From the BBC:
How is the quarantine list decided?
The Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) - set up by the government to monitor coronavirus - works with the chief medical officers of each UK nation and advises on which destinations should be on the list. The decision is often made when 20 or more people out of every 100,000 in a country, or island, are infected over seven days, but other factors are also considered..
From the BBC:
On Friday [1 October], the country recorded 6,968 new cases, slightly down from more than 7,000 a day earlier in the week... An estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released on Friday, suggests that roughly one in 500 people in England had coronavirus in the week ending 24 September, only slightly down on the previous week.
7,000 new cases a day x 7 = 49,000 cases per week.
(Sure, there are some false positives, but there will be a lot of people who have mild or no symptoms and don't get tested, so let's accept 7,000).
49,000 ÷ population 70 million x 100,000 = 70.
Which is over three times the official limit.
Check: one in 500 people are infected. Out of 100,000 people, 100,000 ÷ 500 are infected = 200 are infected. Assuming each person is infectious for two weeks, it requires 200 ÷ 2 = 100 new infections per week to maintain the one-in-500 ratio. That's a bit more than the first answer 70, but they are in the same ballpark.
Saturday, 3 October 2020
UK travel restrictions: Why isn't the UK on its own quarantine list?
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
12:48
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Labels: Covid-19, statistics, Tourism, travel
Sunday, 29 December 2019
What if it's Everyone Else That is Right?
From Sky News
The head of the Lake District National Park Authority in Cumbria says the rugged landscape excludes too many people and must change to attract a more diverse mix of visitors.
His warning comes after attempts to make the UNESCO World Heritage site more inclusive have sparked a series of rows with conservationists.
...
Research shows visitors to the Lake District, where the rugged fells inspired the romantic poets and author Beatrix Potter, are too heavily weighted towards older, able-bodied white people.
Why do people even assume that everyone else wants this? My idea of a nice holiday is going to France, barbecuing mergeuz, drinking wine, swimming in a pool, reading books and exploring the history in the local area. I'm not going to go to a place with even worse weather than Wiltshire to spend my days walking up and down muddy hills wearing a cagoule.
I suspect the people who do it probably have a history of doing it. It's what they did with their parents as kids, so they carry on doing it. The people who came over from the Caribbean or from India didn't do it, so it's never grown.
Posted by
Tim Almond
at
12:34
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Labels: lake district, travel
Thursday, 20 July 2017
I once went to Germany "for six months" and the same thing happened to me.
From The Onion:
CHARLOTTE, NC—Suddenly stopping in his tracks as he boarded the Lynx blue line to go apply for a library card on Tuesday, local man Mark Collier came to the horrifying realization that he was putting down roots in the city of Charlotte, NC...
I ended up staying for nine years. Qualifications, job, friends, wife, kids, bank account, telephone, the lot.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
15:56
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Labels: travel