Wednesday 30 January 2019

Glorious Remainer circular logic

This all reminds me a bit of the quote from 1984*: "It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.

From The Guardian, 4/1/2019: No-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for UK farmers, warns NFU

Remainers follow up with the claim that in the even of No Deal Brexit, the supermarket shelves will be empty.

It's never made clear why farmers in EU Member States would suddenly stop wanting to sell us food, or whether this is a tacit admission that EU Member States, foremost France want to try and starve us to death, but hey. Fact is, one third of the food we eat is imported from EU Member States.

It's never made clear why UK farmers wouldn't be over the moon if they faced no competition from farmers in EU Member States.

But hey, let's run with it...

I posted about the empty shelves article, and the free traders among us agreed that not imposing tariffs on food imports (from EU Member States or elsewhere) would be a good idea.

Remainer George Carty then leaves the following comment under my empty shelves post:

Wouldn't unilateral free trade just mean that ruthless East Asian mercantilists wipe out what's left of our industry, while cheap American imports wipe out most of our agriculture?

This glosses over the point that under WTO rules, just because we don't impose tariffs on food imports doesn't mean we have to lift tariffs on manufactured goods (even though that would be a good idea) but again, give them enough rope...

This neatly closes the circular logic:

* UK farmers suffer because they can't export to EU Member States.
* UK consumers/retailers suffer because they can't import from EU Member States, shelves will be empty.
* American farmers will fill our shelves again, presumably with "chlorinated chicken" (whatever that is).

Is it not possible that this largely cancels out - UK farmers will just sell more domestically and export less. If the French government imposes a blockade on us (not sure how that will go down with les gilets jaunes), other countries will take up the slack. I don't see how you can paint the Americans as the baddies in all this - they are the ones NOT imposing a trade blockade.

* The year the film was released, not the book by George Orwell.

10 comments:

Matt said...

I'm looking forward to the american chlorine soaked chicken despite being given no choice in the matter about eating it.

Mark Wadsworth said...

M, then don't buy it. You absolutely have a choice.

Shiney said...

That is a quote from Terminator.

Shiney said...

Which is a GREAT film.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Sh, see foot note :-)

Lola said...

My local butcher sells excellent locally sourced chickens for a reasonable price. How's that going to stop after Brexit?

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, new sanitary checks. Or something.

Physiocrat said...

As a graduate in the subject, I am intrigued by the chemistry of chlorinated chicken. There are 19 possible compounds of chlorinated phenol, a simple molecule; even monochlorophenol has three isomers.

There is an entire research topic here, enough to warrant a professorship with a whole department of researchers. Who will be the first Professor of Chicken Chlorination, I wonder?

Lola said...

MW Didn't you mean 'because reasons'?

Mark Wadsworth said...

Ph, nominate yourself :-)

L, yes, those too.