From CityWire:
There is more than one explanation for why these investors might be nervous about the future value of their bonds.
The optimistic view is that investors sold their bonds because they thought that expensive attempts to kick-start the economy would work. These investors were selling their bonds in order to make more money elsewhere as the recovery gathers steam.
The pessimistic view is that investors were sold their bonds because they thought that expensive attempts to kick-start the economy would fail and that the US would be saddled with an even more massive debt than it had before. Although a default by the US is not seen as likely, the size of the debt could hobble growth. Meanwhile the cash pumped into the system from could result in inflation that would eat away at the value of the income stream and the loan itself.
Which yet again illustrates that experts aren't right more often than amateurs, they just have a more sophisticated explanation for why they were wrong.
So here's my third (and equally plausible) explanation: it is quite simply the case that those naughty speculators had pushed bond prices to above and hence interest rates to below anything rational (2.5% fixed for ten year bonds) and then the head of the pack said "All right chaps, we've overdone it now, this is silly. Nobody wants to invest for less than than 3.5%, what with the risks of inflation and all, so let's start selling again."
Here's a chart from the excellent Fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk website:
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Explaining last week's sell off in US Treasury Bonds
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
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09:52
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Labels: Interest rates, Speculation, USA
Saturday, 11 December 2010
Killer Arguments Against LVT, not (84)
The ever reliable Sobers, still on top form:
Well now you're introducing an entirely different valuation system that involves fiddling with the size of each individual house/plot of land, meaning excessive bureaucracy again, appeals, tribunals etc etc.
If you're going down that route you might as well value every house individually and be done with it. Then everyone pays exactly in proportion to the value of their property, not the size of their garden.
Before we argue about vaguely defined principles and hypotheticals, let's look at the nice simple robust system I have explained time and again that would get us three-quarters of the way there. For sure, there are infinite tweaks we can introduce*, but let's look at the practicalities:
1. HM Revenue & Customs collect most taxes, administer Tax Credits and employ 200,000 people (71,000 civil servants directly plus probably twice as many again in back up stuff, outsourced functions to 'consultancies' etc). From personal experience, I would guess that the private sector employs five times as many people to prepare the income tax returns, the monthly and annual PAYE, the corporation tax returns, the VAT returns.
2. That's a million people doing something of no social value, or about three per cent of the working population - which of its own must reduce our GDP by about three per cent. And that's not including the dead weight costs - GDP would be about a third higher without VAT, National Insurance, income tax, corporation tax etc - that's £300 - £400 billion a year we are flushing down the toilet.
3. The whole problem repeats itself with the welfare system, so replacing the whole welfare state with a Citizen's Income (the flip side of Land Value Tax) would reduce running costs and fraud/error by about £10 billion and reduce the dead weight costs (i.e. those people who prefer to stay on the dole rather than go out to work) by another £100 billion.
4. As regards taxes and subsidies related to land and buildings, there are a whole load more civil servants working for e.g. Council Tax and Business rates administration and collection, Council Tax Benefits office, Capital Taxes Office (Inheritance tax), HM Land Registry, Valuation Office Agency (for Business Rates), Land Valuation and Housing Tribunals, TV licence fee collection, DEFRA to administration CAP subsidies, Local authority planning departments etc etc, and no doubt five times as many again in the private sector doing battle with them.
5. As I have explained, the ideal basic geographic unit for doing valuations is a postcode sector, there are 10,000 sectors with about 3,000 addresses in each. Even if it took one civil servant a whole year to arrive at some half way decent compromise for each sector, that's a one-off cost of ten thousand civil servants for one year only - in future years, a few thousand would be enough. Reality check: there are about 4,000 civil servants at the VOA alone, who regularly revalue each individual commercial building (or each office within a larger building) for Business Rates (about ten per cent of all addresses in the UK), which is far, far, too complicated, they could make do with a tenth as many
6. There is an irreducible minimum of 6,000 working for HM Land Registry, and it would be very easy to expand their duties slightly, so that they can update values as they go along (it all boils down to address, plot size and selling prices of land and buildings in that postcode sector), i.e. on an ongoing basis, ten thousand people could run the entire tax system, with half as many again to run the Citizen's Income scheme (which overlaps with people updating the electoral roll and the Registrar of births, marriages and deaths).
