Putin - the CEO of an oil and gas company with its own armed forces

Most of the reasons bandied about as to why Putin invaded Ukraine are clearly nonsense, unless he is insane. Denazification? Reclaiming lost Russian territory? A buffer zone between evil NATO and Mother Russia proper? Winning a popular war to burnish his tough guy image and distract his 'voters' from the failing economy/massive corruption (of which he is the main beneficiary)? They all seem implausible to me.

I watched a 40 minute video by Real Life Lore on YouTube which does seem very plausible, and does not presume insanity on Putin's part.

The post title is a quote from the video; he wants to be CEO of a state-owned/controlled monopoly, but a qualification for that is being President. Anything he does to remain in power is to be able to permanentaly re-appoint himself as CEO. He also has to run oil and gas half way competently to be able to pay off his selected oligarchs, with a bit left over to bribe the electorate.

Basically, all his invasions and interventions - Georgia, Chechnya, even Syria, annexing The Crimea, arming Donbas separatists, and now Ukraine proper - are about securing oil and gas reserves and/or controlling pipelines and ports (Black Sea, Aral Sea). Russia either takes the territory directly or bullies neighbouring countries into compliance (Kazakhstan, Byelorussia, Azerbaijan). There are also apparently lots of gas reserves in the Sea of Azov, which Russia now has surrounded.

And Putin got away with all the previous incursions, the West did little to stop him apart from a few token sanctions, so he thought we would turn a blind eye to this one, which we didn't. Sleepy Joe as good as declared war on him personally.

Which is also why Putin couldn't care less if he carpet bombs the Donbas and Mariupol back to the Stone Age, he needs to control the geographic territory, not the people. They are superfluous to requirements (and he'd rather they all fled, today's civilian is tomorrow's partisan).

Also, Putin fights like a girl, belying his tough guy image.
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Anybody who starts bleating "But what about the Americans invading Iraq? They are just as bad!" can shut up. For sure, that was largely about oil (David Frost goaded Donald Rumsfeld into blurting that out) and not about WMDs (surely nobody believed that crap) or because Hussein was harbouring Al Qaeda (clearly bollocks).

But the Yanks did not routinely carpet bomb all the large cities, they didn't want the domestic backlash and dreamed they could win over the local population (yeah, right).

Furthermore, it was not too difficult to dislodge Hussein as a dictator, there was hardly a groundswell of popular support for him, the various factions were looking forward to fighting with each other again. Not that any of this is particularly relevant to what Putin's motives are.

Humourless twat of the week (2)

The ever so thin-skinned Mad Vlad strikes again, from MSN/Forbes:

Depardieu, who has had close ties to Putin since 2013 and even received a Russian passport directly from Putin, told AFP on Thursday the Russian people were “not responsible for the crazy, unacceptable excesses of their leaders like Vladimir Putin.”

The Kremlin said it would be “ready” to explain the situation in Ukraine so that “he understands better” if Depardieu “wants,” AFP reported. Depardieu, who previously supported Russia’s annexation of Crimea, is “not completely immersed in the political agenda,” Peskov said.

Depardieu “does not understand what happened in Ukraine in 2014, he does not understand what the Minsk agreements are, he does not understand what Donetsk and Luhansk are, he hardly understands what is the bombing of civilians, he is unlikely to know about the nationalist elements,” Peskov said, according to Politico.

Wot? Anybody who slags off Mad Vlad gets personally invited to Re-education Camp? Even if Depardieu were totally 100% wrong, why should this concern a Head of State?

Humourless twats of the week

Will Smith.

They should have chucked him out there and then and given his Oscar to one of the other nominees. What's even more vomit-inducing is that when Chris Rock made his joke, Will Smith initially laughed along. If his wife doesn't appreciate alopecia jokes, that's hair loss not mine.

Waitrose

Nobody goes to ASDA to buy Waitrose products. TESCO also have a line called Tesco Essentials.

Vlad Putin

I happened to have the telly on when Biden did his speech. It was everything short of a declaration of war. Clearly, Biden - along with half the civilised world - would vastly prefer it if Putin disappeared or were disappeared, by fair means or foul, and he said so. Mad Vlad apparently got all offended and various White House spokespersons (and sadly Big Joe himself) have been backtracking ever since. (Trump would have just said it and then denied that he'd said it. And we would have all moved on with our lives, unsure of what Trump actually meant, but not particularly caring).

Sod that. Mad Vlad has made it perfectly clear that he'd like to get rid of Zelensky and appoint his own puppet President in Ukraine like he did until 2014. Did Zelensky throw a hissy fit and demand an apology? Nope, what would be the point? He's too busy persuading the West to send military and humanitarian aid. If Mad Vlad said that he'd prefer it if Donald Trump were still US President, would Biden throw a hissy fit and demand an apology? I doubt it. He wouldn't get one, for a start.

"Better off dead"

This whole Ukraine/World War III is really getting me down. I responded the only way I know how:

"Putin’s bodyguards given prime land and plum jobs"

Emailed in by Jack B, from The Times:

President Putin’s former bodyguards have been rewarded for their loyalty with appointments to key posts, while their families have received high-value land near Moscow in an allegedly corrupt property scheme, a Russian newspaper has claimed.

