Mike "Mish" Shedlock in the comments at Golem XIV links to his own blog where he in turn posts an email from somebody who has done his homework:
I read with interest your article on the Cyprus bailout deal. After a quick review of the most recent financial statements of the four publicly listed Cypriot banks as shown on their websites, it is notable that a simple alternative proposal could protect the country from bankruptcy and make its depositors whole.
By wiping out 100% of the equity, 100% of the bondholders, and 17% of the banks’ liability to central banks, the Cypriots could stabilize their banking system (based on the 5.8Bn EUR figure being discussed) without penalizing local savers.
Instead of raising 5.8Bn EUR from depositors, it could raise 1.4Bn from combined market cap, 2.0Bn from bondholders and preferred shareholders, and 2.4Bn of the 14.3Bn in combined Central Bank loans (Cypriot and ECB) it has on its books. This assumes zero contribution from the Cypriot subsidiaries of foreign banks so it may be conservative.
If the banking system is bankrupt, anything other than an Alice-in-Wonderland recovery system suggests that the order of liquidation is shareholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, Central Bank creditors, and THEN depositors. If 10Bn or even 17Bn EUR is truly required, then coincidentally up to 17.7Bn EUR is available from equity holders, debt holders, and Central Bank creditors without impairing a euro cent from depositors.
That's much the same picture as with UK banks. Their losses (i.e. bad debts) so far as a percentage of total assets were relatively small (certainly less than 5%, even in the case of Northern Rock) and they could have been straightened out by converting a proportion (about a quarter or a third) of the bonds they have in issue to share capital. This might or might not involve cancelling existing shares, that's a minor issue. There was no actual need for the taxpayer to pay for bank bail-outs, that was just pilfering and looting on a grand scale during the smokescreen of a recession.
The idea of cancelling loans from the government is a bit off piste, because that's effectively saying that income taxpayers should pay it. I think that the general idea here was that they didn't want Cyprus to do like Ireland, have the government underwrite the banks and then go even more horribly bankrupt itself.
Writing down deposits and/or converting them to share capital is also a kind of tax (some have described the Cyprus idea as a "wealth tax") but even then, to the extent that a share capital and bond capital write-off won't cover the losses, it is far better to have a one-off specific "tax" on depositors (or pro rata write down of deposits) and have done with it*, than it is to bail out banks via inflation, low interest rates (these two are also "wealth taxes") and taxes on earned income (the worst kind of tax), which is what they have been doing in the UK (as Philip Inman says in The Guardian).
* Or even better, convert everything back to deposits, sack the top echelons of "management" and turn the bank into a building society again.
Monday, 18 March 2013
Cyprus debt-for -equity swap: update
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
19:49
17
comments
Labels: Banking, Cyprus, Debt for equity swaps, Subsidies
Fun Online Polls: The Weather & Press Regulation
On a good turnout of 105 votes, thanks to everybody who took part, the responses to last week's Fun Online Poll were as follows:
How has weather in the UK changed over the last ten or fifteen years? Multiple selections allowed.
Warmer - 9 votes
About the same temperature - 49 votes
Colder - 52 votes
Drier - 7 votes
About the same rainfall - 42 votes
Wetter - 44 votes
More extreme - 18 votes
Less extreme - 6 votes
Other, please specify - 3 votes
So if we cancel out some of the warmer/colder and the drier/wetter votes (it can't be both), overall I'd say our impression is that it's got slightly colder and slightly wetter and perhaps ever so slightly more "extreme", whatever that is. Which is pretty much my own impression. I'm starting to miss that lovely global warming we had in the 1990s and early 2000s. At least it cut down your heating bills.
Best "other" suggestion: ViewFromTheSolent: windier/less windy/about the same
-----------------------------------
The media have wasted plenty of column inches and airtime on this whole press regulation thing.
I can't say I've paid much attention, as far as I am concerned, this is a minor spat between different factions of the ruling classes as to who gets to control the propaganda outlets, because let's be honest, most of the media is government propaganda. The BBC is official leftie establishment propaganda, the Guardian and Mirror do large government, high tax and spend propaganda; the rest of the newspapers (Daily Mailexpressgraph) do Home-Owner-Ist propaganda for the real ruling classes, the landowners and bankers and The Sun can be relied on to stoke class hatred (against the benefit claiming classes and the EU ruling class).
