From the BBC: "House prices drop 1.9% in March... according to the Halifax."
The point at which their index goes five-year-negative is tantalisingly close. Halifax monthly all-buyer non-seasonally adjusted figure for April 2004 was £154,433 and for May 2004 was £159,103; as against £157,066 for March 2009 (from table 13 of the Excel sheet here).
As I posted yesterday on the Nationwide figures "We may have to postpone five-year-negative until May 2009. NB, average price now =£151,000 ,average price in May 2004 = £149,000". I think their April 2004 was £147,000.
So both the Nationwide and Halifax indices will both go five-year-negative (non inflation adjusted!) in April or May 2009 at the latest.
Levelling up
42 minutes ago
4 comments:
So, we're thinking of buying a place at auction on Tuesday - our surveyor gives it a "market value" of £120k - would £100k be a reasonable upper limit on our bid, then?
SB, try and find out what it would cost to rent per annum and times that by ten. Or find out what it was worth in 1995 and double it. That's your upper limit. As a target you want 20% to 30% off 'market value'.
I have made the point about the 10 x factor on here before. Round here - Ipswich - a three bed semi rents for about 550 pcm gross. 550 x 12 x 10 = £66,000. Current market prices are about double this. QED someone's in for a shock. God knows what it's going to do to the masses of scrotty flats that have recently been built. Now what we have to do is to get people to realise that this is a Good Thing.
(BTW - I am now an offficial convert to LVT. So, if LVT is brought in hopefuly it will drive house prices back nicely).
SB, see what Lola says. In the late 1990s, you could buy flats for about eight years' rent (i.e. you just multiplied monthly rent by 100 to work out what you could pay for the flat), so a ten year multiple may possibly turn out to be above what prices are at the bottom.
L, I'm glad to hear that. I only heard about LVT two or three years ago and the more I think about it the more I like it - and the more I hate other taxes.
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