Wednesday 14 September 2011

"We shall can easily overcome"

From Chapter 20 "Conclusions and Recommendations for Reform" of the Mirrlees Review:

Pure economic rents can, in principle, be taxed without creating an economic distortion. One example is the ‘excess’ return to capital; taxing such returns does not discourage saving and investment. In practice, it can be difficult to pinpoint rents, and so we are wary of attempting to tax them at higher rates than ordinary income.

But where rents can be identified accurately, targeted taxes can be applied. In particular, there is a strong case for levying a land value tax, which is a tax on pure rent—if the practical difficulty of valuing land separately from the buildings on it can be overcome.


Valuation is the easiest thing in the world, HM Land Registry has got 99% of the information it needs all held in a database to give relative values for every single patch of land to within +/- ten per cent at the touch of a button. There is no perfect 100% mathematically and scientifically correct answer, but the same applies to any tax (most existing taxes are dictated by politics/special interest groups rather than economic logic anyway).

So to some extent, LVT rates are trial and error (as are any tax rates), but it's easy to spot if the rate (in £-s-d) is too high in any area; land and buildings in that area - however new or well maintained - would sell for less than their rebuild cost (which is routinely established by insurance companies).

As long as land and buildings in any area are selling for noticeably more than their rebuild cost - and as long as owners of undeveloped and derelict sites choose to keep rather than abandon them - the LVT imposed in that area (in absolute £-s-d figures) is clearly less than 100% of the economic rent, so no harm done.
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Footnote to illustrate the point, for the benefit of The Fat Bigot and others:

We all know full well that UK housing can be sub-classified into a few generic types, the most important one being three-bed semi-detached houses We establish that In the UK semi-detached houses are the most common property type, accounting for 32% of UK housing transactions and 32% of the English housing stock as of 2008.

We all know what they look like, a bit like this:There are small variations (bay window, round, diagonal, none), built on garage (yes, no), nice bricks, pebble-dashed or pre-fab out of concrete, the smallest is maybe a fifth smaller than the biggest etc. but the basic layout is always the same, they were nearly all built between 1930 and 1970 and the plots tend to be 400 - 600 sq yards (call it 500 for the sake of this discussion) with a drive to one side, a smaller front garden and a larger back garden.

The rebuild costs are not wildly different around the country, and there some of them in nearly every postcode sector (there are certainly some in every postcode area, possibly even in every postcode district). So to check whether our land valuations are reasonably accurate, we can use them as a bellwether.

Reality Check #1

Let's assume the rebuild cost is decided to be £80,000 (subject to regional variations in local wages). We then choose a sample of such houses in each postcode sector and look at selling prices. If the selling prices in any area are less than £80,000, the location rent is a negative figure, and so LVT should be reduced, all the way down to a token amount of £1 per square yard if necessary (everybody has to pay something), let's refer to this as Area A, they take no further part in our calculations.

But there is a cut-off area where the LVT is a positive figure (call it £2 per square yard) and the selling price is still above £80,000, that forms our baseline, let's call this Area B. We know that the location rental value, and hence the LVT rate is going to be a larger, positive figure in all other areas (Areas C to Z).

Reality Check #2

If the rental value for the houses in Area B is £5,000 a year and the rent for the nicest one (adjusted for subtle differences in size or build quality) in the nicest area (Area Z) is £20,000, then clearly, the LVT/sq yard in Area Z 'should' be about £30 more/sq yard than in Area B.

So if the LVT rate is £2/sq yd in Area B, it 'should' be £32/sq yard in Area Z, with similar comparisons for every area in between, Areas C to Y.

And semi-detached houses are just one type of bellwether - we can also use:

a) the standard three-bed Victorian terraced house (sub-dividing into those with or without the L-extension at the back; those with or without a front garden, grading for size of back garden etc) and do the same exercise again;

a) concrete ex-council flats built in the 1960s and 1970s (graded by size, number of storeys in block, with or without dbl glazing, central heating, with or without lift), do the exercise again;

c) Barratts 'detached' houses built from the mid-1970s onwards, do it again.

I'd guess that those four broad categories cover about three-quarters of our housing stock, frankly, and if that is not enough evidence to support regional or local variations in the LVT rate in £/sq yard, I don't know what is.
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And I couldn't give a toss if the individual values are 'subjective', there is such a thing as an objective summary of subjective opinions.

If I were to say "The Rolling Stones are the best pop group ever" then that is my subjective and personal opinion and most people would disagree. I might even be wrong. But if i were to state that I think that they are the best, that is an objective statement.

And if we do an extensive survey and ten per cent of people say they think that The Rolling Stones are the best pop group ever, then it is an objective fact that ten per cent of people think [etc]. And if second most popular choice is ABBA on eight per cent, then that is also an objective fact. Whether The Rolling Stones really are the best pop group ever or ABBA the second best is entirely irrelevant.

85 comments:

Bayard said...

"From Chapter 20..."

Says it all really.

Ian B said...

Mark, we have been over this. A valuation is not a value. It's an estimate of what you might get if you sold it under current market conditions, which (a) you probably aren't going to and (b) those market conditions would change if you did try to sell it. This is why, relevant to another thread, you really need to understand why Smithian/Ricardian value objectivism will always lead you in the wrong direction and how important value theory is to understanding the market.

Have you ever seen those huge estimates of the current value of the housing stock? Vast sums. THe money isn't there. The properties only have those estimated values under current market conditions in which most of the stock isn't on the market. If you did try to extract all that value at once by selling it all at once, the values would collapse towards zero.

This is one of the systematic errors that led to the financial crisis. Everyone had these promises of value- contracts- that were treated as if they could all be realised as actual sale values, when only a fraction can be at any one time. The value is not intrinsic and it thus is not actually there.

That is why you cannot tax it. It doesn't exist.

Now, if you just want a guesstimate of possibly relative potential values, you can do that, but it's not the same as Georgist assumption that the value itself is real and can actually be taxed. Unlike, say, incomes, which are real and thus rationally taxable, because the money is actually changing hands in the system. Any valuation of land values is going to tell you there is orders of magnitude more value in the system than there actually is, and thus give you a wildly optimistic belief in what is actually available to be taken as taxation.

This really is fundemantal, Mark.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, and you know perfectly well that rental values are relatively stable and are real. People derive real benefit from having state-protected rights to exclusive occupation of land, and some bits are clearly worth more than others. Or else why are some houses worth far more than identical houses in another part of the country?

Even you cannot deny that the rental value of a flat overlooking St James Park, London is a hundred times as much as that of a council flat overlooking St James park, Newcastle.

This really is fundamental, IanB. it is not a 'Georgist assumption' it is a simple description of the real world which is easily measurable to within a tolerable margin of error, and if not in absolute terms, then certainly in relative terms.

Of course, the potential rental value of UK land is depressed by income tax (which appears to be your favourite tax), so if you use LVT receipts to cut income tax, VAT, then rental values rise automatically by the amount of the tax cut etc, so you hike LVT a bit and cut income tax a bit more in a virtuous circle.

Ian B said...

Mark, you still haven't got it. You're treating valuations as actual value. They are fundamentally different.

Anonymous said...

Tax the land + Building cost. Discount the insurance costs for rebuilding.

AC1

Mark Wadsworth said...

No IanB, it is you who is blind to reality:

1. Anywhere where LVT has been tried, it has always worked just fine (Japan, HK, Taiwan, Australia, USA, Denmark, the UK for the bulk of its history).

2. Until the 1960s we had Domestic Rates and Schedule A taxation, which between them amounted to a crude form of LVT. A lot of new houses were built, owner-occupation levels increased, prices were low and stable, no credit bubbles. Facts.

3. We still have Business Rates on commercial premises (about 30% of gross rental value), which is tolerably close to LVT. Buildings still get built and rented out, they still get bought and sold, and the price bubble in commercial buildings was nowhere near as big as in residential. Apparently, selling prices of commercial buildings lag inflation. Facts.

4. Yes, people's personal preferences are different, but so what? That does not stop there being a 'market value'. I have no interest in buying a Mozart CD, its value to me is precisely £nil, but that does not mean that I can go into a shop and demand one for free, because the market value is £10 as decided by suppliers and customers.

5. If you think the tax on your patch is too high, well then sell up and move elsewhere. As long as you can sell it for more than its rebuild cost, clearly, there are people prepared to pay the tax, so the tax is still below the market rental value.

6. If your logic is correct, then nobody would ever pay rent. I pay the rent every month because I and my family derive an equal and opposite benefit. If there comes a time when we decide that the rent exceeds the benefit to us personally (i.e. because our kids finish at the local schools) then we will up sticks and go elsewhere.

7. LVT is just like the council charging land owners rent. If they don't like it, they can up sticks and move elsewhere. Provided there are enough people willing to live in that area and pay up then the tax is not excessive.

I've explained this, using real life facts and figures and logic a dozen times and you know all this perfectly well. You just keep claiming the same tired old thing that "land rental values do not exist" which is clearly hokum.

And as somebody else said about income tax, just because something CAN be taxed does not mean that it SHOULD be taxed.

Mark Wadsworth said...

AC1 agreed, that is exactly the way forward.

But people like IanB...

1. Deny flatly that land rental values exist.

2. Claim that even if they do exist, they are impossible to establish with any degree of accuracy.

3. Claim that even if they do exist and can be established to wthin a tolerable margin of error 9remembering it is only relative values that matter, not absolute ones), that they are a suitable subject for taxation.

Ian B said...

Mark, I am not claiming that "land rental values do not exist". I'm trying to explain to you in simple enough terms that valuations are not values.

Look, go back to the recent financial crash. That can be understood as financial instutitions relying on valuations-as-values, and when too many of them tried to turn the valuations into values, the system collapsed because the actual value was not there.

Part of the problem is that you are being vague, as is quite a common Georgist problem; one minute the LVT recaptures value-from-the-community, the next it is just a valuation-proportionate tax. These are different things.

Look, you have quite a skill as an artist. I can make an estimate- a valuation- of what your drawings might be worth if you sold them. That would be a valid thing to do. I could say, "in the right market, that drawing would be worth £200". But that is fundamentally different to its actual current value, which is undetermined because you haven't actually sold it.