So that's this week's Fun Online Poll: "Press regulation: is anybody actually bothered?"
Vote here or use the widget in the sidebar.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
18:41
0
comments
"The Treasury, which is sensitive to charges that it massaged the figures..."
Via BobE, from The Guardian:
The changes [to long term care funding] will be funded by introducing the new single-tier pension in 2016, a year earlier than planned, benefiting an extra 400,000 people. By abolishing the current two-tier pension system, the government will end the system of contracting out, thereby generating an extra £5.5bn for the exchequer in higher national insurance contributions (NICs). This will help to fund the increased costs in social care, estimated at £1bn a year, and the new pension system.
The Treasury, which is sensitive to charges that it massaged the figures at the time of the autumn statement last December to ensure that borrowing did not rise, went out of its way to show how the new single-tier pension will net additional revenues.
More than half (£3.3bn) will come from NICs by public sector employers, £0.6bn from NICs by private sector employers and £1.6bn from employee NICs. Treasury sources insisted this would "not be used as a net revenue raiser for the Treasury".
FFS.
The Treasury (i.e. the government) is going to raise £3.3 billion a year by making the government pay higher NICs for public sector employees?
Are people really stupid enough to not spot that this is figure-massaging on an epic scale?
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
14:00
6
comments
Labels: Accounting
"Syria: Arms embargo relaxation would ease distress, says Hague"
From the BBC:
A failure to supply weapons to rebel fighters in Syria would add to the risk of "extreme economic distress" in the UK's defence industry, William Hague has warned.
The foreign secretary said movement of arms would have to be "very carefully controlled" to ensure that full payment was received by hard-pressed UK weapons exporters. But the government had to "weigh some risks against other risks", he added.
The prime minister has urged the European Union to end its embargo on the supply of UK and French arms to Syria. Currently the UK's arms manufacturers are sending "non-lethal" equipment to help the forces opposed to President Bashar al-Assad, but they have requested permission to provide further assistance.
Up to 70,000 people have been killed in Syria and a million refugees have fled the country since the crisis began two years ago.
The latest UN figures show that two million have been internally displaced, while 400,000 have fled abroad since the start of the year, with the largest number seeking shelter in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt. The UK has provided £139m to help build contacts with possible customers in refugee camps.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
12:06
0
comments
Labels: Exports, Islamists, Syria, Warfare, WIlliam Hague
Home-Owner-Ist logic: More supply = higher prices
From the BBC:
A million home owners who do not live full time in their property could see their council tax rocket in April, as most automatic discounts are to end. The change, which will affect second homes and empty properties in England, could see bills for 2013-14 rise by 200%...(1)
Katrina bought a property in Rotherham to renovate while she still lived with her mother. Her council tax will rise from just under £50 a month to almost £150 as a 50% reduction becomes a 50% premium.
"There is no law against taking a long time to get it renovated. If they'd told us a year ago maybe I could've pushed and got it finished. But I've been given less than a month's notice."(2)
... Landlords too will find their costs go up. At the moment they get six months free of council tax between lettings of unfurnished property. But from April that will end.
Adrian Thompson, Director of the Guild of Residential Landlords rents many properties out in the North of England. He says rents will have to rise. "I can see no choice in the matter. Returns are very low anyway. I can't see any choice."(3)
1) As a poor cousin of LVT, charging full Council Tax on empty and second homes might, at the margin, encourage them to be brought into use. We observed the same effect when the government tightened up the rules on empty property discounts for Business Rates a few years ago.
2) Which sort of illustrates the point. Hopefully she'll now get on with it.
3) Bizarre. There will be slightly more supply and the same number of people looking for homes to rent, which will push rents down, however slightly. And council tax payable during void periods cannot possibly affect the amount which tenants are willing to pay while they actually live there, why would it? Why is it their problem?
If anything, landlords will be dropping rents (or doing up their empty ones all the quicker) to ensure that they have the shortest void periods. Or has he so far been generously charging lower rents than he could have done?
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
10:34
8
comments
Labels: Commonsense, Council Tax, Economics, Home-Owner-Ism
"Sobs as lachrymose players say goodbye to pregnant coach, 30, killed along with her unborn son"
From The Daily Mail:
Devastated lachrymose players at a small Pennsylvania college bid goodbye on Sunday to their team coach who was killed, along with her unborn son, when the team coach crashed on the highway this weekend...
