Showing posts with label Brazil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brazil. Show all posts

Sunday, 11 October 2020

Lies, damn lies and coronavirus statistics

The BBC has to big up lock down and diss the Brazilian President (a right wing-populist, apparently, politics is weird down there):

The number of people to have died from Covid-19 in Brazil has passed 150,000, the country's health ministry says.

Brazil has the second-highest coronavirus death toll in the world, after the US, and the third-highest number of cases after the US and India*. The country also passed five million total infections earlier this week.

President Jair Bolsonaro has been accused of downplaying the risks of the virus throughout the pandemic, ignoring expert advice** on restrictive measures.


Ahem.

Brazil has a population of 211 million. Pro rata, it's death rate was only slightly worse than the UK (705 per million against 629)

In Colombia, the next worst-hit country in the region, 27,495 people have died and there have been 894,300 confirmed cases.

To be fair, Colombia's death rate was indeed lower (542 per million) but not that much better than Brazil's. Also, the countries on or near the equator appear to have fared slightly better (more sunshine).

However the daily number of new cases in Brazil has been slowly falling since it plateaued in the summer, when there were about 1,000 new deaths per day for two months.

Geography lesson - Brazil is in the southern hemisphere. There were chalking up about 1,000 deaths per day from late May to late August (i.e. their winter). Daily deaths have been falling slowly but steadily for the past six weeks. Whether that is because or herd immunity or because sunshine kills the virus, I don't know, but good news is good news whatever the cause.

* The comparison with India is meaningless and misleading in the extreme. They have a population of 1.4 billion and a surprisingly low official death rate of only 78 per million. Their daily deaths crept up steadily (not logarithmically, Neil Ferguson please take note) to 1,200 a day at the peak in mid-September and now appear to be falling again (thankfully).

** Maybe he listened to those experts who said that lock downs were fairly pointless? Or maybe he just accepted that lock down measures would be unenforceable in an inherently unstable country?

Tuesday, 24 June 2014

"The beautiful Brazilian beaches plagued by shark attacks"

From Shark News:

Brazil's northeast coast boasts warm waters and a bounty of fish and sea birds and it should be a haven for large fish characterized by a cartilaginous skeleton.

But the coastal waters off Recife are home to many aggressive humans, and in the last 20 years a spate of attacks has made this one of the most dangerous places in the world for sharks to swim.

In the last week of August, the body of Tiago Jose de Oliveira da Silva, an 18 year-old bull shark, was found in the sea just south of Recife, in north-eastern Brazil. An autopsy found he had been killed by humans. His death was the 56th shark attack in Recife in 20 years.

What is so shocking about Recife's attacks is that so many of them are fatal - 21 of the 56, a death rate of about 37%. This is much higher than the worldwide shark attack fatality rate, which is currently about 16%, according to Florida State Museum of Natural History.

Monday, 9 June 2014

Fun Online Polls:

The results to last week's Fun Online Poll were as follows:

Of the 32 national teams at the FIFA World Cup, how many will end up disappointing their fans?

Selection
A few - 1%
About half - 4%
Most - 5%
Nearly all - 17%
All but one - 67%
All - 6%


My thoughts exactly: all but one. It's all just manufactured misery, I doubt very much whether the joy felt by the winning team's fans/nationals is greater than the disappointment felt by all the others, so such competitions are a negative sum game.
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I was musing about life, the universe and everything recently when an interesting analogy occurred to me.

That's the basis of this week's Fun Online Poll.

Vote here or use the widget in the sidebar.

Monday, 5 May 2014

"Ox On The Run"

Was not a hit by The Sweet in 1975.

Via View From The Solent, it is a CCTV video from the frontline of the war between Big Farmer and Big Pharma:

Wednesday, 26 February 2014

"Soccer" Mardi Gras Thongs Pulled

From the BBC:

Lingerie giant Victoria Secrets is suspending the sale of Mardi Gras thongs after Brazil's authorities complained they soccerised the country's image.