The error is this; society is full of people with artistic skill, who aren't in the market at the moment. If I assess every one of them in that way, I would get a far higher total valuation for my "Art Value Tax" than actually exists, because if they were all on the market supply would have changed enormously and all their potential values would collapse towards zero.

The point I am trying to get you to see here is that the Georgist justification for the LVT is simply not valid arithmetic. Whether or not general property taxes are a good idea is another question, and as I have said several times, I'm not actually arguing against them per se. But the fact is that your arithmetical caluclations of externalities do not give the correct answer.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB: "I am not claiming that "land rental values do not exist".

Good.

"I'm trying to explain to you in simple enough terms that valuations are not values."

No of course they are not, whoever said they were? Valuations are an esimate of values, derived from thousands of recent market transactions in a homogenous commodity.

And as a matter of fact, the recent credit bubble/house price bubble was largely caused by the absence of LVT (see my point 2 of earlier).

"Part of the problem is that you are being vague, as is quite a common Georgist problem; one minute the LVT recaptures value-from-the-community, the next it is just a valuation-proportionate tax. These are different things."

I would have thought I'm being perfectly clear. I maintain, on the basis of a whole wealth of evidence, that it would be a good idea to reduce or scrap VAT, income tax etc, and collect taxes on the rental value of land. I have also sketched out how the system would work in practice.

There are infinite ways of explaining or justifying LVT (whether as an alternative to income tax or in its own right), whether it is moral arguments, economic arguments, philosophical arguments.

It is all to some extent value judgments that things like full employment; efficient use of land and housing; dampening credit/price bubbles; and having the widest possible spread of owner-occupation are Very Good Things Indeed. Perhaps you think they aren't.

"Whether or not general property taxes are a good idea is another question, and as I have said several times, I'm not actually arguing against them per se."

Well I'm very glad to hear that as well. So let's not argue and bicker on a philosophical level, let's look at the practicalities of introducing them; how to overcome political difficulties; which other taxes we replace first and think about the impact on e.g. employment levels, owner-occupation levels and so on.

By the way, I'm not in the slightest interested in what you think Georgism says, it is of no concern to me what he actually said either, it just so happens that he is one of thousands of people who came to the same conclusion as I did, I had worked all this out for myself before I'd even heard of him.

Deniro said...

Mark, You said on another thread that you have no interest in Marx. If you had seen "Capital" a short paper back or the "comunist maifesto" an even shorter one you would see that you are refering to the flawed ideas that are there, such as the labour theory of value.

For example you say - tax the cost of land + building costs.
The building costs are not the value so not the base of the LVT . You have said before that the market value of something >is not< costs plus profit margin. So you are familliar with that.

That premise is that if builders become massively inefficient then the LVT goes up. Thats not an economically rational idea.
As for Hong Kong the entry on wikipedia (not always correct) says that is a not Value Tax rather it is a Rental income tax.

Bayard said...

"I'm trying to explain to you in simple enough terms that valuations are not values."

In what way is this relevant to a discussion about a tax base, apart from the semantic connection that the V in LVT stands for "value"? All you need for a tax base is a set of figures that bear some relation to each other, not to anything else. Your income is one point in one of those sets of figures, the valuation of your house can be another. It doesn't have to bear any relation to the actual value of your house, as is amply borne out by the Council tax, which is based on a set of valuations carried out 20 years ago ffs. It still works, because if you could sell your house in Market Drayton and buy a one-bed flat in Kensington in 1991 for the same money, you probably still can now. It's relative values that matter for property taxes, not absolute values, which, as you rightly point out, are impossible to determine.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Den, clearly, proper LVT is based on annual site-only rental value, but this is such an unfamiliar concept to most people that I use total value as a proxy.

If I say "The tax will be about 8% per annum of current selling prices and will replace nearly all other taxes", then people can agree or disagree with the basic proposal.

If I say "The tax will be approx. 75% of the annual site-only rental value, which itself will double or treble once income tax, VAT are abolished" then that is just gibberish as far as the man in the street is concerned, how the Hell is he supposed to agree or disagree if there is no indication of how much the tax would be?

Ian B said...

Mark and Bayard, If you just want a property valuation proportionate tax, stop calling it an LVT and stop using Georgist arguments; but then you have to be honest and drop the Georgist arguments in their entirety, such as the separation between "land value" and "improvement value" and so on.

It is the difference between an orthodox marxist argument for abolishing the bourgeois class, and a general "rich folks should pay more taxes because they have more stuff" argument. They are different, and you need to decide which argument you are using.

And whichever you use, you still need to understand the fundamental economic truth that valuations and values are different things, because as I said above, the apparent pot of taxable money from summing valuations will always be very much greater than the actual pot of money available. As I've said several times, the banking system collapsed entirely because the banksters believed that all the valuations they were holding were realisable as value. Which they were most definitely not.

Ian B said...

THe other problem you have, inherited directly from the Georgist position, is the standard Ricardo/Marx error of seeing the economy as linear rather than the circular; value starts in one place and moves to another place and falls into the bank accounts (particular hated class; capitalists or rentiers) and stays there. This linear model causes you to see "externalities" accruing endlessly to land plots and ignores the reciprocity of the situation; plot A supplies value to plot B, but plot B is supplying value to plot A.

As an example; Mr Patel's shop benefits from me living close by, but I benefit from Mr Patel's shop. There is a reciprocal benefit. (And each of us is actually benefitting more than we subjectively consider the other to benefit, as in all trades). There is no "externality".

There is only a perceived externality if a third party- the rentier- is charging us rent, in which case he's benefitting from both of our presences; and if you ideologically believe that rent is unjust, you can then cliam a right to tax his rent. Okay.

But this entirely breaks down when there is no rentier. There is no externality. All the increased values are reciprocal, as with myself and Patel. So, then your ideological justification for a property tax is lost. Patel and I are already compensating each other via the free market (selling and buying alcopops and frozen pizzas).

So ideologically, you can only justify a rental tax. Tax every rentier. But you have to leave the owner occupiers alone. And if you're going to claim the whole rent as tax anyway, thus making rental uneconomic, you may as well just make land rental illegal, forcing anyone wiht land they can't use to either leave it fallow or sell it. Which is, after all, the outcome desired by George anyway.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, we can call it "Council Tax", "Domestic Rates", "Schedule A tax on notional rental income", "Land Value Tax", "Location Benefit Levy" or "Business Rates" or anything you like, I'm not fussed.

As to "Georgist arguments", I spend most of my time explaining why existing taxes are bad and rebutting arguments against LVT. I spend very little time explaining the merits as these are quite obvious.

"... the banking system collapsed entirely because the banksters believed that all the valuations they were holding were realisable as value"

Well, the banking system didn't collapse, did it? I've no idea where you get that from - the bankers pretended that it was near collapse in order to bank all the lovely bail out money from the government, is all.

And the banking system is currently in rude financial health (putting the Greek nastiness to one side), precisely because they are collecting about half of all UK land rental values via mortgage interest.

Where things are a bit wobbly is the people in nequity, but this is because the banks lent money (knowingly and malicioulsy) on the basis of over-inflated capital selling values, rather than on borrowers' incomes.

Clearly that was all complete bollocks, but that is yet another argument for LVT, it is based on fairly stable land rental values (currently collected to a large part by banks) and not capital values (which are whatever banks and government want them to be); and by and large LVT would keep selling prices low and stable, so less f-ing about and thieving by the banks.

PS, I repeat, I am not interested in what George or Marx said, and certainly not in what you think they said.

Mark Wadsworth said...

I have responded to your last comment a dozen times, I can't be bothered yet agin, it is the usual Home-Owner-Ist nonsense ("Oh please go and tax Somebody Else") mixed in with personal insults:

"... if you're going to claim the whole rent as tax anyway (1), thus making rental uneconomic (2), you may as well just make land rental illegal (3), forcing anyone wiht land they can't use to either leave it fallow or sell it. Which is, after all, the outcome desired by George anyway.(4)"

1) I never said 'the whole rent', I said 'about 75% of the site-rental value, which in turn is about half the overall rental value.

2) Why would LVT make renting uneconomic? Facts? Logic? Examples? What about somebody with a interest-only mortgage which happens to be = the underlying land value? Where is the difference between that and LVT, except that the mortgage is non-repayable and attached to the land, not the borrower?

3) Why would I do that? That's insane! Where have I ever gone in for landlord-bashing? That's you doing that, not me.

4) In future, I'm going to have to delete any of your comments in which you entertain us with your idiosyncratic personal opinion of what Henry George said or meant. It really is tedious, irrelevant, annoying.

Ian B said...

That's pretty sad Mark; you can't answer the criticism so you're going to delete it? Okay, but as admissions of failure go, that is pretty blatant.

Also you know darned well that I am not "Home-Owner-Ist" and entirely support your arguments against that lobby. I am just trying to get you to understand the actual economics of the situation, because if you could get to grips with that you would understand that a free market in land would work fine, the same as all other markets, if we can just get a free market in land, which we don't currently have.

Also, there is not a single "personal insult" in any of what I wrote above.

James Higham said...

Hell I feel ignorant. I grasped that value is not valuation and that there is a Georgist position, whatever that means. I've got the idea of Homeownerist being bad but then it all gets a bit vague.

As long as land and buildings in any area are selling for noticeably more than their rebuild cost - and as long as owners of undeveloped and derelict sites choose to keep rather than abandon them - the LVT imposed in that area (in absolute £-s-d figures) is clearly less than 100% of the economic rent, so no harm done.

Er ... why? How so?

Ian B said...

Er ... why? How so?

As I've implied above, Georgism and Marxism are the same type of philosophy. Both are based on the Ricardian idea that income divides neatly into three types- wages, profits and rents, and that those who receive those divide neatly into three classes- proleteriat, capitalists and rentiers. Marxists treat the "profit" and "capitalist" as dead weight on the economy, so you can arbitrarily exprorpiate or abolish them and do nothing but good, since they are doing nothing useful anyway.

Georgism is the equivalent with rentiers instead of capitalists, so again it just presumes that you can arbitrarily expropriate/abolish the rentier without any negative economic effects.

Snarfangel said...

