Saturday, 18 June 2016


So, shy Brexiters?

Not really surprising when I see the amount of guff from people I know on Facebook, how we're all racists and old fuddy duddies. I just can't be bothered...


john b said...

Probably not. As someone who used to work in polling, "Shy Tories" was almost certainly never the thing the media made of it - the problem was always sampling bias, as it was in 2015. So the "which poll is right" question is almost always "which sample is least wrong", out of people-who-answer-phones and people-who-join-online-panels.

The big problem for pollsters this time round is that neither of those groups are representative of the population, and that the demographics of in/out-ers aren't reflected by political splits that have been tested in the past (in particular, the fact that In-ers are far likelier than Out-ers to be ABC1s, but also far likelier to be younger, which makes turnout weighting almost impossible).