Tuesday 3 February 2009

Bubble? Which bubble?

From The Telegraph:

Figures released on Monday from index provider IPD show how five years of debt-fuelled gains [in commercial properties] which peaked in July 2007 – exactly the same month as the debt crisis first emerged – have been wiped out in just 18 months.

In capital terms the retail property market is back to 2002, industrial property is back to 1999, while the office market has wound the clock all back to 1998.

For a glimpse of just how far the market sailed from fundamental value look no further than rental values. In the seven years that capital values rose and fell 35pc, rental values rose just 13pc before falling back 2pc. The shallow rise and fall in rental values shows how little the market boom had to do with the underlying economy and how much it had to do with the availability of debt finance.


Exactly, it's as simple as that.

The relationship between business profitability and commercial rents is pretty stable; as is that between earnings and residential rents. The supposed rise in capital values was purely down to easy credit, it was pure bubble, something that would be largely prevented if Business Rates (and other property-related taxes) were replaced with a flat tax on capital values in excess of the bricks and mortar value, points 13 and 14 here.

H/t wdbeast at HPC.

13 comments:

John B said...

Hmm. With rents up 11% and capital up 0%, sounds like it might now be the right time to invest in offices again...?

Mark Wadsworth said...

JB, you're the expert here, not me, but to really make money in property...

1. You need leverage, which you won't get any more.

2. Investing in REITS etc, once they bottom out, is probably a good idea.

3. The FT Property sector index is down by half from its peak and below 2003 levels. But think about it, they are far more burdened with debt that six years ago, so it is possible they have further to fall.

4. Once REITS etc are at rock bottom, their gearing will be enormous, possibly 100%, that's the time to buy. Question is, dive in now or wait a bit?

Mark Wadsworth said...

Scratch "by half". The index is down three-quarters, actually.

CityUnslicker said...

nearly the time to buy property - another 6 months should be the bottom. When some yields on commercial property go to over 12% then is the time to buy.

I fancy a nice office block rented to HM Gov myself. Sadly you can only get 60% lev now to 40% equity which is a bit of a pain.

Fnacy going halves Mark?

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, give me a call when yields have risen to 12% and I'm in.

As the old saying goes, don't buy shares in a railroad company until it's gone bankrupt three times. Applied to REITS, wait until existing shareholders have been diluted down by debt-for-equity swaps enforced by the banks at least twice and then buy shares in those - you get your high gearing thrown in for free.

Lola said...

CU (depite my other response re fund management charges above) - agreed. Count me in too. If commercial propertry yields get to 12% AND the underlying covenants are good I'm in too.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Chaps, careful here!

If you buy a commercial property with 60% gearing and 4% SDLT, you have given away ten per cent of your investment on Day One. REITS shares must be the way forward, you lose 0.5% of your investment via Stamp Duty but that's as can't be helped.

Pogo said...

It hasn't stopped Birmingham City Council from putting an acquaintance of mine out of business by raising his rent by 60%...

Mark Wadsworth said...

P, more fool them, but it's not just councils who are that stupid.

If you look at Woolworth's accounts, if the landlords had been prepared to take a 50% rent cut, then Woolworth's might have struggled through. As it is, 27,000 people are unemployed, shareholders have lost the lot and their landlords are getting nothing.

Pogo said...

Pragmatism seems to have fallen out of favour... :-(

AntiCitizenOne said...

I'm not buying commerical property.

1/ The internet means less demand for offices.
2/ You can meet in numerous pubs/coffee places and have a business meeting!
3/ Rents have to fall a lot.

Mark Wadsworth said...

AC1,
1/ How come so many people still work in offices?
2/ Then buy a pub or a café.
3/ Rents may well fall, but capital prices will fall much faster.

AntiCitizenOne said...

1/ They'll be a lot less of them, and demand works at the margin.
2/ Already oversupply. Hence the need to offer space for meetings.
3/ True. But will rents cover the debt funding costs?