I haven't read the entire thread yet, but I did want to comment on one example given by Ian B:

Look, you have quite a skill as an artist. I can make an estimate- a valuation- of what your drawings might be worth if you sold them. That would be a valid thing to do. I could say, "in the right market, that drawing would be worth £200". But that is fundamentally different to its actual current value, which is undetermined because you haven't actually sold it.

The error is this; society is full of people with artistic skill, who aren't in the market at the moment. If I assess every one of them in that way, I would get a far higher total valuation for my "Art Value Tax" than actually exists, because if they were all on the market supply would have changed enormously and all their potential values would collapse towards zero.


The difference between an art value tax and a land value tax is that you can always create more art. Try recasting your example as an "Old Masters Tax."

(It's just after 6 am Oregon time, and I haven't had my coffee yet. I'm afraid I'll forget something if I attempt it.)

Snarfangel said...

So ideologically, you can only justify a rental tax. Tax every rentier. But you have to leave the owner occupiers alone. And if you're going to claim the whole rent as tax anyway, thus making rental uneconomic, you may as well just make land rental illegal, forcing anyone wiht land they can't use to either leave it fallow or sell it. Which is, after all, the outcome desired by George anyway.

Are you forgetting imputed rent? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imputed_rent

(Off to work for me.)

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, I don't delete comments, I don't mind being criticised, that's fine, but I see little point in debating what YOU think that Marx, Smith, Ricardo or George said.

I'm not interested, nobody reading it is remotely interested, it's pointless and boring. I'm not even particularly interested in what they ACTUALLY said, let alone what you think they said.

It's much more fun looking at actual FACTS and EXAMPLES and REAL LIFE. Your Mr Patel example is a good one, superficially you have a point, but you have used this example before, and I have explained why it is fallacious.

Quite simply: does Mr Patel derive a benefit from OWNING that land, does he end up better off than his twin brother (also, rather amusingly, called Mr Patel), who works just as hard but is a tenant (in the next town)?

Answer: yes.
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JH, it's quite simple.

It is bad to tax earned income or profits. That makes the payer poorer and it makes us all poorer. It is at worst neutral and probably good to tax rents, especially if the proceeds are spent wisely (ha!).

Clearly, part of the rental income which a landlord gets is 'earned', because he has to do credit checks, repair the roof, and somebody has to build the house in the first place (even if the landlord pays others to do this stuff, it is still earned).

And part is unearned.Imagine two landlords who own identical houses, one in a poor area and one in a rich area.

They do exactly the same amount of actual work, but one collects far more rent than the other quite simply because his house is in a rich area. That difference is "site only rental value". It is unearned income, as far as the landlord is concerned.

LVT is a tax on the unearned bit only, not on the rental value of the bricks and mortar. So the acid test of whether the tax is "too high" is whether the finished building would sell for more than its recuild cost/value. If not, it's too high.

Don't worry about Georgism, the only person who talks about him is IanB, don't worry about Home-Owner-Ism, I invented that phrase as a catch-all insult.
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Snarf, I have no talent as an artist*, so IanB's whole argument based on this premise fails for factual error.

And I have no idea what kind of point he is trying to make or what the relevance is to LVT, so I just ignored that bit.

I don't even know if he's talking about capital values (which fluctuate wildly) or rental values, I just don't know.

* But I'm good at choosing which photo's to base a drawing on and dab hand when it comes to scanning the finished picture to get it to look right :-)
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Snarf, again.

IanB's Mr Patel example is used to justify his view that owner-occupiers generate as much value for others as they receive THEREFORE, even if imputed rents existed and their value could be established, then it would be 'unfair' to tax them.

Ian B said...

Are you forgetting imputed rent?

Unless I'm missing something, and I've read that page several times, the idea appears to be total rubbish. It presumes that ownership should be compared against a hypothetical rental cost. It seems to be the same fallacy I've been already discussing, of comparing reality to an imaginary.

Again, it seems obvious that anyone foolish enough to sum up all the "imputed rents" in society would come up with a figure many times the money supply. I would be found to be earning "imputed rents" from my computer, desk, cat, furniture, kitchen appliances...

It would certainly cost me a great deal to rent all those things. Far more than I could afford, in fact. I don't see the use of this metric.

And this is surely the whole problem with belief in intrinsic values.

Ian B said...

They do exactly the same amount of actual work, but one collects far more rent than the other quite simply because his house is in a rich area. That difference is "site only rental value". It is unearned income, as far as the landlord is concerned.

Ahhhh, here we go again, the Labour Theory Of Value. Sigh. All aboard for 1850!

You can't do that Mark. I keep telling you. Value just does not work that way.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, I'm not interested in your opinion on what other people may or may not have said about value theories. I know all about value theories. Nobody else is interested.

Do you accept that physically identical houses in different parts of the country cost hugely different amounts to rent or buy, depending on where they are?

I would be interested to know how you explain these differences, and whether you would agree that the difference can be referred to as "site-only rental value" or "unearned income".

Real world stuff, not your endless tedious rehash of some vague half misunderstood and theories of no relevance to anything.
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Again, in THE REAL WORLD, the total imputed rental income of UK land (excl. buildings) can be calculated, including direct taxes thereon it is about £150billion*, and is included in GDP figures (it's about ten per cent of GDP). The rental value of the buildings is another £100 billion or so on top.

These are not massive, made up figures (although they are estimates, 20% margine of error either way).

They are REAL LIFE figures, so it's all well and good saying 'you can't tax LVT because potential imputed rents are so unfeasibly large that they can't possibly exist' when clearly they are not particularly large and they DO exist.

* Split three ways: council tax + business rates, about £50 billion, the rest is split partly between banks' interest income and imputed rents (and a tiny bit is collected by actual lanlords).

Ian B said...

I would be interested to know how you explain these differences,

Individuals subjectively value the properties at that level, at this point in time. There is no deeper explanation. Until you actually understand value theory and stop dismissing it Mark, you are not going to get anywhere with understanding economics. It is that simple.

and whether you would agree that the difference can be referred to as "site-only rental value" or "unearned income".

You can call it whatever you like Mark, but I'd like to see your definition of "earned income".


Again, in THE REAL WORLD, the total imputed rental income of UK land (excl. buildings) can be calculated,

Remember my Whore Value Tax, Mark? Given a few assistants and a few weeks I could calculate that "imputed income" too. And it would be equally meaningless. Do you understand why?

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, call it subjective, if you will, but people's subjective values are suprisingly consistent, follow normal economic laws and so on, and in practice, some areas are much nicer than others, so they can be understood and explained.

(I could just as well argue that the value people place on a Mozart CD is subjective, and only those who personally feel it is worth more than £10 which is what the shop is selling it for. That is neither an argument for nor against taxing the vendors of CDs).

And LVT really were a tax on entirely subjective values, then even better. That makes it entirely voluntary, doesn't it? You just pay what you feel like paying!

Earned income is earned income. If Mr Patel, owner-occupier of a shop in the centre of prosperous Town A and Mr Patel, tenant of (or indeed owner-occupier of) a similar shop at the edge of struggling Town B spend the same number of hours a week behind the till, stock the same products etc, then Mr Patel and Mr Patel are clearly doing the same amount of work.

The second Mr Patel's income is clearly largely earned, the extra income that the first Mr Patel gets is unearned.

We've done your stupid WVT to death. Boring. As has been pointed out to you before, just because something can be measured or calculated, however accurately, does mean it should be taxed.

And conversely, just because land rental values have to be interpolated on the basis of thousands of actual market transactions does not mean they cannot be taxed.

I refer you again to the real life example of Business Rates. It 'works'. It gets money it with little or no damage to the economy.

Mark Wadsworth said...

PS, I understand 'value theory' perfectly well, and rather better than you, it would appear. Every voluntary transaction is based on two people ascribing a value to something and only making the exchange if they think the benefits to them outweigh the costs.

So all values are based on the outcome of thousands or millions of personal decisions, that does not mean that we can say what the current market value of a barrel of oil, a hair cut, a second hand car or a plot of land is. Because that's what market value is. It is what it is, there is no need to define it any further. And land rents have a market value, why wouldn't they?

As I've said before, can you stop waffling on with your personal views of what OTHER people think and try looking at REAL LIFE.

Ian B said...

You still haven't got it, Mark. It's rather dispiriting, frankly.

Deniro said...

Mark , I appreciate you only want facts and not political musings, but in an LVT economy the facts you refer to would not exist, and so can't be used. Houses would be valued by people differently, rental values-who knows, and the amount builders can charge again different in an LVT economy.
You say you understand value theory (exchange - the correct one), but when when discussing LVT you use incorrect ones such as the cost of rebuild etc.(no-one can say what a just price for a rebuld is)
LVT taxes a man based on what someone down the road charged in rent a week or a year ago. Its totally arbitary. You say the all the prices are available in some table somewhere but they are the result of market forces and peoples values in the Economy as it is now.

Maybe a sensible tax is one on all transactions that use money. If it applied to every transaction it would not have dead weight costs as there would be no alternative. Also it makes sense as the monatary system requires some taxation itself as some money constantly needs to return to the BOE via the treasury otherwise there would be constant currency inflation.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, no, YOU haven't got it.

I've patiently explained why LVT is the least bad tax, and provided enough real life examples to show that actually it's a good tax; I've said how it could be implemented, sketched out how it could replace ALL other taxes; and been through all the possible consequences thereof (most of them beneficial to most people - I admit large landowners and bankers will lose out); I've batted off dozens of stupid Killer Arguments Against.

(I'm not particularly interested in philosophical underpinnings, it's a question of outcomes. It's like legalising drugs, you want it because you see anti-drug laws as illiberal, regardless of the consequences. I want it because it is quite clear that anti-drug laws make things worse for everybody on every level. Motive is secondary, outcome it important.)

The fact that you think you are a mind reader and claim to know what other people think far better than they do themselves, is of no concern to me. You keep telling me about what you think OTHER people think, including telling me what you think that I think and I'm just not interested. I know what I think and can express myself reasonably clearly (I hope).

If you're bored arguing with me, why not send an email to those nice chaps at the IFS, or at the OECD (or any other think tank in favour of it) and tell that LVT is a load of shit and bore them silly by accusing them of misunderstanding the Labour Theory of Value?

And why not accuse them of being Ricardian-Georgist-Smithian-Friedmanite-Churchillian-Closet Marxists or something? Do you think they'll take your seriously as a scholar of economic issues? Do you think that such economists would even bother responding to your Whore Value Tax?

