President Erdogan does glorious mixed metaphors.

He's the gift that keeps on giving.

From the BBC:

Mr Erdogan told a news conference in the Turkish capital, Ankara: "You [the USA] act on one side as a strategic partner, but on the other, you fire bullets into the foot of your strategic partner. We are together in Nato and then you seek to stab your strategic partner in the back."

You shoot yourself in the foot, not the other person. And clearly Trump hasn't stabbed them in the back, he has stabbed them quite openly in the face.

Buying weapons off the Russians, like Turkey has started doing is pretty sneaky, that is more akin to a stab in the back. And if he thinks he can defend the Turkish currency against a determined onslaught, he's got another think coming.

President Erdogan does a glorious diagonal comparison.

From City AM:

US President Donald Trump has taken a hard line against Turkey over the fate of American pastor Andrew Brunson, who has been detained in Turkey for the last two years, accused of links to the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Gulenist movement which has faced a crackdown after a failed coup in 2016...

In a New York Times article at the weekend Erdogan threatened that NATO-member Turkey could “start looking for new friends and allies” if the US did not reverse its trend of “unilateralism and disrespect”. Turkey also wants the US to hand over Pennsylvania preacher Fethullah Gulen which it blames for the 2016 coup attempt.

Woah! That's not how prisoner exchanges work.

Brunson is an American held in Turkey against his will; he wants to go back to America.

Gulen is a Turk in exile in America very much under his own will; he does not want to back to Turkey.

"Turkish government had enormous arrest lists ready ‘just in case'"

Newsthump on top form.

Is the UK going to stay in the EU?

Yes. Regardless of whether there is a Yes or a No vote (or Cameron bottles it and claims enough of a victory with his renegotiation).

Okay so, admittedly Douglas Carswell has a great sci fi vision vision of a beefed up Singapore and at least he's honest on migration:

“Our grandparents’ generation had to get to grips with the idea of importing strawberries from Spain and mangetout from Kenya. Today we live in a world where labour mobility is inevitable, and unless you want to become like North Korea you need to accept it. You can no more ban labour mobility than food imports.”

And diet Trump (Nigel Farage, obvs) has a slightly more scary vision of a little England (and to a Scot it sounds very England centric, odd that to a Scot he seems to want his own mini EU) that restricts migration and withdraws from the common market to regain control of "sovereignty". I get that there are people left behind by globalisation. I just don't have a lot of sympathy. Across my facebook these seem to be mostly the idiots who dicked around and thought that leaving School in the 90s at 16 and going to work in the box folding factory was a job for life. Under the UKIP migration plan the UK population would shrink by hundreds of thousands of people a year. And a falling population would mean a downsized economy. Which will probably bite all the UKIP voting pensioners who didn't save for their retirement (and sure as buggery didn't pay tax for things like free bus passes and TV tax exemption but somehow this is fairer than not forcing kids into brain mortgages). 

And of course Corbyn was quite anti EU until recently. I would imagine a Leftxit would involve a lot of doomed industrial activism and rapid nationalisations and probably some sort of nightmarish. beardy, geography teacher looking revolutionary guard. 

And while all that sounds great, if you are pitching something to Netflix to take on Amzon's the Man in the High Castle, it's probably not what is actually going to happen. Or at least not what is actually contingency planned to happen. 

The most likely outcomes are; 

1. Can we be Switzerland?

2. No? Okay we'll be Turkey then. 

Switzerland first. Switzerland is a Schengen signatory and accepts free movement (though they have some restrictions on new entrants). Switzerland signs up to almost all EU law, and pays almost as much into the EU as the UK does. Being outside the EU it can choose not to apply EU regulations but in practical terms, i.e. because it would lose access to the EU market in those areas, it has have never actually done this. The big disadvantages here are no voice in EU decision-making and no access to the EU's international trade deals.