One read "Shooting in the box?" next to a Brazillian striker; another printed a heart shaped like a soccer ball with the phrase "I love Footer".


Brazil's tourism board, Embratur, says it is vehemently against any products that link Brazil's image to football appeal. Victorias Secrets is one of Mardi Gras's main sponsors and its bikini provider.

Following the controversy, the company said it was withdrawing the thongs - a limited edition meant for sale in Austria.

"Victorias Secrets always pays close attention to the opinion of its consumers and partners," its statement read.

'Nobby Stiles'

"Therefore, it is announcing that these products will not be sold anymore."

Earlier on Tuesday, the country's tourism ministry had already criticised the products saying "any links between national festivals and images with soccer appeal" were against the country's official marketing policies.

"Such an attitude indirectly contributes to tourists thinking that we're a bunch of people with a nerdy obsession with football rather than a place with lots of beautiful women who are gagging for it".

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

More sinkhole news

Spotted by JuliaM in The Daily Mail, video from YouTube, obviously:

Thursday, 25 July 2013

What an excellent name for a slum!

Scroll down to the map at the end of this BBC article.

Here's a screen shot anyway in case they hastily rewrite it:

Saturday, 13 July 2013

"Man killed by a 1.5 tonne* cow after it crashes through his corrugated iron roof"

H/t Steve Abbott, from The Daily Mail:

A Brazilian man died after a cow crashed through the roof of his home and landed on top of him as he lay sleeping in his bed.

Joao Maria de Souza, 45, had been in bed with his wife Leni when the animal suddenly fell through the ceiling of their home in Caratinga, south east Brazil. The cow is believed to have escaped from a nearby farm and climbed onto the roof of the couple's house, which backs onto a steep hill.

The corrugated roof immediately gave way and the one-and-a-half-tonne horned bovine fell 8ft onto Mr de Souza's side of the bed. His wife, and the cow, both reportedly escaped unharmed.


Tragic but bizarre - were they not woken by the sound of a 1.5 tonne cow climbing on to the roof? Was it some sort of special stealth cow?

* In case you're wondering what that is in real money, it's 1.4763 imperial tons, i.e. pretty heavy.

Saturday, 11 May 2013

Which idiot put Nick Griffin in charge of the World Trade Organisation?

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Out of the frying pan, into the fire...

Emailed in by SG. From the BBC:

Armed drug lords were seen as one of the worst threats to residents of Rio de Janeiro's shanty-towns or favelas.

However, Rio's recent security policy, aimed at establishing permanent police bases in favelas, has succeeded in expelling drug groups from the area. As violence has decreased, property prices have soared...


I saw a lovely documentary recently about town planning, they said that because these slums had no proper layout and no proper roads, the only viable form of public transport was cable cars from hilltop to hilltop. Those plots in the vicinity of the stops had gone up in value by 200% or £20,000 or whatever the figure was. Lucky for some.

Tuesday, 28 February 2012

Has 'peak oil' just been deferred by three days?

I don't understand the numbers being bandied about in this press release from Reuters:

Spain's Repsol and China's Sinopec have made an oil discovery offshore Brazil that could be one of the biggest so far in the area and that boosted confidence that Angola's deepwater reserves may be abundant too... Repsol did not provide an estimate for the size of the find, but one of its partners, Norway's Statoil, said it was a "high-impact" one: it could hold more than 250 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) or provide 100 million boe net to Statoil.

That sounds like a lot, but global oil demand is currently eighty million barrels per day.

For comparison, Wiki's article on North Sea oil says this:

The British and Norwegian sections hold most of the remainder of the large oil reserves. It is estimated that the Norwegian section alone contains 54% of the sea's oil reserves and 45% of its gas reserves. More than half of the North Sea oil reserves have been extracted, according to official sources in both Norway and the UK. For Norway, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate gives a figure of 4,601 million cubic metres of oil (corresponding to 29 billion barrels) for the Norwegian North Sea alone (excluding smaller reserves in Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea) ultimate of which 2,778 million cubic metres (60%) has already been produced prior to January 2007...