Mark Wadsworth said...

Den, what on earth are you talking about?

"when when discussing LVT you use incorrect ones such as the cost of rebuild etc.(no-one can say what a just price for a rebuld is)"

Look, there is a market price for building a house, there is a reasonable amount of competition, you can get quotes from a dozen builders and you choose the lowest one whose got an OK reputation. That is the market value, end of discussion.

"LVT taxes a man based on what someone down the road charged in rent a week or a year ago. Its totally arbitary."

No it is not arbitrary. Rents in nice areas are higher than in shit areas; rents for big places are higher than for small places. The average market rents (partly based on selling prices) of all homes in an area is a VERY good guide of rental values. And actual rental values are a VERY good guide to imputed rents.

Some people in that area won't want to pay that much, well fine, they can f- off and other people who DO like the area can move in, everybody's happy.

"prices... are the result of market forces and peoples values in the Economy as it is now."

? Wot? That has to be the most bizarre anti-LVT argument ever: "market values are based on market forces and thus no guide to market values"? Jesus wept.

Whatever the system of tax, there will be market forces and there will be rental values; there will always be nice areas and shit areas; there will always be big houses and small houses.

And you resolutely fail to address that LVT simply WORKS! Please refer to my comment above re Domestic Rates/Schedule A tax (crude, but similar to LVT) or even Business Rates - how come Business Rates raises so much money with no damage (and possibly benefits to) the economy?

Transaction tax = shit tax = worst tax of all. It'd be like VAT on steroids, FFS.

Anonymous said...

This entire argument is very neatly sidestepped by simply going ahead and levying LVT. By definition, anyone paying the charge values the plot at least that amount (and money even changes hands, Ian!! :) ). Using market data and estimating rebuild costs are helpful, but ultimately unnecessary, as LVT can at the very least be administered blunt-iteratively. This is the irony of claiming that LVT can't work because the values don't exist. The act of taxing land values ends up proving that they do!

Lazy Fraggle

Ian B said...

Mark, a utilitarian approach is fair enough. Most of us are utiltiarians to some degree deep down (that is, we justify our principles by utilitarian arguments). But being a pure utilitarian, you still have the same problems, as Deniro explained, again, above.

Because your economic theory is wrong, your economic predictions are wrong; or at least, unreliable. You cannot take values from the economy-as-it-is-now and apply them to the economy-as-it-would-be because they will all change.

Even more seriously, you cannot treat a hypothetical "imputed" value as an actual value. Something which is not in the economy now (an unrented property) cannot be treated as if it were. That is what I tried to explain before; you'll end up with everything summing far above unity, because you can't apply imputed values simultaneously. A man who starts being a landlord will have to stop some other economic activity in order to do so; it's called Opportunity Cost. A property that comes on the rental (or sale) market will affect all the other values in the matrix. You can't simply add these imputed values in on top. It's an arithmetical nonsense. You'll find you can impute values to just about anything- as with Erotic Capital (the polite term for Whore Value)- and end up with ever increasing absurd figures for economic value that do not represent anything real because those myriad imputed economic transactions are not actually taking place. You may as well tot up the speculative erotic value of every woman in Britain and pile that in on top of GDP and find another miraculous pot of gold, and the reason I am using this deliberately silly example is that it ought to demonstrate how absurd such a thing is. It is the same way that leftist activists "prove" that a hamburger costs $200, and the like; by imputing and estimating values in the same arbitrary way; "If you had to pay for that, we estimate it would cost you that much, so therefore it is actually costing that much".

The thing you need to "get" is the significance of value theory. It's not some boring side issue. It's fundamental. You're like somebody coming out with blog after blog about particle physics that ignores quantum mechanics, and saying to commentators, "oh, stop going on about that quantum thing, it's boring".

If you can't integrate the facts that I and Deniro and various others are explaining to you, your predictions and speculations will remain entirely meaingless, because they are based on entirely wrong assumptions about economics. I'm sorry to be that blunt. But it's just a fact.

Anonymous said...

@IanB - may I invite you to compare the situation nof the property market (e.g. UK commercial), Taiwan Property taxes etc before and after introduction to illustrate your point about the differences of value-before and value-after. I do think you are right that the value would be different, but I don't think it is not significant enough to make it unworkable (as long as we don't seek to capture a high % of the LVT - say 40% max)). There will be behavioural changes, as with all taxes, but the changes will not be enough to make it unworkable.

@MarkW - more or less agree with your proposition but not convinced with your LVT then no property bubble (unless LVT is set to 100%, then we get a land capital value of 0 and other problems). Pretty big property bubbles in all the countries you listed (HK, TW etc, US has have a big burst, of course).

EBM

Mark Wadsworth said...

Frag's, succinctly put, as ever :-)
--------------------
IanB, we both now that LVT works in PRACTICE and you're bickering about whether it works in THEORY??? It must do, or else it wouldn't work in practice, end of discussion.

The outcome meets the predictions as predicted by e.g. me. In real life. Every time it is tried, and the reverse happens every time it is phased out and incomes taxed instead. In real life, in every different country throughout history. In real life. It is not speculation, it is easily observable. In real life. So just shut up with your whining and philosophicals and theoreticals for which there is NO FACTUAL BASIS!!!

Anyway, who cares for philospohical ramblings? Of all my LVT chums, some are small govt liberals, some are Greenies, some Christians and some Ukippers (only one or two Tories I can think of). We all rationalise it in different ways, so what?

To use your analogy, NOBODY knows what gravity really is or what powers it, not even the cleverest scientist, but we all know what effects it has, and that is quite sufficient.
------------------
EBM, it is almost certainly the case that rental values will increase if income tax is reduced (again, observed in real life) which would in isolation push up selling prices; it is also the case that LVT in isolation depresses selling prices (observed in real life), so it's difficult to say what happens to selling prices if we shift from taxing incomes to taxing land rental values, but frankly, there's only one way to find out.

Observed in real life: the UK commercial price bubble (depressed by B Rates) was nowhere near as big as the one in residential (very light taxation).

Observed in real life: in most of the US, land taxes are relatively low, so have no particular dampening effect.

Observed in real life: HK doesn't have purist LVT, it sells of 30-year leaseholds, which act in a similar fashion to unencumbered freeholds, so you still get bubbles.

Observed in real life: Japan DID used to have LVT (thanks to Georgist General Doug Macarthur) and it did stupendously well economically, when the banks got it phased out in the 1970s and 1980s, there was the land price bubble from Hell.

Derek said...

IanB will no doubt be pleased to hear that Land Value Tax was also strongly recommended by Leon Walras, one of the founders of the subjective value theory. In fact it was the only tax that he supported.

So it's not just the Ricardians who support land taxation. There are Austrians who do too. You just need to look for them a bit harder.

Deniro said...

On second thoughts with a tarriff that large on using money, people would avoid using money.





LVT would be a huge subsidy to Renters who allready have their own advantages.

With LVT and a stable house price people would rent and not buy as 8% is more than the rent.

People with mortgages would be paying mortgage interest plus the 8%. Thats Definately more than renting.

Where the rent is higher than 8% current homeowners would sell up and put their monyey in the stock exchange or on deposit. The investment returns plus the 8% saving would pay the rent and some.

No more owner occupiers.
If thats is what you intend then thats is what you would be getting.

TheFatBigot said...

This is all jolly interesting but it is not an answer to the problem identified by the IFS, namely how you value land separately from the buildings on that land.

It is no answer to simply deduct notional re-build costs from actual sale prices of land + building because that assumes the part of the price paid for the building was only re-build cost. That is patently false.

Two houses can have identical build costs on adjacent plots of equal size yet one can be substantially more attractive to potential purchasers than the other - leading to one selling for more than the other. How do you work out what was paid for the land and what was paid in each case for the building? It cannot be re-build cost or both would have sold for the same price.

Similarly, adjacent plots of equal size can be filled with a single small house and a block of flats. Selling prices of the flats in total would (normally) be far higher than the selling price of the single house plus the additional rebuild cost of the flats.

If you relly want LVT rather than a land+building tax you have to find a better solution to the problem identified by the IFS than the one you have put forward so far.

Sobers said...

In a purely utilitarian way (the discussions about Labour theory of Value, Ricardo, George and Marx are above my pay grade) I think Deniro has touched on one of my thoughts regarding LVT - until its implemented you have no way of knowing how much revenue it would raise, what would happen to house prices at the top and bottom, how rents would move etc. And thus you can't in any way predict who is going to be negatively and positively impacted by it.

Its not helped by MW describing LVT variously as '8% of selling price tax' and also 'site only rental value tax'. The two would have different effects, at least initially, not least that if you describe LVT as the former, but calculate it as the latter, people would get rather p*ssed off when their £100K house ended up with £10K LVT not £8K.

If you implement an '8% of selling value tax' the end result (after a lot of social upheaval) would be house prices that exactly mirrored the income distribution of the country, pretty much as rents do now. So you might as well implement a 'Site only rental value tax' in the first place and save some of the upheaval. But selling the latter to general public isn't easy as its hard to tell people with a £100K house they're going to pay more than half the tax of a house worth double theirs. It would be perceived as 'unfair', even if both house owners are better off under the new system than the old.

House prices comprise two sections - the value that derives from the level of income in society, and the amount that is represented by capital. If one compares a small flat in an urban area, the vast majority, if not 100%, of its value is determined by the general level of wages in that locality. Its price will be such that there are similar numbers of people who can afford to borrow its purchase price as there are numbers of similar flats.

Compare that to a country mansion. Its price is largely determined by the availability of people with capital to invest in such a house, rather than the number of people who earn enough to borrow the entire sum.

The rental value roughly equates to a fixed % of the proportion of the selling price that derives from income. This is why the rental yield on a small flat is larger than that on a country mansion.

Ergo if you tax rental values, the capital value goes untaxed. The £10m country mansion will not pay 100 times the LVT of a £100K flat. It would probably pay less than 50 times that amount.

In a country brought up on 'progressive' taxation (ie the wealthy paying a larger than 'fair' share) this would be considered manifestly 'unfair', and thus would not be supported.