Players and coaches from Seton Hill were among 23 people aboard when the coach crashed into a tree Saturday morning on the Pennsylvania Turnpike outside Harrisburg. The team was headed to an afternoon game at Millersville University, about 50 miles from the crash site in central Pennsylvania.(1)
Police are investigating the cause.
1) That's a funny way of giving directions:
"Where's the match?"
"Oh, about fifty miles from the crash site."
"How will we recognise the crash site?"
"There's a tree, you won't miss it."
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
08:26
3
comments
Labels: Dyslexia
Sunday, 17 March 2013
Cyprus does debt-for-equity swaps on a grand scale
Via Little Professor at HPC, from the BBC:
People in Cyprus have reacted with shock to news of a one-off levy of up to 10% on savings as part of a 10bn-euro (£8.7bn; $13bn) bailout agreed in Brussels.(1) Savers could be seen queuing at cash machines amid resentment at the charge.(2)
The deal reached with euro partners and the IMF marks a radical departure from previous international aid packages.(3) President Nicos Anastasiades defended it as a "painful" step, taken to avoid a disorderly bankruptcy. It had, he said in a statement, been a choice between the "catastrophic scenario of disorderly bankruptcy or the scenario of a painful but controlled management of the crisis"...
Alan, a British expatriate saver in Cyprus, told BBC News: "This is robbery and we must get the EU to stop this. We retire and bring our savings to a bank in Cyprus and they can just take our money away without permission and then say we have shares in a bankrupt bank."(4)
Maria Zembyla, from Nicosia, said the levy would make a "big dent" in her family's savings and "erode the investor confidence".(5) "Russians that currently keep the economy afloat will leave the country along with their money,"(6) she added.
According to Reuters news agency, almost half of the depositors in Cyprus are believed to be non-resident Russians.(6)
1) It's not a "levy", it's a debt-for-equity swap, read the small print:
• Depositors with under 100,000 euros deposited must pay 6.75%
• Those with more than 100,000 in their accounts must pay 9.9%
• Depositors will be compensated with the equivalent amount in shares in their banks
• The levy is a one-off measure
A bank's gross assets (primarily money lent to borrowers) are worth whatever they are worth; if you deduct deposits (which are liabilities of the bank) and other liabilities (bonds etc), what you are left over with is net assets which 'belong' to shareholders and which (very broadly speaking) are equal to the value of the shares (plus or minus a bit). So all things being equal, if you cancel EUR 1 of deposits, the value of the shares goes up by (very broadly speaking) EUR 1. Nobody actually loses out from this. If the deposit cancellation is sufficiently large to turn an insolvent bank back into a solvent one, there might be a net overall gain; so you lose EUR1 of deposits and receive shares which you could sell for EUR 1.50. It all depends.
2) Clearly, you have to do these things overnight without prior warning.
3) Because this "package" is not international. It's the sort of thing which any country can do for itself.
4) Their country, their rules, Alan. Besides, the bank won't be bankrupt any more once the deposits have been partly converted into share capital.
5) "Investor confidence" evaporated years ago. And as Stillthinking says in a separate thread at HPC: "The real not nominal reduction is about the same as inflationary losses in the UK over a three year period. Personally I would prefer the "there you are we is having it sonny" approach to just cowardly underhand inflationary skanking."
6) That's the interesting bit, isn't it, will the Cyprus government allow the Russians to whip out their deposits first? If they do, then the proportion of deposits of residents is going to have to double; if they don't then Cyprus' reputation as a handy little tax haven/place for Russians to hide money might take a bit of a knock. Tough call.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
10:00
12
comments
Labels: Cyprus, Debt for equity swaps, Russia
Saturday, 16 March 2013
"The Bedroom Tax" war of waffle
Polly Toynbee in The Guardian kicks off the festival of f-wittery with this:
Mass evictions (1) of the most vulnerable are no way to tackle the housing benefit bill,(2) and we must do all we can to stop them... One distraught woman who is paid a carer's allowance for looking after her severely mentally ill brother (along with her own three children), said she would have to leave him to social services: his room would now be counted as "spare" because a brother doesn't count as family."(3)
1) There won't be "mass evictions", the Tory policy, as ill-judged as it might be does superficially have the reasonable aim to optimise use of existing council housing. So in theory at least, some council tenants will trade up and some will trade down; they will swap places. So this might be part of the answer, but the Tories are - maliciously and deliberately - overlooking the fact that there is no natural limit to the amount of social housing; the fact that there is so little of it is a purely political decision, it's basic Home-Owner-Ism.