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* Here's another tweak - there are exemptions that relate to the plot itself and exemptions that relate to the individual who currently 'owns' the plot. If in the first year the valuer concedes that some houses are to be treated as having a plot size of 300 sq yards and not 400 sq yards because the houses on that street tend to sell for less than others in the sector, this could be treated as a 'personal' exemption rather than a site-specific one, and the exemption is only valid as long as the current owner(s) remain in it as their only and main residence.
The exemption will simply not apply to future purchasers, so when the house is next sold (or the current owners die), the next owner has to pay on the full 400 sq yards. This of course depresses the selling price accordingly, so the next owner is no worse off, and the previous owner has in effect merely deferred the tax he has to pay, and in future, valuations are even easier. And the people who stepped up to the oche and paid on the full 400 sq yards like gentlemen heave a sigh of relief, because mathematically, their tax bill goes down slightly each time an old exemption expires.
To remind you how this works in real life, I bought a 3-bed terrace which was in Band D for council tax, but I did a loft conversion to make it a 5-bed, and the council noted that after the next sale, it would be treated as Band E. So I got no tax increase as a result of the loft conversion, but the amount I eventually sold the house for was slightly lower than it would have been had it remained in Band D.
Other exemptions are high-level politically motivated ones, like giving exemptions, discounts or a deferment option to pensioners, Righteous organisations and so on. These can also be time-limited, i.e. a council can extend the exemptions for pensioners only to pensioners who have lived in the area for a minimum number of years. It's a beggar-thy-neighbour game, as any rational council will want to attract as many people as possible prepared to pay full whack, i.e. businesses and young people with a job.
If a local council is dominated by Muslim councillors and it exempts mosques, well that exemption only holds until and unless it is replaced by a new council with a majority of atheist or Christian councillors, who promptly exempt libraries and churches instead.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
15:16
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Labels: KLN, Land Value Tax, Public sector employees
Killer Arguments Against LVT, not (83)
a) Land Value Tax would be perceived as 'unfair', because:
You have to remember in the UK a large part of the value of the house is not its size, or its state of repair, or its location to amenities, but the social class of the neighbours. Put bluntly, no-one wants to live next door to chavs, and property prices reflect this. An average based system on [postcode sectors] can never take this into account, and will always produce 'unfair' outcomes.
If you are going to sell LVT to the masses, they are not going to be happy if they are paying more than someone mile away, who has a more expensive house than they do. And because of who lives in rough areas, its poorer people who will end up paying the same as the wealthier people in their middle class housing estates down the road.
Summary: it's 'unfair' because people in the cheaper parts of a postcode sector would pay the same rate as people in the nicer parts.
b) LVT would also be 'unfair' because:
I know plenty of housing estates that are close to amenities, the centre of towns, but are low value areas because of the nature of the inhabitants. Similarly, very high value property is often not located near any amenities at all. In the UK you pay more to avoid certain types of people as neighbours than to get proximity to amenities...
A house in a 'nice' area of town will be worth considerably more than one in a 'rough' area, even though they are otherwise identical, and share identical services. So do you intent to tax that social value with LVT? Or just the pure locational value of a plot of land, x miles from the station, y miles from the motorway junction etc etc?
Summary: it's 'unfair' because people in the nicer areas would have the pay more than people in the cheaper areas, despite there being little difference in access to amenities.
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Ho hum, the arguments cancel out (a) low income people in nicer areas will complain because they have to pay as much in tax as their better off immediate neighbours; and (b) people in nicer areas will complain because they pay more than their distant neighbours in cheaper areas.
But let's not worry about the exceptions, let's remember the basic rule, which is (c) lower income people tend to live in cheaper areas and higher income people tend to live in nicer areas, so LVT is by and large a straight swap for the existing tax system (which is fairly flat relative to incomes or wealth).
The fun part is of course, that both arguments were put forward by Sobers.
