Things that people say that aren't true

TheFatBigot opined here:

Buying a higher quality of stuff, be it housing or anything else, is an obvious consequence of increased income. But even then, once a home has been bought that is suitable to current (and anticipated future) needs and of a quality that is thought acceptable to someone of a certain income, there is little likelihood of change unless circumstances alter radically.

When it comes to stuff other than housing it is rather different, not least because the cost of dumping what you have and getting something better is so much less.

And we should never exclude or denigrate the emotional attachment people have to their homes. It has an effect on their willingness to move and, for those with such an attachment, makes housing anything other than normal goods.

*ahem*

While anecdotal evidence and people's impressions are relevant (for example, after my parents got married they owned/occupied the same house for thirty years before they moved; whether or not they will move again in their lifetimes is an unknown), let's look at actual real-life figures:

According to HM Revenue & Customs statistics on residential property transactions (Excel), there were 6,181,000 purchases/sales in the five years August 2005 to July 2010. That's an average of 1,236,000 purchases/sales per year; and according to NSO statistics on housing tenure (pdf), in 2000-01 there were 20,342,000 privately owned homes in the UK*.

Therefore average turnover is about 1,236,000 ÷ 20,342,000 = 6% of total stock per year**. If we assume that an average housing 'career' is about fifty years (from being a first time buyer to shuffling off this mortal coil), the average number of homes owned/occupied by any individual during his or her lifetime (whether jointly or solely) will be 50 years x 6% per year = 3.

In other words, on average, people in the UK will have owned/occupied three properties in their lifetimes; they start by buying a flat; then they buy a house when they get married and children are on the way; half of marriages end in divorce***; people move abroad**** and come back; people move because of their jobs or to trade up or down; people lose their jobs and have to sell up because they can't afford mortgage repayments; people buy themselves retirement homes in the countryside or at the seaside etc etc.

The figure looks perfectly plausible to me (I'm in my forties, I'm on my second marriage and have so far owned/occupied three houses and one flat, for example, as well as the five places where I've been a tenant since I left home at 18).

*/ahem*

* (27 + 41 + 7 + 3)% x 24,838,000 = 19,374,000 GB, plus 5% for Northern Ireland = 20,342,000.

** The sales figures might include social housing, which is occasionally transferred from one branch of government to another; but they exclude sales under £40,000 so let's assume the net effect of these two adjustments would be nil, for sake of argument.

A further possible adjustment is the fact that the 1,236,000 figure includes sales of new builds of about 200,000 per year. If these were all sold to first time buyers, then the turnover figure might be only 5% (1,036,000 ÷ 20,342,000) but there is no evidence to suggest that is the case. My parents' first house was second hand but they bought their current house brand new, for example.

*** There are about 150,000 divorces per year in the UK.

**** About 300,000 people emigrate from the UK each year, which is at least 150,000 households.