Turkey next. Turkey has a customs union with the EU. It neither benefits from nor offers free movement to the EU, and doesn’t need to apply all EU law. However, it doesn’t get access to the single market or EU global trade but is still forced to open its market to everyone the EU strikes a deal with. 

The idea that the UK is going to become some isolationist bastion in the Atlantic and somehow ignore the huge trading block 20 miles as the celeb swims off the south east coast is just delusional madness. 

So Turkey or Switzerland (Switzerland is proxying for the whole EFTA). For me, Switzerland is the most likely outcome of a no vote but it is also the version that will feel identical to a Yes. 

If you push your luck too often, you will get shot down.

From The Telegraph, 13 September 2015:

RAF jets were last week scrambled for the seventh time this year to intercept Russian bombers near the UK. Flights by Russian long-range nuclear bombers skirting British airspace routinely spy on UK air defences, but should not be considered provocative, a senior former Russian officer has told the Telegraph…

We Brits are far too civilised to just shoot them down. We'd measure to an inch whether they really were within 'British airspace and would stand politely to one side if they were outside it. And there'd be all sorts of unpleasantness afterwards for those involved.

We can safely assume that the Russians take the piss over or near dozens of other countries as well, most of whom also tolerate them being such arse holes.

Turkey warned Russia in early October that it would no longer endure violations of Turkish airspace, and last week they snapped and shot one down.

So that while that one overflight last week might have been an innocent mistake, in terms of the bigger picture, the Russians got what they deserved.

Instead of whining and asking for an apology, what the Russians might try is a tactic called "not violating other people's airspace" or "politely asking for permission first". That often works, how do you think civil aviation functions?

Something worth haggling over.

From the BBC:

EU states have approved an action plan for Turkey, which it is hoped will ease the flow of migrants to Europe.

Nearly 600,000 migrants have reached the EU by sea so far this year, many of them travelling from Turkey to Greece before seeking to head north. Turkey made a number of demands in exchange for helping to stem the flow…

Turkey had also asked for €3bn (£2.2bn, $3.4bn) in aid, something German Chancellor Angela Merkel said EU states were considering.

1. From Turkey's point of view, they have to hold out for at least as much as it costs to put up tents and camps for all these people, something the Turks are apparently very good at. The short term cost is knowable, the long term cost could be much lower or zero, depending on how well the people integrate.

2. From European countries' point of view (unless you are insane like Angela Merkel), each 'asylum seeker' has a known short term cost for food and accommodation, but the long term cost is unknowable. Some of them will integrate, work hard and contribute to society (thus being a benefit rather than a cost) but an unknown number will be terrorists, criminals or slackers. It is very difficult to estimate the overall cost of the last three categories, and you can't put a price on 'social cohesion'.

3. Suffice to say, the price Turkey needs to be paid to keep one person is much lower than the (potential) cost to European countries of one such person. As long as the price paid is somewhere between those two, then both parties to the deal have made a profit.

4. So we do the two calculations and I don't think that Turkey is being overly greedy:

a) There are about two million people in their camps. £2.2 billion divided by 2 million is only £1,100 per person, which doesn't seem like much to me, even if it's payable yearly not just a one-off.

b) From the UK's point of view, let's assume one-quarter of the 600,000 trying to get to Europe end up here = 150,000 and we have to pay a quarter of the £2.2 billion cost, that's £3.700 each. That's a lot, lot cheaper than processing an asylum claim. That's a tiny fraction of what it costs us if somebody turns out to be a terrorist, criminal or slacker.

It cost £2 million to get rid of Abu Qatada and pay his family welfare. There only need to be a few dozen bad apples among our 150,000 and that's burned straight through our one-quarter of £2.2 billion.

Yes, we will lose a few genuine hard workers who have no interest in stirring up tensions, but so what?

Looking at it this way, if I were Turkey, I'd hold out for a bit more, a bit like Colonel Gaddafi tried (and failed).

"Pope Francis tries to build bridges in sceptical Turkey"

From the BBC:

The crowd was small, but passionate. The civil engineering faithful here are few.