2) The total cost of Housing Benefit for social tenants is precisely £ zero. The council/Housing Association (collectively referred to as "RSL") demands a made-up figure for rent which some tenants can't afford and then it gives them an equal and opposite amount in Housing Benefit. It's about as daft as me charging my kids £100 a week rent each and then giving them £100 each pocket money to help them pay the rent. So what the policy boils down to is making those people who currently live for free paying a little bit back into the system.
3) Shroud waving. Ignore. She says later on that the extra charge per "spare" bedroom will be £14 a week; don't disabled people get given extra money, why can't the £14 come out of that? It doesn't seem like an unreasonable amount to me.
She veers a bit closer to the real issue here, but then deftly veers away again:
The cuts that make most noise are those deliberately devised as eyecatching political crowd-pleasers, yet often saving small sums. Exploiting one-off anecdotes about benefit "scroungers" in high-rent Kensington palaces may have worked as a clever cover,(4) but the truth about the imminent bedroom tax is starting to emerge.
Well over a third of social housing tenants have a "spare" room and must pay an average £14 a week more – £700 a year – or move out. That's 20% of unemployment pay.(5) The north is harder hit as its social housing, on cheaper land, has more bedrooms: in Hull 4,700 families are "over-occupiers", with only 73 one-bed flats to move to. In Brighton a thousand families are hit,(6) as the council expects to lose £1m in rent arrears.
4) Spot on. Any sane person is against the cash subsidies for private landlords of £8 billion a year, although the Homey ire is directed at the tenant not the landlord, they then direct that anger against social housing generally. The hatred which the Home-Owner-Ists have towards social housing is unfathomable to me:
Claim #1: "It't not fair that the undeserving poor get to live somewhere for very cheap or for free." Subtext: I have to work hard and pay a shed load in tax and then pay rent or mortgage out of my own income.
Fair enough, so I counter this with: "We've plenty of land to build more social housing on; as long as the RSL is getting more than £80 a week in rent, then it has covered its costs; anything more than that and it is into profit, which is great - it's like Land Value Tax. Then everybody who wants no truck with 'the property ladder' can have a council house with low rent and a secure tenancy."
Claim #2: "But I don't want to live on a council estate, they are full of low-lifes. Do you not remember the horrible tower blocks from the 1960s?"
Rational response: "Well nobody says you have to live in one. You can stay where you are now if you're happy with that, and if you are renting privately, then by and large, your rent will go down a bit, win-win! The fact that other people send their children to state school doesn't stop anybody sending their children to a private school, does it?
"Further, there is let's assume a fixed number of low-lifes, one per cent of the population. If there is only enough social housing for twenty per cent of the population, then one-in-twenty people on a council estate is a low-life, which is such a high concentration as to drag the whole estate down. If everybody - including the vast majority of people who are perfectly decent neighbours lived in a council house, then a) that does not increase the number of low-lifes, it spreads them more thinly and b) the sensible policy is to try and corral the one-per cent incorrigible low-lifes into sink estates at the edge of town (effectively open prisons) which means the everybody else can live on nicer estates among nice people."
5) I really don't think that being asked to pay a small minimum is unreasonable. Price rationing is the best form of rationing. If the residents concerned are really that poor, living off welfare, maybe £14 is too high. The whole idea of working out who has a "spare bedroom" is a nonsense on stilts anyway, it's a bureaucratic nightmare and, unlike LVT assessments, really would involve "inspectors entering people's homes".
It would be far cleverer to just charge a minimum rent of £x per week per room and to dock that straight from people's benefit payments, forget about Housing Benefit. Maybe a charge of £5 per room is enough to achieve the desired right-sizing and home-swapping (if that is all you wish to achieve, rather than a bash-the-poor crusade). So some people (larger households with some earned income in smaller homes) would end up a bit better off; and other people (smaller households with no earned income in larger homes) would end up a bit worse off; the two households just have to swap places.
6) This is a land value thing. Hull is a far less desirable area than Brighton, so private rents are much higher in Brighton, so there are only 9,700 people on the waiting list for social housing in Hull and 16,000 in Brighton, and it appears that even these indirect market force means that social housing in Brighton is more efficiently allocated.