It is obvious from recent interest in LVT from the Left that they consider LVT as a way of bashing 'the rich', with no suggestion of reducing any other taxes (apart from SDLT possibly) at the same time. It is a thin end of a very large wedge - tax mansions first, and slowly move down the price scale, as demands for extra tax revenue continue to rise. Pretty much in the way the average man would never have paid income tax 100 years ago.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Derek, nice one. And Milton Friedman was probably a closet Communist or something because he also said LVT was least bad, not only that, he was in favour of legalising drugs, Citizen's Income and all sorts of similarly subversive measures.

Den: "On second thoughts with a tarriff that large on using money, people would avoid using money."

The penny drops!

"People with mortgages would be paying mortgage interest plus the 8%. That's definitely more than renting."

Mortgage interest is a result of the previous high price system, the transition will be icky, not my fault.

The 8% is simply current tax take (Income tax, NIC etc) divided by current value of homes. So for every extra £1 in LVT, you are saving £1 in income tax, it's a wash. By and large people will still be better off.

Secondly, 8% of current values is more than the current average rental yield (call it 5%), that's for sure. But once we have proper CI and no income tax, people's disposable incomes will more than double; without VAT, prices of stuff will fall, so the balancing figure which people have to spend on rents will nearly treble.

So something worth £100,000 that rents for £6,000 a year today will command £15,000 gross rent. A third of that is bricks and mortar rent (let's say) and the land rent is 10% (by subtraction). The 8% of current values (£8,000) is 80% of the site rental value.
-----------------------
TFB, did you actually read my post? I refer you also to Lazy Fraggles' comment above.

You're completely contradicting yourself as usual:

"It is no answer to simply deduct notional re-build costs from actual sale prices of land + building because that assumes the part of the price paid for the building was only re-build cost. That is patently false."

Why is it patently false? The total price (or total rent) is for bricks+mortar and location value/size of garden. It is two things which add up to a known total figure. Each can be looked at independently. Valuers and property developers do it all the time.

"If you really want LVT rather than a land + building tax you have to find a better solution to the problem identified by the IFS than the one you have put forward so far."

How the heck is it a land + buildings tax if we deduct and ignore the cost/value of the building?

I've added a footnote to the post re semi-detached houses.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Sobers, on the finer points you are correct, as you know as much if not a lot more about valuing houses and building plots than I do, because this is what you do for a living :-)

"Until it's implemented you have no way of knowing how much revenue it would raise, what would happen to house prices at the top and bottom, how rents would move etc. And thus you can't in any way predict who is going to be negatively and positively impacted by it."

Correct.

Which is why we do it gradually, in Year One we raise £42.5 billion to replace Council Tax, SDLT, IHT etc (that's approx. one per cent of current selling prices, as a guide).

In year two, we cut VAT from 20% to 10% and decide to raise £85 billion in LVT.

So we recalculate site only rental values (inputs = last year's tax bill, last year's selling prices minus rebuild costs x typical return of 5%) to give us tax base, divide £85 billion by tax base and send everybody their new bill.

Year three, scrap VAT entirely, set desired receipts at £125 billion (or whatever).

And so on.

"Ergo if you tax rental values, the capital value goes untaxed. The £10m country mansion will not pay 100 times the LVT of a £100K flat. It would probably pay less than 50 times that amount.

In a country brought up on 'progressive' taxation (ie the wealthy paying a larger than 'fair' share) this would be considered manifestly 'unfair', and thus would not be supported."


Are you saying this with your David Cameron or your Ed Milband hat on? Are you saying this is a good thing or a bad thing?

I don't care whether the mansion ends up ten, fifty or a hundred times as much. If it happens to be fifty, well the guy in the little flat now £100,000 will end up paying £5,000 and the lord of the mansion ends up paying £250,000. If that's the outcome, that's the outcome.

Ian B said...

Derek, I'm not arguing from authority, so it matters not what Walras, Menger or Mises preferred. I'm referencing Ricardo only to explain where these stupid and persistent ideas about wages/rents/profits came from.

I see from Mark's above comment he's still presenting the idea of implicit value, and is not going to be dissuaded obviously. But it's worth explaining to anyone else who bothers to read comment threads that he is wrong and why he is wrong.

It's very saddening that he has obviously devoted many hours to thinking about this, and won't sit down for ten minutes and ponder the nature of value, because if he did he might understand it. Take this-

"The total price (or total rent) is for bricks+mortar and location value/size of garden. It is two things which add up to a known total figure."

There it is again; the value is solidified in the goods. It is simply untrue and that has been known beyond any doubt by economists for a century and a half; and had in fact already been guessed at in economic thought before Smith, who unfortunately went off at a tangent into the LTV which misled everyone for about half a century because he was influential, until the "marginal revolution" got things back on track again.

You can't do this sort of arithmetic with value. Like I keep saying, it just does not work that way.

It's rather like somebody saying "the value of a pigeon is the corn it eats divided by the wingspan". You can't as such disprove the statement; there's nothing to test. It is just simply wrong.

Sobers said...

You are calculating rental values then? Not monitoring actual ones?

How is the calculation done? I don't follow what you said in your last post.

As for whether I'm wearing a DC or EM hat, the answer is neither. I'm just pointing out to you that if you are going to convince the population at large that this is a 'good thing' you have to take into account what the public already think on taxation, how much people should pay, and notions of perceived 'fairness'. Its not enough to just say 2/3rds of people would be better off. The politics of envy suggest that many people might well vote against it, despite being personally better off, if it benefited someone wealthier even more.

Anonymous said...

Deniro - "LVT would be a huge subsidy to Renters who allready have their own advantages."

Renters already pay LVT, to the landlord. That owner-occupiers do not* means that they are the ones receiving a subsidy.

(*in fact they do, in part, to the bank. This alludes to what I think *is* a practical issue with LVT implementation, but that's for another time)

"With LVT and a stable house price people would rent and not buy as 8% is more than the rent."

It's far more likely that selling prices would simply fall, all else being equal. How much they would rise (along with rents) based on the other tax cuts is a debateable point.

"People with mortgages would be paying mortgage interest plus the 8%. Thats Definately more than renting."

Again, depends on the selling price. You'll find that they will adjust until there isn't such a clear advantage.

EBM - "unless LVT is set to 100%, then we get a land capital value of 0 and other problems"

I fail to see a problem with land capital value of 0. It's not like that means the site is free - there's a known tax liability associated with it.

Lazy Fraggle

Paul Lockett said...

Ian B, the main problem I have with your arguments is that there is no consistency to them. For example, you made the following statement on another thread, when attempting to defend your belief that you are entitled to a copyright monopoly:

B gains value from A's production, but you are saying it is immoral for A to require compensation from B. How do you justify that?

Of course, that is also used as a Georgist argument, with equal merit, but for some reason, you reject when used that way, often referring to the person offering the argument as a communist.

The more pertinent issue in this instance is that, in your statement, you are assuming that there is an independent value that can be used to justify your copyright, yet in this thread, you've gone to great lengths to tell us no such thing exists.

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, you are off on a complete tangent. Like I said, you are wrong and I am right, I observe real life, observe patterns, I have been tenant, landlord, owner-occupier, I advise people on this as part of my job, other people have done the same, I have justified LVT on a purely moral level, on an economic level, I have given real life examples of what happens when it is introduced and what happens when it is phased out and taxes on incomes increased instead.

All my predictions are based on theories derived from observations, and all of them are borne out in practice. So a model that is so good at predicting things must, by definition, be based on a sound theory.

Why don't you get in touch with the IFS and waflle on about there being no such thing as 'implicit value' and that Smith was a wanker? I'm sure they'll be pleased to hear from you.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S:

"You are calculating rental values then? Not monitoring actual ones? How is the calculation done? I don't follow what you said in your last post."

We have done this to death, and I have explained it, and you can dream up your own system anyway.

The best raw data would be actual rents paid - and we will use them where available.

There is much more data on buying and selling prices, they can be more easily monitored as they have to be reported to the government (HM Land Registry) as a matter of course.

But we can guesstimate rental values from selling prices and build in checks and balances as explained in the footnote to the post. How do you think VOA does it with Business Rates?

As Lazy Fraggles agrees, as long as selling prices > bricks and mortar, then the LVT rate is < 100% and we're are on track.

And as Bayard says, it is primarily RELATIVE values that matter, not absolute ones. As long as the rates are similar in two similar areas with similar rents and prices, and the rates are lower in cheaper areas and more in more expensive areas, then job done.

Frag, don't worry about people with huge mortgages, they are f-ed anyway. This is just an icky transitional measure, I'm sure we can sort something out for them, I would be perfectly happy to say that gullible but otherwise innocent people who are in nequity, despite keeping up repayments on their purchase mortgage, get part of it written off (at the bank's expense) to re-set the clock (a sort of soft-bankruptcy).

Paul, thanks for back-up.

James Higham said...

Ah, the clouds are parting.

Mark Wadsworth said...

JH, glad to be of assistance.

TheFatBigot said...

Mr W, it really isn't necessary to abuse those who point out (what they perceive to be) flaws in your argument. All it achieves is to hoist a red flag indicating you are not going to answer the substantive point made against you.

I wrote:"It is no answer to simply deduct notional re-build costs from actual sale prices of land + building because that assumes the part of the price paid for the building was only re-build cost. That is patently false."

To which you replied: "Why is it patently false? The total price (or total rent) is for bricks+mortar and location value/size of garden. It is two things which add up to a known total figure. Each can be looked at independently. Valuers and property developers do it all the time."

Leaving aside the fact that I then gave two examples which you chose to ignore, your formula of "bricks + mortar and location value / size of garden" makes my point for me.

Why should size of garden have anything to do wih it if the value of the land can be calculated by simply deducting re-build cost from the price actually paid? The answer, of course, is that the balance between the size of the house and the size of the garden affects the price - in other words it is not just re-build cost.

There can be a small difference (just a few thousand pounds) between the cost of building a disproportionately large house compared to one that is in proportion to the size of the garden, yet the latter will usually sell for substantially more - a difference much greater than the differential in re-build costs.

The example I gave of a block of flats on one plot and a single house on another is particularly pertinent. I can illustrate it by reference to two properties in my road. They are the same design of 5-storey town house on plots of near identical size. One is a single house that recently sold for £1,400,000. The other was recently converted from a single house into five flats, the total sale price of the flats was in excess of £2million. To suggest that the re-build costs of each differ by £600,000 is fanciful (not least because I know that the conversion costs were less than £300,000).