1. Argument (a) is nonsense, because this is the whole point of LVT. If anything, the differences in disposable income would increase once income tax is scrapped. Argument (b) is nonsense because this is the whole point - you pays your money and you takes your choice. it's a tax on consumption without being a tax on production (like VAT).
2. These are all false comparisons anyway, the real choice is: would you be better off with income tax, National Insurance, VAT, corporation tax, Council Tax, Stamp Duty Land Tax etc etc, or would you be better off with just LVT (the corresponding boost to GDP growth is difficult for people to factor in)? Clearly, some will gain more than others, and a few people will lose out.
3. On the facts, there are very few postcode sectors (a circle about ten minutes walk from edge-to-edge) which are split into distinctly 'rough' and 'nice' areas. Even if there are, the houses in the 'rough' areas tend to have smaller gardens or are flats rather than houses, so the tax on a home in the 'rough' area will automatically be lower.
4. If all the houses are identical, but there are still 'nice' and 'rough' areas, then as a matter of practicality, the valuers have to apply commonsense, such as splitting it into two areas for valuation purposes, or reducing the assessed plot sizes in the 'rough' areas.
5. For example, there is a long residential road in my village which runs not-quite-parallel to the railway line, and there are semi-detached houses on the railway side (the other side is woods) so the back gardens at one end are 50 ft long and the gardens at the other end are 100 ft long, so the total plot sizes at one end are (say) fifty per cent bigger than the total plot sizes at the other, but they all sell for much the same price. So for valuation and assessment purposes, a sensible valuer would simply disregard the part of the back garden that extends more than 70 ft from the back of the house (or something).
6. Or maybe the owners of the long gardens could simply abandon the bit that they don't want to pay tax on. As it happens, at the fatter end of the triangle, there's a small car park for the station and some allotments, so if the owners of the long gardens gave those extra bits to the council (or London Transport or whomever) , we could extend the car park or turn them into allotments, which are both a far more intensive and hence efficient uses of land than simply having an incredibly long lawn.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
09:25
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Labels: KLN, Land Value Tax, Maths, Residential Land Values
Health Scare Story Du Jour
According to this, drinking milk is just about as dangerous as smoking.
Problem is, it's not the Daily Mail or somebody saying it, it's Leg-Iron. Would he write this to wind us up?
Ah well, I certainly can't survive without smoking, so I'll see if I can make do without milk, cheese etc. It's the cappuccinos I'll miss. And the cheese, obviously.
Friday, 10 December 2010
Friday night gear change
The rest of my family insists on watching a telly programme called The X-Factory. One of last Sunday's 'guest artists' performed an excruciatingly tuneless power ballad, which screams 'truck driver's gear change' from the very off.
Yup, two-and-a-half minutes in to Alexandra Burke's "The Silence' (if only!) is a textbook ponderous drum break and they then continue the rest of the song a semi-tone higher.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
18:30
4
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Labels: Gearchange, Music, Television
Killer Arguments Against LVT, not (82)
The OECD recently repeated their ground rules for taxation:
Taxes can be a disincentive to work, invest and innovate, with adverse effects on economic growth and welfare. But these distortions can be minimised:
• Change the overall tax structure to raise more revenue from taxes on consumption and residential property tax and less from personal and corporate income taxes;
• Broaden tax bases to enable rates to be kept as low as possible;
• [Let's politely ignore the bit about 'Green taxes']
• Ensuring that all citizens pay their fair share of taxes contributes to fiscal consolidation. OECD initiatives to counter offshore non-compliance are yielding billions of euros in extra tax revenues. [This point is superfluous if you stick to point one - you can't move land or 'consumption' offshore, as a caveat, VAT is not a tax on consumption, it is a tax on production]
This prompted the inevitable Home-Owner-Ist wailing in e.g. Estate Agent Today. I won't dignify that article by quoting from it, but, notwithstanding they complete overlook the bit about "less from personal and corporate income taxes", what these Vested Interests quoted in the article seem to be claiming is variously that:
1. LVT would push house prices down
2. LVT would make houses less affordable
3. Landlords would be discourage from renting out
4. Landlords would be able to increase the rents anyway (which is only true if income tax were reduced)
5. People would be 'forced' to sell
6. Nobody would be able to buy
7. Existing owners would be disadvantaged
8. Potential buyers would be disadvantaged relative to existing owners
9. There would be no new development.
None of these are correct (except maybe 1 and if that is true then 2, 6, and 8 cannot be true etc), and in any event, they all contradict each other. Even point 9 is not necessarily correct, and even if it were, our NIMBY nation sees that as A Good Thing.
