Another little mystery solved

As I said after The Budget:

What I'll have to look into is how a 3.5% fall in GDP (which inevitably leads to a fall in tax revenues) can possibly lead to a 10% budget deficit (assuming level spending)? Even at a marginal tax rate of 100%, a 3.5% fall in GDP would only lead to a 3.5% deficit. Hmm.

Thankfully, the chaps at Policy Exchange (pdf) have pinned it down:

Only a third of the ... surge in spending is the result of the recession – most simply reflects a choice to increase Government consumption spending. Between 2007/8 and 2010/11 spending is forecast to rise by £119 billion. But little more than a third (38%) of this increase in spending reflects the costs of the recession – like rising social security bills, and higher debt interest.

Policy Exchange rather generously assumed assumed that the increase in spending at DWP all relates to actual cash benefits paid out. Yeah, right. Now, call me a Communist, but IMHO we can't let people in this country starve to death - but that only means cash benefits paid to people without incomes, not paying for shit like this, courtesy of fakecharity IPPR (pdf):

PA innovation Hub Seminar 2 - The emerging adviser role in employment and skills Tuesday June 23rd

Following the publication of ippr's pamphlet Now It's Personal: Personal Advisers and the new public service workforce, due to be published on the 17 June, this seminar will look at the relationships between welfare to work providers and skills and training providers. Set in the wider context of the integrated employment and skills agenda, issues explored will include how the creation of the Adult Advancement and Careers Service and the replacement of the LSC with the Skills Funding Agency will impact on the role of the Personal Advisers. In particular it will focus on the how this will affect their ability to support the customer journey.

A key question to be examined will be how Personal Advisers can be better supported to make appropriate referrals and improve their understanding of support available. We will examine the role that cross-organisational skills and knowledge sharing could play, opportunities for secondments and work shadowing, as well as discussing different approaches taken by a range of different organisations and frontline staff.

Speakers include:
Graeme Caul, West London Working (West London City Strategy Pathfinder) TBC
Sara Dewson, Institute for Employment Studies
Paul Sheppard, Bemerton Villages TMO (Islington LSC network prototype)

This seminar is for welfare to work providers, training and skills providers, and Personal Advisers and other frontline staff...