Per capita population, that's one-in-twenty-six in Hull one-in-fifteen in Brighton and in London of course it's one in ten (plus an unknown number who never even bother putting their name down because they know it is hopeless).
So it is important to look at this on a national rather than local level, so the charge per room ought to be £3 per room in Hull, £5 in Brighton and £10 in London (or whatever). Again, a bit like Land Value Tax.
And then in the comments there's the usual mix of leftie drivel, shroud waving and Home-Owner-Ist crap which I can't be bothered rebutting again, i.e.
a) blame the immigrants, or blame Labour who allowed them in.
b) social housing should be for a narrowly defined category of people - the hard-working poor. If people earn nothing they don't deserve a home; and people who have done all right for themselves (Bob Crow, Frank Dobson) don't deserve it either.
c) A lot of people are labouring under the delusion that there is a fixed or limited amount of social housing, there isn't. That's like saying "there is a fixed number of ring-tones for mobile phones" or "there is a fixed number of television sets".
d) If you don't want to pay the Bedroom Tax, then buy your own house.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
13:11
10
comments
Labels: Housing Benefit, Polly Toynbee, Social housing
Friday, 15 March 2013
Practice makes perfect
Boris Johnson plays himself to a tee in an interview with The Sun:
"They should save their breath. Put their shoulders to the wheel, all hands to the mast, and all shoot from the same trench — to mix my metaphors."
That actually made me smile, briefly. On reflection, it would have been funnier if he had said "to mix my similes".
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
18:53
1 comments
Labels: Boris Johnson, English
Er Liam .. about that
"We're fundamentally different to this bunch of horrible, nasty, benefit grabbing, benefit removing, forced labour and illegal sanctions bastards" um, stance..."
Forgive me for saying so, but it doesn't quite square with your Party backing them on a emergency vote to approve retrospective legislation to avoid having to "compensate" people they've been er less than honest to by using legislative powers that didn't exist to apply illegal sanctions does it .. or maybe it does, I never can quite get my head around the intricate complexities of politics...
Or maybe the G have been hearing noises via "crossed grapevines" - which if it was the case I would have expected someone on "your side" - say the shadow Work and Pensions secretary, to be hurriedly at least tweeting "The G story is rubbish, no way would we" ... but so far nothing from you since your web-site posting on Monday -
Work Scheme refunds could cost millions
Posted on 11 March 2013 | No comments yet
Liam Byrne MP, Labour’s Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, responding to reports in the Daily Telegraph that ‘Work Scheme refunds could cost millions’, said:
“Bungling DWP ministers have turned the Work Programme into a West Coast mainline-style fiasco. Hundreds of thousands of sanctions might now be illegal because Iain Duncan Smith messed up the regulations and now the taxpayer might be on the hook for over £100 million.
“It simply beggars belief that this Government is now so incompetent it can’t even organise a simple work experience scheme. We’ll be demanding ministers come to Parliament urgently to explain themselves.”
Demanding they come explain themselves? In return for a promise to back their emergency legislation which removes the obligation to make amends to those affected by that "illegal sanctions" incompetence..?
"The Guardian understands that Labour will support the fast-tracked bill with some further safeguards and that negotiations with the coalition are ongoing"
A DWP spokesperson said: "This legislation will protect taxpayers and make sure we won't be paying back money to people who didn't do enough to find work."
That "we aren't going to pay up JSA that was withheld from claimants under sanction for not agreeing to do something we didn't actually have the legal power to sanction them for not agreeing to do" would appear to run the risk of re-opening the debate on "what the Work Programme is actually for - to help make people seeking work better fitted to achieve that or just to punish them for not having a job" [whilst funnelling large quantities of taxpayer funds to ERSA members - but that's not the issue here] were there someone willing to take it up on the floor of the House but what do I know - Over to you Liam?
DWP seeks law change to avoid benefit repayments after Poundland ruling
The Department for Work and Pensions has introduced emergency legislation to reverse the outcome of a court of appeal decision and "protect the national economy" from a £130m payout to jobseekers deemed to have been unlawfully punished.
The retroactive legislation, published on Thursday evening and expected to be rushed through parliament on Tuesday, will effectively strike down a decision by three senior judges and deny benefit claimants an average payout of between £530 and £570 each.
Posted by
Bob E
at
17:16
0
comments
Labels: Incompetence, Labour, Liam Byrne, Work Programme