Thursday, 31 January 2019

More Brexit LOLZ

Via TBH, from The Independent:

Britain would keep paying into the EU budget for years after a no-deal Brexit under contingency plans drawn up by the European Commission. In a move likely to enrage Brexiteers and cause yet another political row in Westminster, on Wednesday Brussels unveiled proposals for the UK to keep up its payments for the 2019 EU budget and beyond.

Ho hum, in exchange for what, exactly? They've had three years to plan for this.

From The Belfast Telegraph:

The Irish economy could be around 4% smaller in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Irish Finance Minister has said. Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure & Reform Paschal Donohoe said that although the Irish government are hopeful of a deal, plans must be in place for a “disorderly” Brexit.

From the BBC:

An Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) study found that Dutch exports to the UK could drop by 17% in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

While the UK's customs authority HMRC says it has "well-developed plans" for a functioning system from day one, fruit and vegetables are the Dutch exports most vulnerable to disruption.


Also from the BBC:

The head of France's main farmers' union has warned that a no-deal Brexit could have a severe impact on French agricultural exports. Christiane Lambert of the FNSEA union said French wine and spirits producers would be hit hardest, as their sector had a €1.3bn (£1.1bn; $1.5bn) annual surplus in trade with the UK.

From coop.news:

In a press statement published on 17 January, the Spanish federation of agri food co-ops (AGACA) said it regretted the outcome of the vote on the deal, which, it argued, had led to more uncertainty...

Should the UK leave the EU without a trade deal, both sides will have to apply WTO tariffs from 29 March. Under WTO rules, tariffs for agri food products average at 20%. However, they go as high as 100% for meat, dairy and sugar products, between 40% and 90% for grains and 30% or more for fruit and vegetables.


(That last bit is bollocks. If a Spanish business imports food from the UK, it will have to levy EU-mandated import tariffs, not "WTO Tariffs" which aren't compulsory or even guidelines, but recommended maximum limits. The UK can impose any old tariffs it likes up to those limits, or none at all).

But the overall tenor is clear - the EU itself, from the point of view of the top dogs in Brussels, doesn't care about economics, they care about "ever closer political union" and so the UK must be seen to be punished most severely for leaving - for example by being a choice between a completely unacceptable May's Deal and the vague threats of "disorderly Brexit". And then being expected to continue paying in.

Actual producers in EU Member States care very much about economics, i.e. minimal disruptions to trade, I doubt whether they give a hoot whether the UK leaves the EU or not as long as they can keep selling us food and cars and so on, which we are perfectly happy to buy from them. In whose interests is it to disrupt this? Why don't those affected put a bit of pressure on the top dogs in Brussels to stop being such complete bastards?

14 comments:

Staffordshire man said...

As far as know, at the moment we collect tariffs from non-EU countries on behalf of the EU, I believe that it is in the order of £3.5B of which we get to keep 20% as a handling charge and pass the remainder on to Brussels. After March we can choose to not collect this or trouser the whole amount, in any event the EU is down about £3B. I've not seen any mention of this anywhere.

Mark Wadsworth said...

SM, I have checked and you are correct. I've learned something new today!

Lola said...

SM. Yep. Brexit is an EU problem, not a UK one. It's an EU problem because:-
They lose a shed load of money.
They lose 'control'.
It encourages les autres
Future tax competition (a very good thing) threatens their revenue
De-regulation by the UK - speaks for itself.
The EU member states that lose out on UK trade opportunities will get very cross with the EU.
Ireland may well decide to Irexit, although support is currently low and there are other issues https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2018/05/09/news/survey-show-support-for-irexit-remains-muted-in-the-republic-1324715/
They lose our contingent guarantees to the EU banking system (a bck door Euro bail our mechanism)

And so on..

Shiney said...

@everyone

All good points.

So, why haven't we just told them to f**k off, why aren't the MSM reporting any of this, why aren't the ERG trumpeting this stuff etc, etc, etc, etc

Staffordshire man said...

@Shiney, why indeed. I just want to play poker with TM and her gang, they can even choose their cards and I would still win.

Bayard said...

