Friday 28 May 2010

Policy based evidence

From the BBC:

Toxicology tests have shown that two teenagers whose deaths were linked to mephedrone had not taken the drug. The deaths of Louis Wainwright, 18, and Nicholas Smith, 19, in March 2010 sparked concern about the synthetic stimulant, which was then legal. The Labour government banned the so-called "legal high" in April, making it a Class B drug alongside amphetamines and cannabis...

Yup, that's right folks. It's not just that they couldn't "prove" that mephedrone was the cause of death, these two hadn't even taken it. The article goes on to say:

Mephedrone has been implicated in the deaths of 34 people in the UK - 26 in England and eight in Scotland. But so far, the drug has been established as a cause of death in only one case in England, that of John Stirling Smith.

Whereby "implicated" means, er, what, exactly? Further, the ratio of English-to-Scottish cases looks out of whack, seeing as the population of Scotland is only a tenth of that of England. Are there really three times as many drug-users in Scotland per capita or is there merely three times as much "implicating" going on? And finally, with such a small sample size, how on earth can you "establish" anything at all?

8 comments:

Dick Puddlecote said...

It's also incontrovertible proof that politicians now base their decisions on hysteria rather than calm investigation.

The less panic-stricken in society have known that for a while, so it's nice to see our standpoint vindicated. ;-)

James Higham said...

Are there really three times as many drug-users in Scotland per capita?

Bears thinking about.

Bill Quango MP said...

Does this mean its OK to buy Miracle-Gro from B&Q again?

Mark Wadsworth said...

DP, we've always known that - but what about 'the precautionary principle', eh? It's for our own good, and all that. Better safe than sorry.

JH, of course there aren't. It's just than bansturbation in Scotland is even more rampant that in England (if that's possible).

BQ, I must admit, it is still not clear to me whether the phrase 'plant food' actually describes the substance, or whether it is slang like 'shit' or 'junk' or 'speed' which is just a word or phrase chosen at random that bears no relation to the substance itself.

dearieme said...

Death by Mars Bar is so common in Scotland that there's little room for death by drugs.

Anonymous said...

Are there really three times as many drug-users in Scotland per capita?

According tothis the figure for Scotland are lower than for England.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Anon, excellent find. Although those findings probably aren't true either.

Ross said...

Anon- Yeah but in Scotland they deep fry the mephedrone which makes it more dangerous.