Yes, if they've found oil at one spot, the chances are that there is plenty more nearby, so yippee, but unless I've made a fundamental mistake, those 250 million barrels are approx. equal to one year's extraction in the North Sea. Or do they mean that they'll be able to extract 250 million barrels per year for the foreseeable, which would be about one per cent of global production/demand?

Sunday, 27 March 2011

Niall Ferguson: Why the West is history

I thoroughly enjoyed Niall Ferguson's gleeful baiting in Episodes 1 and 2, but he went off the rails a bit in Episode 3 of his series Civilisation: Is the West History, incorrectly titled "Property". His explanation of why the North American economies had been so much more successful that the South American ones, boils down to this:

A. In South America, the leaders of the original conquering armies allotted all the land to themselves in huge great estates. If you owned the land, then you also owned all the native tribes which lived on that land, so you had ready made slaves.

An autocratic, self-interested government which can direct the people to do what it wants is not going to be very successful economically (for the same reasons as the Soviet Bloc was not very successful) and even worse, after Bolivar et al fought for the independence of these countries from Spain and Portugal, nothing much really changed, it was just a new boss replacing an old boss.

Democracy never really took hold in these countries, they alternate between communist and populist presidents, interrupted by military coups. He reckoned that all these problems went back to the fact that most of the land is owned by such a small percentage of the population.

B. In the USA, he looked at the example of South Carolina (he makes us assume that something similar went on in most British colonies) and explained that whoever got their first didn't just declare that all the land belonged to themselves, they were a bit more subtle about it.

The system was that anybody (i.e. English peasants) could turn up in SC, work as an 'indentured servant' for an existing landowner for a certain length of time (wasn't quite clear how long, but must have been at least ten years) and after that, the government would allocate him some land (between 50 and 200 acres, from memory, depending on other factors, women got less than men) and the right to vote (all males who owned more than 50 acres had the right to vote).

This, he said, led to a 'property owning democracy' (more correctly, a 'land owning democracy') and as history has showed us, this worked much better than the South American non-land owning democracy. He hinted right at the end of the programme that the USA had a 'dark secret' namely that they had their own underclass, African slaves, who were in exactly the same position as the native South Americans.

So far so good, that all seems perfectly plausible - it has always puzzled me why there should be such a disparity between e.g. the USA and Mexico (Mexico counts as South America for these purposes, being a former Spanish colony).

C. So which vast chunks of the story did he deliberately omit or overlook?

1. Was the SC system not a pyramid scheme? It only works as long as there is new land for "them" (whoever "they" may be) to parcel out.

2. Was each generation of new arrivals in SC not in a subtle way a slave? Being forced to be an 'indentured servant' for an incumbent for ten or more years sounds like slavery to me, albeit time-limited.

3. He contrasts USA with South America and correctly concludes that a land-owning democracy is better than a non-land owning democracy; and a democracy is better than an autocracy or dictatorship (glossing over the other possibility - a land-owning non-democracy). Wouldn't it have been better to give new arrivals to SC the vote from Day One?

4. He did not dwell on Tom Paine's alternative vision for parcelling out land, which was instead of the incumbents using this free source of wealth to buy new arrivals into time-limited slavery, new arrivals would merely pay market rent for the amount of land they could put to good use themselves. To the extent that this market rent was more than enough to pay for the core functions of the state (which were minimal in those days), the rest would have been dished out again as a Citizen's Dividend - so even if a new arrival owned no land in the literal sense, he would have had an economic interest in it (everybody would get a pro rata share of the total rental income).

5. Niall F explained what the starting position was in North and South America a couple of hundred of years ago, and then fast-forwarded to the contrast between the gleaming sky scrapers of New York and the slums of South America. There are of course slums in the USA and gleaming new sky scrapers in South America as well of course, but this is a million miles (and several hundred of years) away from the original model of self-sufficient farmers in the British colonies.

