Interesting business proposition from the Middle East

From the FT:

Syria's top rebel commander is seeking western backing to create a military unit to take control of oilfields controlled by al-Qaeda-linked extremists and other rebels, as lucrative natural resources captured from the regime stoke tension between rival factions...

General Selim Idriss, the western-backed head of the Supreme Military Council, told the Financial Times he wanted to assemble a 30,000-strong force of military defectors to secure oilfields, grain silos and cotton stocks, as well as crossing points on the Turkish and Iraqi borders.

From the numbers given in this and an accompanying article, here's the offer on the table:

The general is asking for $40 million a month (call it $0.5 billion for the first year), he will use this to employ 40,000 or so mercenaries-cum-young, motivated and idealistic patriots, each paid $100 a month (leaving 90% of the budget for weapons and his profit margin), and hopefully within a year or so, he'll have his hands on the oil wells and about $1 or $2 billion's worth of oil exports per annum.

I can imagine that this will be tricky from a negotiating and legal point of view. It is quite likely that some other generals will be seeking other investors on more favourable terms etc, so the likelihood of:

- your chosen candidate succeeding; and
- him not being assassinated; and
- him actually being clever enough to stay in power; and
- him actually being honest enough to repay your investment instead of disappearing with the money; and
- the oil wells not being promptly renationalised;

is very small indeed, but it must be worth a punt if you have $500 million to spare.