Shiney

"So, why haven't we just told them to f**k off,"

Because politicians are "all in this together". They don't tell each other to f*ck off, that's reserved for non-politicians.

"why aren't the MSM reporting any of this"

Because ever since the Guardian got done over for stepping out of line, the MSM have taken the easy, government approved line. Lok at the Skripal saga.

"why aren't the ERG trumpeting this stuff etc, etc, etc, etc."

Because that's not part of the carefully choreographed game that is Brexit at Westminster. The name of the game is saving the Tory party, sod the EU and sod the UK. The ERG are just as keen to save the Tory party as May and her sorry government crew.


Physiocrat said...

Hopefully the UK will do nothing to restrict imports from the EU. With luck, it does not even have the resources to start checking and applying import tariffs, so it is not EU producers who will suffer. It would be very silly to do anything to put up the price of Kerrygold butter.

The real pain will come because UK goods and services will become more expensive or unobtainable in the EU after Brexit. Europeans are not buy UK products as an act of charity or because they feel sorry for the silly Brits, but because the products are wanted or needed. That is where the pain will come.

L fairfax said...

"The Irish economy could be around 4% smaller in the event of a no-deal Brexit, "
Not our problem

Staffordshire man said...

@Physiocrat: So you believe that we should accept punitive tariffs on exports with no response? I'd like to play poker with you too.

Yo do realize that we could buy stuff (often more cheaply) from outside the EU and that we can respond with tariffs on, say, 100 items that would inflict real pain over here (Brussels). Of course it would be better if we could all be grown up and just trade but for the EU it was never about trade it's about political union, I fear for the health of Guy Verhofstadt, he is so excited at the moment.

Eighty per cent of Belgian companies are not ready to cope with post-brexit trade, and that is not a figure plucked out of the air, it was reported last week in Flemish newspapers.

Ireland is being allowed (encouraged) to punch above it's weight, not only are we their biggest market but their second market is serviced by moving goods through a third country; guess which one.

Lola said...

@Physiocrat

People buy stuff because they think it adds value. And that it is competitively priced. In the event that UK made cars (say) have 10% import duty added there are several things to note.
1. This duty will be paid by European citizens. By definition it is designed to keep car prices higher than they need be to protect Audi, BMW, Merc etc.
2. By being out of the EU we can engage in 'tax competition'. Scrapping Corp. Tax. would be a good start. Car makers here might then be able to reduce their wholesale prices negating the tariff.
3. I fully expect Sterling to decline in value vis a vis the Euro. Temporarily. This, as it is supposed to under the 'specie flow mechanism' (a old fashioned concept to do with the gold standard that still applies under fiat money) will make our exports to the EU more competitive.
4. At the same time as (3) and (4) are helping us they are hurting BMW, Merc, Audi etc.
5. The Germans, unlike the French, are not as jingoistic about car buying as you might think.
6. The supply chain stuff problems balance out. GKN Powertain stuff will be cheaper in the EU, but it will cost Jaguar say, more to buy ZF gearboxes.
7. And that brings me on to substitution. It would not take much price differences to make it worthwhile for Jag (say) to start buying Jatco auto boxes. Or work again with Ford/Mazda.

The only problem we will have is if the EU gets vindictive and pretends that we owe them money and refuses to allow us access to the SM. At which point we go to war in the WTO. And ask them for our share of all the EU assets we've paid for.

L fairfax said...

@Lola

If the EU owes us money shouldn't they be able to point to a contract we signed saying we would pay lots of money if we leave.
When Croatia and Slovenia declared independence from Yugoslavia the EU didn't call for them to pay money to Yugoslavia.
(In fact this has never happened in history).

Bayard said...

Lola,
Agreed with all that, but it would require our government to act sensibly. When was the last time that happened in any sustained manner?

Lola said...

LF. Yes. We should and have said we would honour our contracts. But that is entireky different from continuing to pay subs to a club we have left. If the EU wants too play silly buggers about that we can demand our share of the value of all the EU assets we've helped pay for.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B: " ever since the Guardian got done over for stepping out of line"

Can you tell us which incident you mean?