Thursday 23 September 2010

I'm surprised people still fall for this New Labour clap trap

Rather surprisingly, a Tory sympathiser over at HPC said this:

Check the numbers Mark - yes, spending under Labour continued to climb steadily, despite the recession; but the sudden and dramatic budget deficit was largely down to an implosion in tax receipts, well in excess of the amount you would expect; were the collection of tax revenues proportionate to GDP.

I always check the numbers before I say anything, but just for clarity, total tax revenues according to the Public Sector Finances Databank (Excel, Tab C4) were as follows:
2007-08 £516.0 billion
2008-09 £508.0 billion
2009-10 £479.7 billion

That's a reduction of seven per cent over two years. Out of that £36.3 billion fall in revenues, nearly half relates to the fall in corporation tax receipts of £10.6 billion (a fall of 22%, i.e. the amount that banks used to pay) and the fall in Stamp Duty Land Tax receipts of £6.2 billion (a fall of 44%, which is what you'd expect if the number of property transactions falls by nearly half).

According to The Guardian, GDP fell by six and a half per cent in the first year of the recession and has barely picked up since, so the fall in tax revenues was more or less exactly proportional to the fall in GDP.

So the idea that the £150 billion-odd annual deficits they are running is all down to the recession is nonsense (OK, stick on £5 or £10 billion for additional unemployment benefits if you really must) and I'd say that tax revenues held up surprisingly well.

1 comments:

James Higham said...

And people still believe that ascribing to other factors bullsh they go on with.