a miserable living in a town that starve in the countryside.
Famines became commonplace and nutrition deteriorated. In England, average life expectancy fell from 43 years in the 1500s to the low 30s in the 1700s. In short, the rise of capitalism generated a prolonged period of immiseration.
For sure, we've established that. Successful peasants' revolt = wages doubled and nutrition improved. Feudalists re-assert themselves = the opposite happens.
He's also jumping the gun a bit here. The industrial revolution started sometime after 1760, depending how you define or measure it.
Drawing on a wide range of studies, Szreter shows that populations directly affected by industrial growth in Britain experienced a steady decline in life expectancy, from the 1780s through the 1870s, down to levels not seen since the Black Death in the 14th century.
Yes, that was because of poor nutrition (see above); employers exploiting the cheap labour that the feudalists had turfed off the land (see above); and appalling living conditions in towns and cities...
It wasn’t until the 1880s that urban life expectancies finally began to rise – at least in Europe. But what drove these sudden gains? Szreter finds it was down to a simple intervention: sanitation.
Agreed.
And yet progress toward this goal was opposed, not enabled, by the capitalist class – libertarian landlords and factory owners refused to allow officials to build sanitation systems on their properties, and refused to pay the taxes required to get the work done.
Their resistance was broken only once commoners won the right to vote and workers organised into unions. Over the following decades these movements leveraged the state to intervene against landlords and factory owners, delivering not only sanitation systems but also universal healthcare, education and public housing. According to Szreter, access to these public goods spurred soaring life expectancy throughout the 20th century.
OK, broadly correct.
Democracy is inherently a good thing, and it leads to universal healthcare/education which are clearly also good things (why the government should get involved in these rather than 'leaving it to the markets' is a separate topic). But proper free-market capitalism (as opposed to corporatism and cronyism) is part and parcel of democracy, each requires the other. I don't think it's possible to have one without the other. PR China is a totalitarian system which does not have free-market capitalism; it has crony capitalism.
But the interventions that matter when it comes to life expectancy do not require high levels of GDP per capita. The European Union has a higher life expectancy than the United States, with 40% less income.
The '40% lower' appears to be true. GDP in Europe has flat-lined since 2008, in the USA, it rebounded quite nicely, so well done them! (glossing over the fact that incomes/wealth are even more unequally distributed in the USA than in Europe, so median American is not better off than in 2008 either). I think the point here is that European countries spend on average 8% of GDP on price-regulated healthcare. For a similar level of service, the medical-industrial bloc in the USA is allowed to charge two or three times as much.
Costa Rica and Cuba beat the US with only a fraction of the income, and both achieved their greatest gains in life expectancy during periods when GDP wasn’t growing at all.
So why are people trying to flee Cuba and get to Florida, and not the other way round?
So let’s give credit where credit is due: progress in life expectancy has been driven by progressive political movements that have harnessed economic resources to deliver robust public goods. History shows that in the absence of these progressive forces, growth has quite often worked against social progress, not for it.
How is Cuba 'progressive'? LOLZ.
He's missed the point anyway; the optimum is proper democracy and proper free-market capitalism, where the government restricts itself to doing what it does best (e.g. providing; or subsidising and regulating privately-provided universal healthcare and education) and lets the private sector to do what it does best (anything it wants, basically).
We do not know what the Industrial Revolution would have looked like if it hadn't been fuelled by cheap labour/peasants driven off the land. Factories would have had to offer much higher wages to tempt people off the land, for a start, so it might have been slower, but with much more favourable outcomes for all concerned.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
15:53
21
comments
Labels: Capitalism, Feudalism
Traffic lights
As I drove home, I noticed that the traffic lights at a fairly busy crossroads at one end of the main road in our village-suburb were turned off and traffic seemed to be flowing smoothly.
I parked at home and walked back and watched for ten minutes. Traffic is at its heaviest on Saturday afternoons, and when the lights are working, there is usually a queue of ten or twenty cars on each of the four approach roads. The longest queue that formed was no more than three or four cars on one approach road if the car in front wanted to turn right (the most awkward turn on those particular cross roads). Within a few seconds, there would be a gap or somebody would just slow down and let them in.
Drivers also stopped more or less immediately for pedestrians who wanted to cross; buses could plough straight through. I crossed at the pedestrian crossing (Pelican crossing) a little further up the hill. Even though those lights were turned off as well, cars stopped for pedestrians more or less immediately
It filled my heart with joy. I wonder whether the council (or whichever authority is in charge) will see sense and leave them turned off permanently? If they want to do 'something', I think a yellow box wouldn't go amiss.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
14:31
9
comments
Labels: Cars, Commonsense, Traffic lights
Wednesday, 20 November 2019
Labour appears to be getting it right (although they are trying hard to conceal the fact).
There is much ballyhoo in Labour's manifesto about building 100,000 new affordable homes, but you have to dig really quite deeply to find out what these "affordable homes" consist of. A read through their green paper elicits the fact that the vast majority of these affordable homes will be new social housing (hurrah!) and a small minority will be new homes for sale on subsidised land.
However, even here, "Labour have got it": from the green paper, Housing for the Many:
48. Low-cost ownership homes. FirstBuy homes will be a new type of home to buy, discounted so the mortgage payments are no more than a third of average local household incomes. The discount will be locked into the home so that future generations of first-time buyers benefit too. These homes will be aimed at working families on ordinary incomes, key workers and younger people. Shared-ownership and rent to buy homes will be other low-cost options included in this category.