A mix of young and old architects and transport planners, though, were waiting for the Pope to arrive at the Turkish Society of Civil Engineers in Istanbul.

It is tucked behind a discreet doorway on a main road, and the pavement was sealed off behind a temporary security barrier. Attendance at the special mass with Pope Francis, who read Civil Engineering in Argentine before joining the priesthood, was by invitation only.

When the Pope arrived at last, they gave him a subdued but positive welcome; youngsters desperately holding up their mobile phones to try and get better reception to be able to reply to those last minute emails from work.

The 77-year old Pontiff did not disappoint; he seemed energized by the cheers, smiling broadly as he outlined plans for a new six-lane suspension bridge over the Bosphoris linking central Istanbul with Usküdar, five miles to the west of the exsiting suspension bridge.

Elsewhere in Turkey, though, there was little interest in what is seen as a vanity project, made largely superfluous by the new tunnel which was completed and opened a year ago.

Tokyo loses race to host Games

From the BBC

Tokyo has been chosen to waste billions on the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games ahead of Istanbul and Madrid.

The Japanese capital lost a final round of voting by International Olympic Committee (IOC) members in Buenos Aires to lose to Istanbul by 60 votes to 36.

The announcement was met with anger from taxpayers in Japan, as Tokyo prepares to host the event for the first time since 1964.

When IOC president Jacques Rogge - who will retire after 12 years in the role on Tuesday - announced the winning city, Madrid taxpayers jumped to their feet in celebration and waved the Spanish flag.

A number of them were overcome with emotion and wept, following two years of anxiety.

"I would like to thank everyone in the Olympic movement for giving the games to Tokyo" a delighted Istanbul taxi driver said.

A Spanish software developer added: "It is a great that Tokyo has been chosen. I'd like to thank them for picking up the tab for my entertainment. We really dodged a bullet there."

Sometimes NIMBYs are right (2)

From the BBC:

The Turkish government says it has agreed to suspend redevelopment plans for an Istanbul park until a court ruling, after talks with protesters. The plan to rebuild an old barracks on Gezi Park has sparked Turkey's biggest anti-government protests in decades.

A government spokesman said there would be no attempt to start the project until a court decided whether or not it was legal. If the court backed the government, the project would be put to a popular vote...

The contested park is a rare patch of green in Turkey's biggest city.

I'm sure there was more behind all this than the loss of a precious bit of public green space, but well done, those Turkish protesters all the same.

Separated at birth

US American film actor George Clooney and Turkish President Abdullah Gül:

Fun Online Polls - Asil Nadir and NIMBYs

Last week's Fun Online Poll was possibly the least conclusive result I have ever had. The question was "What's the Latin for 'You let the bastards grind you down'?" (so's we can club together and have it engraved on a watch to give to Asil Nadir). Sixteen people (included me) voted "I have no idea" and a few people left suggestions as follows:

James D: nolite nothis permittere/sinere vos terere
James D: nolite facere terant vos nothi
Hektor: nothis permittuisti te terere
Derek: noli nothis permittere te terere
Derek: illegitimi carborundum permittis

Thanks for that, but I've no idea which one is best. Make up your own minds.
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This week's Fun Online Poll is nice and easy: "What motivates NIMBYs?"

Cast your vote here or use the widget in the sidebar.

Fun Online Polls: Jill Dando & Asil Nadir

I ran this week's Fun Online Poll purely out of general interest, prompted in part by Barry George winning the first round in his 'battle for compensation' - when poor old Jill Dando was murdered, most people I asked could remember exactly where they were when they heard about it.

I don't know why it affected people like this - probably because she was such a nice person that nobody would have expected her to be murdered. But either it didn't affect people that much or memories have faded: the actual responses were:

Can you remember where you were when you heard that Jill Dando had been murdered?

No - 59%
Yes - 18%
Who was Jill Dando? - 23%

Thanks to everybody who took part.
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This whole Asil Nadir returning from exile to face the music story is another one of those puzzlers.