IF all the things that they say were simultaneously true THEN the only logical conclusion it that we would end up with huge amounts of vacant homes (because existing owners can't afford to live there any more; potential buyers can't afford to buy; landlords don't want to let them out; and even if landlords want to let them out, potential tenants can't afford the rent etc).
Logic says that this would not be the outcome, and observed facts tell us that the reverse would happen
The UK already has Land Value Tax on commercial premises (or its close equivalent, Business Rates) and:
i. New office blocks are being built all the time,
ii The main thing stopping factories, power stations, airports, railways, roads etc being built is NIMBYism (which is totally anti-free market, so things are bound to go wrong),
iii. When Labour reduced the exemptions from Business Rates for vacant properties, occupation rates actually went up slightly. Remember The Golden Rule - if you tax something, you get less of it (unless it's in fixed supply, like land), so when they started taxing vacant buildings, we got fewer vacant buildings.
Cross posted at HPC
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
15:05
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Labels: Business Rates, Estate Agents, KLN, Land Value Tax, liars, NIMBYs, OECD, Propaganda
Saving The Planet with Gisele Bündchen
Apparently Gisele Bündchen is now going to Save The Planet, albeit in cartoon form. Jolly good, she can be this blog's new Sienna 'do as I say don't do as I do' Miller. Let's try Googling "Gisele Bündchen" + [name of a major world city] and see what comes up.
Ah right...
In Miami, 4 October 2010
In Paris, 30 September 2010.
In New York, 22 September 2010
Somewhere near Boston, 16 August 2010
Santa Monica, 23 June 2010
Sao Paolo, 13 June 2010
Los Angeles, 15 April 2010
Somewhere in Brazil, 22 March 2010
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
09:26
3
comments
Labels: Air travel, Gisele Bundchen, Hypocrisy, Sienna Miller
Emma Harrison, 'Family Champion'
It appears that the Lib-Cons are following Nulab tradition and appointing all sorts of meddlers and quangista to try and create The Master Race. This story was on Radio 4 this morning (brief write up here) but apart from that I can't find anything online.
Basically, Emma Harrison founder of fakeprivatecompany Action4Employment, now possibly known as A4E, yes, the ones who bought David Blunkett's seal of approval, has been given the job of being 'Family Champion' who is going to turn 'troubled families' into 'working families'. She claims to be doing it unpaid, but the plan is that she will have tens of thousands of people working for her.
Yup, that's right, people like Emma Harrison or Will Hutton just glide smoothly from being Labour luvvies to being Lib-Con luvvies. The whole thing makes me feel sick.
UPDATE: I refer my readers to the single issue 'blog Watching A4E for more A4E-related tomfoolery.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
07:40
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Labels: A4E, BBC, Corruption, David Cameron MP, Lobbyists, Quangocracy, Will Hutton
Thursday, 9 December 2010
How very dashed un-European of her!
From City AM
The pressure is telling on the region’s leaders, with Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker lashing out at German chancellor Angela Merkel for what he called her "un-European manner".
Regarding Merkel’s comments that issuing single, region-wide Eurozone bonds (or "E-bonds") would not be legal under current treaties, he retorted: “The proposal is being rejected before it has been studied. Germany’s thinking is a bit simple on that."
As it happens, Germans take their constitution (Grundgesetz, a very fine constitution it is too) very seriously. If it says that the German government isn't allowed to do certain things, then they don't do them. They apply the same logic to the EU Treaties, either something's allowed or it isn't.
Where it gets really complicated is when the Grundgesetz prevents the German government from doing something that is legal or even required under an EU Treaty, but apparently the simple fact that something is illegal under an EU Treaty is irrelevant, and refusing to do it is "un-European".
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
17:11
2
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Labels: Angela Merkel, Constitution, EU, Germany