49. A FirstBuy home in Warwick could be sold to first-time buyers at a 17% discount to the going market rate, allowing a first-time buyer almost £5,000 off a deposit as well as lower mortgage repayments. In Exeter, a FirstBuy home could mean a 26% discount and £7,000 off the money needed for deposit.
So well done Labour for presenting an economically literate housing strategy in a way that looks to the lazy like a Tory style get-rich-quick sell-off of undervalue land.
Posted by
Bayard
at
19:49
11
comments
Monday, 18 November 2019
Yeah! Go Lib Dems!
Jo Swinson doesn't seem to grasp the logic behind LVT, she's mis-selling it, but good stuff nonetheless from The Daily Mail:
Ms Swinson told delegates:
"The Liberal Democrats are committed to supporting small businesses who are the engine of our economy. That's why the Liberal Democrats would scrap business rates and replace them with a commercial landowner levy. It will shift the burden from the tenant to the landlord so that we can breathe new life into our high streets... It is time for clear action that will give proper help to our small businesses."
Ripping up business rates was mooted by the party in August 2018 by the then leader Vince Cable in a report called Taxing Land, Not Investment. It made clear the levy would be paid by owners, not tenants, and that 'non-residential stamp duty should be scrapped to improve the efficiency of the commercial property market.
Ms Swinson added: "Let's remember what the issues are that we're trying to solve here - businesses on the high street have been struggling for many years now and they find the business rates can be a crippling cost and this is at a time when they're already having to deal with footfall falling, competition from online competitors where they aren't having to pay the same type of rates.
"So I think this is an important change, and clearly it being borne by landlords - some of that may well be passed on but we also recognise it will not all be - and this will provide a significant boost for businesses."
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
16:51
6
comments
Labels: Jo Swinson, Land Value Tax, Lib Dems
Friday, 15 November 2019
We own land! (near a good state school. Labour wants to) give us money!
Labour wants to ban private schools. Well, not all private schools, nurseries, private tutors, and universities will still be able to charge fees, but most of them and all of those that are misleadingly called "public" schools, and especially Eton, yes, most especially Eton.
Quite apart from the fact that the main reason for doing this appears to be based on a fallacy (the same wealthy, privately educated families keep hold of the top jobs down the generations, not because they are privately educated, but because they are descended from the elite), such a measure would fail to convert what is effectively a privately collected tax, i.e. school fees, into a publicly collected one.
Much is made of "redistributing", actually confiscating, the private schools' assets, but the income derived from these forms only a tiny proportion of private schools' income, mostly because the rich schools are a very small minority of private schools, and the vast majority of the extra £3.6Bn needed to educate the 615,000 pupils currently educated by the private sector would have to come out of the state education budget.
Where would the £10.5Bn currently spent by parents each year on school fees go? The most likely answer is into higher land prices near good state schools, as parents move to be in their catchment areas. The inevitable result of such "edugentrification" would be that poorer families would be gradually priced out of these catchment areas and the "good" state schools would become publicly funded versions of the private schools they replaced.
Indeed, with some plans for the abolition of private schools proposing the subsuming of the private schools into the state sector, together with all their facilities, the new upper tier state schools could be exactly the same schools as the current private schools.
The only difference would be that the billions that went to fund education under the old system would go to fund higher land prices under the new.
Posted by
Bayard
at
22:05
10
comments
Labels: Education
"Climate change may be behind fall of ancient empire, say researchers"
From The Guardian:
The [Neo-Assyrian] empire emerged in about 912BC and grew to stretch from the Mediterranean down to Egypt and out to the Persian Gulf.
But shortly after the death of the king Ashurbanipal around 630BC, the empire began to crumble, with the grand city of Nineveh sacked in 612BC. By the end of the seventh century BC, the empire’s fall was complete. Now scientists say the reversal in the empire’s fortunes appears to coincide with a dramatic shift in its climate from wet to dry – a potentially crucial change in an empire reliant on crops...
Baldini added that the past can hold important lessons for the present – where fossil fuel use drives climate change.
That's hardly a blinding new insight. There are loads of examples of this happening in history, individual civilisations rising - and falling - as the weather became more - and then less - suitable for food production. The end of the Roman Warm Period ended the Roman Empire (probably).
Food production was the cornerstone of any empire until modern times, because if a few people can grow enough food for everybody, it frees up labour for empire-building (soldiers, administrators etc). Their downfall was usually a fall in food production in the areas they ruled over.
We note that:
a. That's not such a problem with a global economy, as it all evens out. Vikings in Greenland couldn't just export electronic components and then import food from somewhere else, they had to grow the food themselves or die.
b. The climate has always been changing, for better or for worse, independently of CO2 emissions, and we have muddled through somehow. Quite why "man-made climate change" (to the extent it even exists) is somehow worse than natural climate change (which clearly does exist) is never made clear.
c. What if it turns out - not that the Alarmists would ever admit it - that modest changes in global average temperatures have entirely natural causes, which are far beyond our control? Would it be panic over? Which strategies would scientists and economists be recommending then? Probably "muddle along and wait and see".
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
16:57
6
comments
Labels: climate change, History