tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post8249755673346012844..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: FascinatingMark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-83408060032161028722016-06-19T02:47:05.710+01:002016-06-19T02:47:05.710+01:00Probably not. As someone who used to work in polli...Probably not. As someone who used to work in polling, "Shy Tories" was almost certainly never the thing the media made of it - the problem was always sampling bias, as it was in 2015. So the "which poll is right" question is almost always "which sample is least wrong", out of people-who-answer-phones and people-who-join-online-panels. <br /><br />The big problem for pollsters this time round is that neither of those groups are representative of the population, and that the demographics of in/out-ers aren't reflected by political splits that have been tested in the past (in particular, the fact that In-ers are far likelier than Out-ers to be ABC1s, but also far likelier to be younger, which makes turnout weighting almost impossible).john bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13784096180652522939noreply@blogger.com