Wednesday, 25 May 2016

Nobody move or your holidays get it!

From BBC Reality Check:

Claim: Leaving the EU would make an average holiday for four people to the EU £230 more expensive in two years.

Reality Check verdict: It would be reasonable to expect a weaker pound to make foreign holidays more expensive, but it is hard to predict a precise figure.

We do not whether and by how much GBP would fall (or rise) relative to EUR post-Brexit, if it were to fall, then yes, the GBP price of holidays in the Euro-zone would go up slightly. Big deal. The amount you spend on a holiday is a fairly arbitrary figure, you can always go self-catering instead of full board; or camping instead of a hotel; or eat McDonalds not a four-course with wine; go for a walk or to a museum instead of to a theme park etc. Over the years, GBP has been a lot lower relative to EUR than it is now, and people still went.

But exchange rates are just one factor in the price of holidays.

As we well know, resorts set prices according to demand, and it is significantly cheaper during term time than during school holidays, so we could more than alleviate this perceived problem by having more flexible term times, i.e. having school holidays at a time when most other European countries don't.

Which brings us to this article from The Daily Mail:

Tourists are facing a shortage of sunshine holiday spots this year as British families turn their backs on previously popular destinations.

Travel agents say that thousands have switched to ‘safe haven’ resorts such as Spain, Portugal and Italy – apparently in response to terror attacks elsewhere.

However, there are simply too few hotels, apartments and villas to cope with the surge in demand. Even if people can find a holiday in Spain, analysts suggest they are paying a ‘safety premium’ of up to 20 per cent compared to destinations including Tunisia and Turkey.

Surely this will also push up prices and by considerably more than fluctuations in exchange rates?


Bayard said...

"Surely this will also push up prices and by considerably more than fluctuations in exchange rates?"

Ah, but can it be blamed on Brexit? If not it is not really worthy of mention.

Dinero said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dinero said...

If it was the case that the UK was not an EU member in the future then the Economy of the UK would be a totally different one to the Economy as it is now, and so it is dubious that pontifications extrapolating from the current Economy are warranted.

James Higham said...

Last holiday I had abroad was 2008, no plans either.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, true.

Din, that is correct, but involves actually thinking about what you are saying. Project Fear assumes that people take everything at face value with nary a thought.

JH, exactly, it's very discretionary spending.

Striebs said...

Typical BBC middle class remoteness - assuming normal people can afford a holiday or if self employed can even take the time off .

They probably think we all have defined benefit pensions guaranteed by other people too .