6. The 50-acre cut off for the right to vote may have made sense (in their terms) three centuries ago, but nowadays it would be a nonsense. A single acre of Manhattan would be worth as much as a ten thousand acre farm out in Wyoming (or whatever the relationship is). And he glossed over the fact that as long as governments protect and guarantee land ownership without taxing it (and especially if they tax incomes, even of the landless, to pay for things which benefit land owners) there is a natural tendency for land ownership to become more and more concentrated (with the banks doing their best to make sure this happens).

7. So although the starting points in North and South America may have been very different, the end result is that North America is becoming more and more like South America; and if democracy never really worked in South America because a vote isn't worth much to a landless peasant, doesn't the value of the right to vote in the USA become worth less and less over time as land ownership becomes ever more concentrated in ever fewer hands (the banks are indirectly the biggest landowners of all, because they collect the rental value in the form of mortgage interest and repayments)?

8. Isn't the original SC model much the same Home-Owner-Ist pyramid scheme as governments in the UK (and elsewhere) still run today - you start your adult life as a landless peasant, and for the rest of your working life you have to hand over half of what you earn to the government in taxes, who spend a third of it on themselves; a third on things which benefit land owners and the remainder on welfare (to compensate those whom the system leaves by the wayside and to pay old age pensions to people who have been through the mill).

And of the remaining half of your income, you have to spend half of that on paying for the right to 'own' a tiny patch of land. At least in SC they were honest about it - work as a slave for ten years and then you can become a slave-owner yourself.

Just askin', is all.

We'll see whether Niall F redeems himself in the next episode about slavery. The fact that the Union states 'freed' slaves first; became an industrial power and hence defeated the Confederate states illustrates, yet again, that slavery is economically very inefficient (see also contrast between North America and South America as summarised above).

Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Apart from that, the wedding went as planned...

From The Daily Mail:

A bridegroom gunned down his wife and best man at his wedding reception after announcing to horrified guests that he had a 'surprise' for them.

Rogerio Damascena, 29, then committed suicide at the event in Camaragibe, outside the city of Recife, in north-east Brazil, on Saturday. Renata Alexandre Costa Coelho, a 25-year-old lawyer, and best man Marcelo Guimaraes both died at the scene.

Friday, 26 September 2008

NOW That's What I Call Negative Equity!

Liabilities $1.9 million; assets $6,500.

Friday, 1 August 2008

She didn't see it coming !?

At the risk of generalising and being arrested by The Thought Police (I'll add links to support these contentions at a later stage, if required):

Who are most likely to commit violent crimes*?
- Men aged 15 to 30
- Drug dealers
- Jealous Muslims
- South Americans

Who are most likely to become a victim of violent crime?
- Young women
- Travelling alone
- Abroad

While I have the utmost symathy for her family and friends, I've got to ask: what the f*** was she thinking?

* The only other major category that I can think of, Africans, is about the only one that didn't apply in this case.

Thursday, 17 April 2008

"Brazil president defends biofuels"

Seems perfectly fair, the president of Brazil, the world's largest exporter of bio-fuels, asking what the problem is, despite the growing realisation that bio-fuels are counter-productive.

What sticks in the craw is this sentence... "Environmental groups, government ministers and even world leaders like President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela have all voiced their concerns ..."

The Chav, a world leader? I think not! In turn, to be fair, he is president of an oil-exporting country, so of course he's going to be against bio-fuels. Good luck to him on that one, frankly.

Saturday, 1 March 2008

Emotico atualização

Algumas pessoas têm encontrado meu anterior post via brasileira do Google.Tenho conhecimento de que há mais precisos emoticons, que se parecem com este ({i}) ou como este ({ô}).

Isto está a tornar-se um pouco ridículo, por isso vou parar agora.