Mark Wadsworth said...

TFB, aha, what you are talking about is the value of planning permission, which is a different issue.

e.g. if two identical sized plots next to each other have different planning permission, then they will be worth different amounts.

So if one plot has (planning for) one house and one has (planning permission for) two houses, the first plot will be worth (say) sixty per cent as much as the second one.

With a build cost of £80,000, we might end up with a position like this:

One house with huge garden £140,000 (implied value of land £60,000)

Two houses with small gardens 2 x £130,000 (implied value of land £100,000).

Total value of land in our sample = £160,000.

So if I understand correctly, your gripe is that house with big garden is taxed on notional land value £80,000 (being half of £160,000) rather than on £60,000 (which is what we would get if valued each plot separately). Conversely, the other two houses are taxed on £40,000 each when you think they 'should' be taxed on £50,000 each.

Is this really a big deal?

The first house is using land inefficiently, and the second ones aren't. One of the many purposes of LVT is to encourage people to use land more efficiently. The owner of the first house is free to apply for planning permission to build another one on his plot etc.

The fact that the whole planning system is a load of distortionary shite is no reason to say that we can't have a sensible tax system.

DNAse said...

Argh, I missed another comment-fest!

Bayard said...

Ian B, TFB, - you seem to be attacking LVT on the ground that it is not perfect and that it is impossible to calculate the exact value of the land to use as a tax base. Nobody claimed it was perfect. No tax is perfect, and LVT appears to be less imperfect than the others. The plain facts of the matter are that the government has to collect £4000Bn a year or whatever from various sources and there is no way that it can do this without many taxpayers paying more than they think they should pay and many more paying less than others think they should pay. The present tax system is far from being either perfect or fair. For example, how many of people's income tax is based on their exact income? Most income tax is collected via PAYE and the taxpayers blithely ignore all the other incidental bits of income that accrue over the year, like the tenner your mate gave you for lending him your trailer.

Anonymous said...

"the smallest is maybe a fifth smaller than the biggest etc."
I would be very surprised if that is true my parents semi has 5 bedrooms mine 3 and they are smaller.

Mark Wadsworth said...

DNA, you'll find that the amount of Homey/Faux Lib disinformation is proportional to the likelihood of the tax ever happening. This likelihood has doubled from 0.1% to 0.2%, so let's wait and see what happens if the pol's take this further...

B, exactly. Nobody said LVT was perfect, it's a question of finding least-bad.

Anon, a 5-bed semi is not a 3-bed semi, by definition, so irrelevant for the purposes of this post.

Sobers said...

If your calculation is 'selling price minus building cost times notional rental yield of (say) 5%', then I don't think that equates to rents at all. The cost of rebuilding a house will form a large proportion of cheap houses, and a smaller proportion of expensive ones. Your formula underestimates the rental value of cheap houses massively. According to your calculation a £120k house that currently rents at £500/month (£6K pa) should have rebuild costs of zero!

Anonymous said...

@IanB - I have another example for you regarding the difficulty to pinpoint a precise value but yet still an be taxed. Corporation profits reported on the tax return tend to be an imprecise value and lots of things are subject to subjective opinion. And yet we manage to tax that - albeit not fairly, but we manage to tax them.

@MarkW - I think Sober have a very valid point here. The high value added industries such as banks/software cos will be laughing if their corporation tax is eliminated and it based purely on the office space they occupy. It will be hard to sell this idea to the public.

I would propose for a start to apply LVT to buy to let properties and exempt those from the income tax regime and see how it goes. This is probably the only thing that can be sold to public relatively easily (That will also reward those who fund their BTL using equity rather than debt).

@Lazy Fraggle
Not entirely sure but I think 0 capital value will cause the market to fail to function. Further, the tax is not known as it is adjusted..err say yearly? Further, it would be interesting as I would be happy to takeover some camp site, rent it to travellers/fair ground (or they will just buy some, for £0) and then default on the LVT. As LVT is only enforcible against land

EBM

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, with your wealth of experience, I wish you'd apply commonsense:

"If your calculation is 'selling price minus building cost times notional rental yield of (say) 5%', then I don't think that equates to rents at all."

Yes it does, the residual figure is the extra rental value of the location. Whether we use 4% or 5% or 6% is a separate issue.

"The cost of rebuilding a house will form a large proportion of cheap houses, and a smaller proportion of expensive ones."

Completely agreed. Conversely, we could say that "location rent is a larger share of the total rental value of houses in expensive areas" (I refer you back to my Area B and Area Z example).

"Your formula underestimates the rental value of cheap houses massively. According to your calculation a £120k house that currently rents at £500/month (£6K pa) should have rebuild costs of zero!"

Nope, let's assume rebuild cost £80,000, and times that by 5%, then the rental value of the bricks'n'mortar is £4,000, and the balance of £2,000 is location rent.

Happily enough, we could also minus £80,000 from £120,000 to arrive at £40,000 plot value and times that by 5%, which would also give us a site rental value of £2,000.

EBM, banks can only make so much money because of credit bubbles; sort of credit/land price bubbles and it will just be a service industry like anything else. And sure, tip top merchant bankers will still earn millions, but they'll live in massive houses and so pay the tax that way.

As to software, isn't it a good thing if the UK becomes a more attractive location for locating high-value-added stuff like software? I fail to see how this is a bad thing!

Bayard said...

"The high value added industries such as banks/software cos will be laughing if their corporation tax is eliminated and it based purely on the office space they occupy".

Well, 1, the banks are laughing anyway as they have managed to get themselves zero-rated for VAT, 2, banks tend to occupy very expensive premises that are likely to attract a large amount LVT, 3, LVT will massively reduce the amount of income the banks get from mortgages and 4, who cares if the banks continue to make huge profits? Bully for them. Are you suggesting we should all be worse off, simply so that the banks are not better off? It's a poor argument against LVT that it doesn't sufficiently cater for the Envious.
Anyway, since banks have managed to forge a sound definition of what does or doesn't constitute banking for the purposes of avoiding VAT, that same definition could perfectly well be used to levy some sort of profit tax on the banks to keep the Envious quiet.

Anonymous said...

@bayard/mark - the issue here is high value add industries which does not use up much land, and the fact that we live in a envy thy neighbour democracy. As Mark said earlier, theory is irrelevant, outcome /reality is all the matters and if flat tax won't get through parliament, policies that reduce headline tax rate for high value add businesses to single digit will not get through the parliament.

I don't think bank/bankers/software companies earning large profit is an issue, but large part of the electorate certainly would not agree.

EBM

Anonymous said...

I'd better sign in, as I don't want the Lazy adjective to be a permanent feature of my name ;)

EBM - "Not entirely sure but I think 0 capital value will cause the market to fail to function. Further, the tax is not known as it is adjusted..err say yearly?"

I'm not the one with the numbers on this, but my understanding is that rental values are surprisingly stable. True, there would be an element of caution in prices paid which you would expect in practice to result in LVT for a given plot never quite reaching 100%, not because it's fundamentally unworkable, but simply out of people's caution.

"Further, it would be interesting as I would be happy to takeover some camp site, rent it to travellers/fair ground (or they will just buy some, for £0) and then default on the LVT. As LVT is only enforcible against land"...

(I think MW removed the wrong duplicate, as when I originally read this there was a bit more on the end. I hope I get the gist of what you said.)

I'm not sure what you think the problem is here. The site would go to auction and the winner would then have the right to evict, if they want to.

Mark Wadsworth said...

EBM, Bayard, LVT is not a jealousy surcharge. People will say it is, but it isn't.

Frag, the last para ended thus in the first duplicate:

Further, it would be interesting as I would be happy to takeover some camp site, rent it to travellers/fair ground (or they will just buy some, for £0) and then default on the LVT.

As LVT is only enforcible against land with no recourse... you see the problem there.


100% LVT is a bit iffy, let's call it max 80%. So somebody buys this site, pays a bit of money to vendor and is landed with a monthly LVT bill. If he misses payments without a reasonable excuse and some sort of payment plan, he is evicted, site auctioned off, unpaid LVT deducted and the evictee gets the balance, if any. What's the problem?

Ian B said...

Bayard-

Ian B, TFB, - you seem to be attacking LVT on the ground that it is not perfect and that it is impossible to calculate the exact value of the land to use as a tax base.

Not at all. Firstly, I'm pointing out that Mark doesn't understand the issues he is addressing, which leads to error.

The second point is that there is a general error in Statist economics like Georgism, of thinking "well we can't get the exact right answer but we can get pretty close", which grossly underestimates the errors involved and leads to fantasy quantities being calculated. Keynesians for instance might say, "GDP isn't perfect but it's pretty close". In fact it isn't, it's a largely imaginary figure, and that leads to gross errors in economic planning. People simply underestimate vastly the errors they are making, dismissing them as a "detail" when they are fundamental.

Take this from Anonymous-

"This entire argument is very neatly sidestepped by simply going ahead and levying LVT. By definition, anyone paying the charge values the plot at least that amount (and money even changes hands, Ian!! :) )."

This is a basic error in understanding of value. In any transaction, each transactor perceives themself as gaining more value than they have lost. In a free market, you're not trying to test the maximal price a person would pay, and then say "that is the value". THat isn't the market value. A person might pay £500 in the market for a computer that, if they had to, they would pay £2000 for if market conditions were different. But only £500 was actually involved in the real transaction that took place.

If you could measure all the "what they would pay if they had to values" and add them up, you will get something grossly different to what that actual market values are. This isn't a minor point. It is absolutely crucial. Because if our person did have to pay £2000 for a PC, all his other market interactions would change (he has £1500 less to spend on other things).

You simply cannot get real market values using the fallacious models of value being proposed in this thread. You will simply get wrong answers. Not slightly wrong, but very wrong indeed (and, worse, you cannot know how great the error is).

Mark Wadsworth said...

IanB, aha, you have now explained what you actually mean, at least it makes sense.

But you are still wrong because this is not how a monopolist sets the price, for a given volume, he just wants to sell all his output, which it does by charging market value.