Not much different to what William The Conqueror and his descendants were up to, in other words. Funny how The Times doesn't look at UK land ownership in the same light.

"How embarrassment may be Putin's downfall"

Sven Hughes in City AM, three days ago:

When serving as a British army reservist within Psychological Operations, we used to refer to these subtle divisions as “fissures”.

These fault lines in enemy audiences could be exploited to create great chasms between the authoritarians and the minions that sustained their power. Quite simply, the minions love the sense of associated status they get from being in cahoots with the authoritarian – they don’t like to be laughed at.

The RT interview seemed to reveal this exact fissure – Putin’s arrogance is starting to make even his most loyal supporters feel social embarrassment.

This could be the one silver lining for the west from the Salisbury incident. Information warfare only works when you have the broadcasters and re-broadcasters in place to disseminate your message. One break in the chain, such as a pair of agents becoming an international laughing stock, and the whole propaganda machine quickly suffers a complete malfunction.

An interesting but very bold prediction, I thought.

To my surprise, from the BBC today:

... the cover-up seems to have backfired as badly as the actual operation. Instead of quaking with fright, many Russians are laughing at their spies instead.

"It's not just teasing, it's mockery. I have friends who couldn't believe our lot could be so rotten," Gennady Gudkov admits. "Now they call me, and they believe."

With jokes and memes flooding social media, some commentators suggest a line has been crossed.

"What seemed morally unacceptable before has become the new norm, it's routine," Andrei Kolesnikov wrote on Gazeta.ru, calling the Salisbury suspects' appearance a "clown show" and their story "obvious, evasive lies".

But he sees another new norm in response.

"Society is laughing at the authorities," the journalist wrote. "State propaganda is becoming genuinely comic and that discredits and weakens those in power."

Fun Online Polls: Russia/Syria & North Korea

The results to last week's Fun Online Poll were as follows:

Should the G7 impose further sanctions on Russia because of Assad's nerve gas attack in Syria?

Yes - 7%
No - 93%

Good, I was with the majority on that.

There was some scepticism in the comments as to whether Assad's regime was behind the attack and whether there was actually a nerve gas attack. I would add, even if there was and Assad's forces were behind it, how are the Russians to blame (the people as opposed to Putin) and even if Putin were somehow to blame, what difference would it make, apart from pushing up our domestic gas prices and making Putin even more delusional?

Thanks to all 81 who took part.
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This week, let's stick with the big issues.

"How would you prefer Donald Trump to deal with North Korea?"

Vote here or use the widget in the sidebar.

"Ukraine vote plan blights Crimean business investment, says Cable"

From the BBC:

Oleksandr Turchynov's commitment to an in/out referendum on continuing membership of the Russian Federation is "blighting" investment in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin will warn later.

The former KGB official will say firms will "look elsewhere" to invest if access to the Russian market is jeopardised…

Mr Turchynov says a full renegotiation of the relationship between Ukraine and Moscow is needed and voters need a say on the issue of membership of the Russian Federation.

In other news:

Crimean MPs' commitment to an in/out referendum on continued membership of Ukraine is "blighting" investment in the region, acting Ukraine President Oleksandr Turchynov will warn later.

The politician will say firms will "look elsewhere" to invest if access to the Ukraine market is jeopardised…

Crimean MPs say a full renegotiation of the relationship between Crimea and Kiev is needed and voters need a say on the issue of membership of the Ukraine.

Pussy Riot

He's put in for a promotion

Works of towering genius

Via Newgate News, the Delit Maille, where they knit caricatures. I find it difficult enough getting a likeness with pen and paper and I have established that even knitting a flat square is mental torture, so they have beaten me into a cocked hat on both counts

I'm sure that Ross can put a "Putin is gay" spin on this story...

... see second photo here.

I'm not sure if it's a boy dog or a girl dog, but hey, I'm sure our Putin watcher will find out; if it's a boy dog, he's gay; if it's a girl dog, he's using her as a 'beard', or something.

It's not true until they deny it

Ross was the first to pick up on the total gayness* of Vladimir Putin, who has now inadvertently confirmed it to be true by 'coming out' with this rather pathetic denial.

* Please note that I would not like this to be misconstrued as in any way homophobic. If a politician is man enough to come out - Alan Duncan, Peter Mandelson etc - they usually get left in peace in that respect, and rightly so.

"Prodi declines Putin's offer of top post at South Stream"

Gerard Batten MEP (UKIP, London) is known to have called for an inquiry into Alexander Litvinenko's allegations that "Italian Prime Minister and former President of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, had been the KGB's man in Italy."

Hmm. I filed that factoid away under 'conspiracy theory' when I first read it.

But what do we read in today's FT?* Why on earth would a natural gas company want to employ a 68 year old failed life-long politician? Alan Duncan MP or Dr Vince Cable MP**, sure, they know about this stuff. But Romano Prodi? WTF does he know about oil or gas pipelines?

That Gerhard Schröder was Moscow's Man In Berlin*** is well known, also that he did not, repeat not, dye his hair black while Bundezkanzler (and he will sue your arse off if you suggest otherwise).

* The post title is taken from the print version.

** Is he a politician turned oil-man turned politician, or oil-man turned politician?

*** Obviously, he started life as Moscow's Man In Bonn, but that doesn't sound as menacing, somehow...