Why on earth did he do it? Has he managed to convince himself of his own innocence, finally done a deal with the Serious Fraud Office, or is it the result of some behind the scenes machinations - maybe Northern Cyprus wants to merge with Free Cyprus again and thus smuggle itself into the EU (as a precursor to Turkey joining, who knows?) and maybe the UK, as a major EU member made this one of the pre-conditions?

There's always skullduggery with these things, such as Scotland releasing Al McGrahey on 'compassionate grounds' rather than admitting that it has something to do with an oil deal with Libya; or such as the USA's long running campaign to persuade Swiss banks to hand over private information, to which Switzerland responded by suddenly arresting Roman Polanski - who'd owned a house there for years - and offering him up as a sacrificial lamb.

Rather mysteriously, the plan to extradite him was shelved again a few weeks before the Swiss banks finally caved in and handed over what the USA wanted.

So that's the next Fun Online Poll: "What's the Latin for 'You let the bastards grind you down'"?. It'd be great fun to get it engraved on a watch and send it to him in prison to match his other one (which is actually mentioned in Hansard, column 21).

Answers here or use the widget in the sidebar.

... but apart from that, the wedding went as planned.

From The Metro:

A groom killed his father and two aunts after firing into the air with a gun to celebrate his wedding. The man lost control of the automatic weapon, accidentally turning it on guests and injuring eight other relatives, according to reports. He was arrested after the deaths in Gaziantep, Turkey, on Saturday. It is still a tradition in the country to shoot into the air to celebrate weddings and sports victories, despite harsh punishments brought in to cut down on accidents.

Perhaps they could do a film version starring Hugh Grant and Andie McDowell, called something like A wedding, three funerals and a criminal trial?

See also: Family shot, beheaded in wedding dispute.

Wierd

From The Metro:

Mr Cameron also said Turkey's support for action in Afghanistan would help earn it a place in the EU (1). 'When I think about what Turkey has done to defend Europe as a Nato ally, and what Turkey is doing today in Afghanistan, it makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be frustrated in the way it has been,' he added.

Pointing to economic growth of 11 per cent this year and a population of 72 million, he said allowing Turkey into the EU would be great for British trade (2).

1) What on earth does Afgh have to do with anything? There are plenty of non-EU countries who have sent troops to Afgh - primarily the USA, but also Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Azerbaijan and Singapore - does this mean that they ought to be invited to join the EU? In any event, it is entirely up to the Turkish government whether they think it is in their national interest to get involved, and if they'd rather not get involved, then that's between them and NATO.

2) And what's stopping the UK from having free trade with Turkey? I can only assume it's the EU, ergo it would be a lot quicker and simpler for the UK to leave the EU and sign a bilateral free trade treaty with Turkey, job done.

PS, Gaza is not a prison camp.

Woman On A Raft nails it

WOAR, in the comments to my previous post: "Given that the world needs a certain amount of opium for legitimate purposes, never mind the disputed ones, and Afghanis are very good at producing it, I simply can't see why the world doesn't treat it like any other crop as part of a mixed economy in Afghanistan and set about regulating it and securing the Afghani farmers' markets to bring at least some economic stability to their lives".

There were additional useful statistics in the print version of this article, which suggest that worldwide production of "illegal" opium outweighs the production of "legal" opium (used in hospitals etc) by three-to-two, so if you juggle the figures and make a few fair guesses, it appears that Afghanistan's total production is roughly equal to world demand for "legal" opium. So farmers in Tasmania, Turkey and France will just have to find something else to do. The demand for "illegal" opium (i.e. heroin) could be reduced significantly if we went back to the policies that we had until about 1970, of course.

That's that fixed. Next.

Epic Fail

How can we have overlooked this one?

It's even better than the video of the hotel falling into a river in Taiwan!

"US urges short Turkish campaign"

Or "Do as we say, don't do as we do".

Yeah, like the Turks are going to turn to the US for advice!?