Let's assume that the government decides the tax for an average house is a ridiculous £100,000, far more than the true rental value. So a lot of families really would go abroad and the rest would squash together ten to a home, the government only collects a twentieth as much as it hoped because nineteen-out-of-twenty houses are vacant.

It's far easier for the government to set the tax for an average house at a much more reasonable £10,000 so that all houses are occupied. It collects just the maximum amount of tax without the hassle.

In any event, what you are overlooking is the circularity; for half of households, the LVT is less than the Citizen's Income. So if the nominal gross LVT to be collected is £300 billion, only about £60 billion actually changes hands, i.e the top third chip in a net £60 billion and the bottom two-thirds collect a total of £60 billion.

That £60 billion which the top third will be expected to pay (i.e. their LVT bill net off their CI entitlements) is less than they are currently paying income tax, VAT etc. And even if it is not quite the same as market rent, it's better overpaying slightly for a house than it is to hand over sack loads of income tax for absolutely nothing in return.

So there.

Anonymous said...

@MarkW,

The traveller thing - I was trying to explain problem with 100% LVT / near zero capital value. People can just take over places without stumping anything up and then default on LVT. That is 1 full month (probably more like a year considering how slow court processes are) of chaos each time, then move on and on. (I suppose you can ask for 3 months LVT deposit when people buying lands, but that will be interesting)

My max would be 40% without creating too much distortion.


@fraggle - rental value is reasonable stable but I won't say very stable. If you read the headlines, rent increases are running at double digits. In Asian countries, some are facing a 40% rise in rent recently.

EBM

Sobers said...

Right, now you see you've shifted the goal posts again. Because the rebuilding costs are the same for a similar house, you will (by using this method of calculation) massively over tax more expensive houses (or undertax cheap ones).

Lets take two 3 bed semis. One is in an ex council estate and can be bought for 120K. The other (identical in every way) is in a nicer area and costs 200K. The rebuild costs will be the same (lets say 80K). So the site only rental value on the first one is 120-80*5%=2K. The site only rental value of the second one is 200-80*5%=6K.

If you think you can sell a system to people on the basis that they pay 3 times the tax for a house that's less than double the value, then you're mistaken IMO. The fact that both will be better off (if you take CI into account) won't matter. People will look at the bills, compare house prices and not like it. Simple human nature.

Anonymous said...

IanB - "In a free market, you're not trying to test the maximal price a person would pay, and then say "that is the value"."

But that's precisely what sellers do! They estimate how much they think people are willing to pay and see what happens. If anything they err on the high side. Then if they run out of people willing to buy at that price they reduce it. I really don't see what's so difficult about this.

"A person might pay £500 in the market for a computer that, if they had to, they would pay £2000 for if market conditions were different. But only £500 was actually involved in the real transaction that took place."

I'm not quite sure of the relevance of this point. If the seller has never asked for £2000, then whether it would have that value in the market is untested. Note that that is different from non-existent. Maybe the transaction would have happened @ £2000, maybe it wouldn't. The only way to know is to try and charge that amount. This is literally the effect of LVT. Except it's better, in our current situation, to start small and work up.

"If you could measure all the "what they would pay if they had to values" and add them up, you will get something grossly different to what that actual market values are. This isn't a minor point. It is absolutely crucial. Because if our person did have to pay £2000 for a PC, all his other market interactions would change (he has £1500 less to spend on other things).
"

Actually this an unbelieveably minor point. All you have established in this paragraph (indeed in your entire argument thus far) is that economies are dynamic systems. The only consequnce this has for LVT is that the rate at which you introduce LVT is significant, which I don't think anyone was disputing.

EBM - "The traveller thing - I was trying to explain problem with 100% LVT / near zero capital value. People can just take over places without stumping anything up and then default on LVT. That is 1 full month (probably more like a year considering how slow court processes are) of chaos each time, then move on and on."

That can only happen on totally unused sites that yet have LVT due on them. After LVT has been operating for any significant length of time, how many of those can you realistically expect there to be?

Mark Wadsworth said...

EBM, I'll concede the point on the traveller thing, but under current rules they don't pay any tax either. We're getting into criminal law here, not tax law.

S, no I haven't shifted the goal posts. I have said that there are various ways of working out site rental values, none are perfect.

If we have a situation with
a) £120k house, actual rent £6k, site rental value for tax purposes £2k
b) £200k house, actual rent £10k, site rental value for tax £6k,

then that looks 'about right' to me. This is why using actual rents is better, to the extent the info is available.

It's all very circular - because the selling price of the £200k house will be boosted by the income tax cut (and to a lesser extent the CI) and depressed by the LVT. The selling price of the £120k house will be boosted by the CI (and to a lesser extent the income tax cut) and also depressed (but to a lower extent) by the LVT.

This is why the thing has to be phased in over five or ten years, because we have to recalculate relative values every time.

As to your final comment:

"If you think you can sell a system to people on the basis that they pay 3 times the tax for a house that's less than double the value, then you're mistaken IMO."

I can't work out whether you have your Cameron hat or Miliband hat on. Before you claimed that people in flats will moan because people in £10m mansions will only end up paying fifty times as much, not a hundred times as much. Now you say that people in £200k houses will be moaning because they pay three times as much instead of twice as much.

FFS, LVT is like fuel duty or tobacco duty, the more you use, the more you pay. There is no more to it than that. If you don't like paying fuel duty, then take the bus. If you don't like paying tobacco duty, then stop smoking (or start smuggling). If you don't like paying LVT, then down size.

You keep switching Cameron and Miliband hats, I'm confused. LVT is not a political thing, or at least, it is no more political than fuel or tobacco duty.

Sobers said...

'LVT is not a political thing, or at least, it is no more political than fuel or tobacco duty'

If you don't think LVT is political, you REALLY need to get out more.

As for the politics of envy issue, its very simple. You appear to think that if 3 out of 10 people are worse off and the rest either better off or unaffected, then the 7 will all be in favour of the change. I am suggesting, based on my reading of human nature, and the political nature of the UK public, that not all people vote with their wallets. In fact they are quite likely to kick up rough if they think someone else is getting more than they are, and they consider that the reason why is 'not fair'.

Hence my suggestion that if a £120K house pays a third of a £200K house, even if the latter is still a winner, that person is likely to vote against it. Equally those who are unaffected either way would be more likely to vote on perceived 'unfairness' in the new system.

Couple to this the fact that a solid 30% of the country would vote for a pig with a red rosette (and they did just that in Hull East for 40 years), and these 30% would never vote for a system they considered was giving money to 'the rich' (which LVT would - all those who own big business assets and/or financial wealth would be big winners), and you've got a problem.

I also have a problem with a system that is so unpredictable. I don't think its right to tell people 'Here's your new taxation system. This is your bill for this year. We don't have a clue what your bill will be next year, let alone in 5 years time. Good luck planning your life.'

It also occurs to me that if you are taxing site only rental values only there isn't enough rental value nationally to derive your revenue required. Under your initial proposal LVT would be equal to 8% of selling price (roughly). But you've just said that the site only rental value of a £120K house is 2K! Thats 7.5K short, even when the site rent is taxed at 100%. And this would be the same for all houses. Where is the extra revenue going to come from?

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, I am perfectly aware that politicians and their mates, the bankers and large landowners, have created a belief system whereby taxing incomes is OK, rising land prices is good and artificial scarcity of and subsidies to housing is even better. It was them that politicized it, I'm trying to de-politicize it.

I also take your point about politics of envy, I'm also perfectly aware that a majority support the 50p tax rate, even though it doesn't bring in any revenue, on a political level, I accept all your points. But I'm trying to educate people about economics.

Your last paragraph is way off piste, there is circularity involved. At current market prices (adjusted down for IanB's comments) total rental value of UK land (excl. buildings) is only about £150 billion. How can we raise £300 billion tax on something only worth £150 billion, the audience shouts. Well...

1. This £150 billion is depressed by the fact that people pay their rent, mortgage etc out of post tax income, so the amount they can spend on rents is reduced by £400 billion.

2. Remember that when income tax etc (£400 bn) is abolished, GDP will grow by half of that again (£200 bn).

3. So people will have £600 bn more disposable income to spend, most of the extra will go on rents, so the rental value of land becomes £150 billion + large chunk of £600 billion (call it £600 billion all in).

4. If the LVT system can capture half of that, then we are motoring.

5. I remind you that even with nominal LVT receipts of £300 billion, the government would not bank cheques of £300 billion, because a household's LVT bill is netted off with Citizen's Income first - you either pay the difference or get paid out the difference.

6. The actual net cash flows from people in massive houses to the government, and then from the government to people in small houses would be maybe a quarter of that £75 billion, i.e. five per cent of current GDP, i.e. f--- all in the grander scheme of things.

7. So, if the rental value of a house is £2k, the government wouldn't be collecting that £2k, it would knock it off that household's CI entitlement of (say) £7k and pay out £5k net.

Sobers said...

Your last post has just convinced me the entire scheme is a pipe dream.

You plan to go to people and say:

'Here's a wonderful new way of taxing everyone. This is what your bill will be in year one. You'll probably actually get some money back from the govt and not have to pay a bill. But in year 2 (and thereafter for a good number of years) your tax bill will rise steadily, and you may end up being a net contributor. But we don't know which of you will lose out in the long run, and which of you will be better off. Many of you will have to move house because your bills will be so large you can't pay them. We have no idea which houses will rise in price and which will fall as a result of the new system. In fact the whole thing is a leap into the dark. Please vote for it!'

Political suicide.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, on a purely political level, you make a good point.

(On the maths of it, you are wrong, people's tax bills will gradually fall, but as i propose replacing stealth taxes with an in-your-face tax, people might not perceive that to be the case).

So perhaps it would be better to do like all politicians do, and just lie about one's intentions until one is in power*, and then just gradually phase out taxes on incomes and spending and so on and gradually bump up taxes on land values, just ever so gradually so that nobody notices.

We know from experience that the economy will do better and that winners will outweigh losers, so a government would just have to gamble on the overall increase in the 'feel good' factor to keep it in power until maybe ten years later the switch over had been achieved without anybody noticing, for example, if people's net LVT-CI bills were collected via PAYE.

* Instead of laying out a clear path and explaining the logic, you could just waffle on about 'A New Deal' or 'Big Society' or 'Creating a dynamic economy' or 'Cracking down on welfare cheats' or any such shite.

Sobers said...

If you can't sell it honestly to the public, whats the point? Or are you another 'I know better than the little people' politician?

The trouble with LVT, is its like the old Irish joke 'How do you get to Limerick? Well, I wouldn't start from here!'. If you were starting a new State taxation system from scratch, then its probably the way to go. But we have a system thats pretty much 100% in the opposite direction in its focus. So the economic signals that system creates (rent levels, house prices, savings rates, incomes etc) would have to be completely uprooted and transformed by the new system.

I personally think thats an unacceptable and unnecessary upheaval in peoples lives, if the only goal is extra economic efficiency.

Anonymous said...

S,
I think of this like the whole classical physics -> quantum physics transition. For a long time quantum physics was resisted because accepting it's premises meant throwing out a lot of assumptions upon which classical physics is based. In order to save classical physics it became ever more complex and obscure in order to describe what the physical experiments were reporting. In the end though, the edifice simply couldn't support that weight. The shift in theory from classical to quantum has enabled us to do stuff that simply wasn't possible under a classical understanding.

Similarly with LVT. People resist it because it requires questioning basic assumptions that people have held for a long time, and to try to save private land ownership (in the rentier sense) governments have concocted what you see today and it will only get worse, and the edifice cannot support this weight. If we're willing to challenge those faulty assumptions, then our economy can do things that we've in the past only dreamed of.

People don't like change, I get it. Noone does. But you can't get the practical results of quantum theory while clinging on to the classical paradigm. And we'll destroy ourselves trying.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, it's not so much a question of whether I can 'sell it to the public', because I know for a fact that I can (albeit it is far easier to explain it to younger people, the young at heart and people with a bit of imagination).

The point is that the massed ranks of vested interests - bankers, large landowners, MPs with second homes, journalists with BTL portfolios, Baby Boomers, newspapers who need advertising revenue from estate agents etc - are putting up an excellent barrage of counter-propaganda.

You have illustrated very succinctly how the Daily Mailexpressgraph will portray this, fair play.

As to "I wouldn't start from here", well that's the easy bit as I've always been saying; by rolling the usual suspects (Council Tax, SDLT, IHT, CGT, TV licence, Insurance Premium Tax, 50p tax and non-dom levy, for example) into a flat LVT of approx. 1% of total housing values (or 2% of capital site-only land values; or approx 30% of annual rental value).

Whether we call this LVT, Dom Rates or anything else, is neither here nor.

We could, at its simplest, just guesttimate underlying land value for each home, rank them into council tax bands A to Z, where Band A (the bottom 5%) pays £140 a year and Band Z (the top 0.5% of homes) pays £14,000 a year.

Going by what you have told me, your house (worth. approx £250,000, underlying land value £130,000 for sake of argument) would fall into Band O and the tax would be approx. £1,900 a year.

Under this scheme, the tax bill for ninety per cent of homes would be less than or equal to what they currently pay in C Tax + TV licence.

And yes, there will be some sort of discount, roll-up or deferment option for pensioners (but no IHT).

We'll see how it goes for a year, then scrap VAT, and then do a revaluation and so on.

Bayard said...

"In any transaction, each transactor perceives themself as gaining more value than they have lost. In a free market, you're not trying to test the maximal price a person would pay, and then say "that is the value". THat isn't the market value. A person might pay £500 in the market for a computer that, if they had to, they would pay £2000 for if market conditions were different. But only £500 was actually involved in the real transaction that took place."

This may be your definition of value, but it isn't mine. Things do not have an absolute value. The computer was worth £500, because that was what someone was willing to pay for it then. So what if at another time someone would be willing to pay£2000? Are you trying to say that an oil painting isn't worth £5M today, simply because you could have picked it up for £1 in the C19th? or that it wasn't worth £1 then because someone was going to be prepared to pay £5M in the C21st? Nothing is worth more than someone is prepared to pay for them at the time. Oil tanks that you would have to pay at least £75 on eBay can be picked up at a farm sale for £5. (I know this from direct experience). Given this information, please tell me, what is the market value of a second hand oil tank?

"The second point is that there is a general error in Statist economics like Georgism, of thinking "well we can't get the exact right answer but we can get pretty close", which grossly underestimates the errors involved "

Where is your evidence for this statement? How do these gross underestimates manifest themselves? As I've said before, a tax base doesn't have to be accurate, all you need is some sort of appeal system, as with council tax, and it all sorts itself out. Also perhaps you can give me an example of an economic theory which gets "the exact right answer" every time.

"Political suicide"

Agreed. It's the only Killer Argument against LVT that works. It's why we don't have LVT now. It has absolutely no bearing whatever on whether LVT is an economically beneficial tax or not, or whether the country would be better off with it than without it. The nation's health was far better when we had food rationing. That doesn't mean that it wouldn't be political suicide to propose its reintroduction.

Anonymous said...

IB,

I will ask you the same 0ld question again - third time of asking I think. My Insurance company have been around to offer me the policy on my families old master collection. The paintings have been with us for two hundred years. I have agreed the premium on a 'replacement policy' of 5 million pounds for the most valuable painting. So, how did I put a value=price on this painting? And how did my insurance company do the same? I offered no painting for sale and they purchased no painting.There was no activation of your 'simple' market, price finding mechanism.

You argument has to falsify the argument that a 'fair valuation' in this empirical model is a proxy of 'value'= price.

If it cannot which is what your committing yourself to above, then why would anyone enter into purchasing an insurance policy? Or does this economic activity that contradicts your economic definitions not happen every day in the real world?

Best,
Mikew

Sobers said...

I wish you'd stop bandying around 'vested interests' as some sort of thinly veiled insult. I suppose all the people who would gain from LVT aren't vested interests then? Or are gainers under LVT somehow morally superior to gainers under the current system?

And in your list you are forgetting the biggest vested interest of all - the State. It has a very big interest in being able to increase its revenue year on year via fiscal drag, stealth taxes etc. It is NEVER going to chain itself to a single source of income that is so inflexible. Look at the horrendous fuss currently over 'cuts' in public spending, which are actually just increases below the level of inflation. Try telling you local council that their level of income is £Xm this year but there's no way of knowing if it'll be 5% either way next year.

All your promotion of LVT will achieve is (possibly) a 'mansion tax', with no reduction in other taxation, and one that will be steadily moved down the price scale (or increased less than house price inflation, if there ever is any again). You are just giving intellectual support to those who want to tax people even more than they do already, as can be seen by the grabbing of the LVT idea by the Left.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S: "are gainers under LVT somehow morally superior to gainers under the current system?"

Yes, in the same way as the victim of a crime can be said to be morally superior to the perpetrator.

I take your point on the politicians loving stealth taxes, this is also a large part of the equation, it's on the list somewhere.

"You are just giving intellectual support to those who want to tax people even more than they do already..."

I'm also giving moral support to people who want to reduce income tax or VAT, but those taxes seem quite popular for some reason. If they ignore me on that front, that's as can't be helped.

I've had enough people leaving a comment to peddle the old myths that VAT is a tax on spending and not on production, if people won't listen, then they won't listen.

Bayard said...

"Try telling you local council that their level of income is £Xm this year but there's no way of knowing if it'll be 5% either way next year."

I expect they will be delighted, given that, currently, the bulk of their income comes from central government and its level is dependent on the whim of some politician or other, so that knowing within 5% would be a huge improvement.

"And in your list you are forgetting the biggest vested interest of all - the State. It has a very big interest in being able to increase its revenue year on year via fiscal drag, stealth taxes etc. It is NEVER going to chain itself to a single source of income that is so inflexible."

What you are saying, basically, is that politics in this country is so fucked up that it is pointless trying to change anything. The status quo is the status quo because those who can change it don't want to. That doesn't mean the rest of us shouldn't at least try. To quote Edmund Burke ""All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."

Sobers said...

'What you are saying, basically, is that politics in this country is so fucked up that it is pointless trying to change anything. The status quo is the status quo because those who can change it don't want to. That doesn't mean the rest of us shouldn't at least try. To quote Edmund Burke ""All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."'

Nothing can or will change in this country until the money runs out and the whole edifice crashes to the floor. Then you may be able to implement a LVT/CI type scheme. Until that happens there can be no reforms, for the reasons I have laid out. It cannot be done, other than in extremis, when there is no alternative.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, ta.

S: "Nothing can or will change in this country until the money runs out and the whole edifice crashes to the floor. Then you may be able to implement a LVT/CI type scheme."

A bit like Greece did last week??

Anonymous said...

Ian B:

Your central argument appears to be "valuations are completely different from values because if everyone upped and sold tomorrow, the price would drop to zero.

Well, OK, but that can't really happen, can it? The country is completely free to discover a liking for Mark's drawings, or to discover a million artists who can draw like Mark, and this will obviously have a large effect on the price Mark could obtain for one of his pictures. Art is optional.

People can't just sell up and vanish - they have to live somewhere. There are significant social pressures against emigration on a large enough scale to matter, and against households moving in together to save money (this happens to an extent with single lodgers and spare rooms in family homes, which will affect the demand for 1-bed flats to a point.)

The demand for housing as to stay relatively constant because the number of households doesn't change much. (Yes, there are marginal effects - there's always the divorcing couple that has to live together because it can't afford to live apart and so on, but these are small effects.)

Mark Wadsworth said...

Anon: ""valuations are completely different from values because if everyone upped and sold tomorrow, the price would drop to zero."

Yes, this is a very unlikely scenario, but if we all upped sticks, then clearly UK land values would indeed fall so close to zero as makes no difference.

Which supports my observation that PEOPLE create land values, and not LANDOWNERS.

For sure, more than half the country is both worker/wealth creator and owner-occupier, so they are to some extent all creating value for each other, it is only from the very large bottom to the very small peak of the pyramid (scheme) where there is a large and noticeable transfer of wealth.

As I keep pointing out, under a full on LVT-CI system, about half the households in the country would only pay or receive a couple of thousand quid a year (i.e. total bill either way less than or equal to £3,000, for sake of argument). A small number (a tenth?) would have a net bill of £10,000 or more and the most that the poorest household can get out of the system (by living in a tent, presumably) is also about £10,000.