Tuesday, 6 January 2009

Fionnuala Earley's Time Travel Adventures (4)

From Nationwide's December house price survey:

"The price of a typical house is now £153,048, around the same level as of [sic] spring 2005, but still over £17,500 more than five years ago."

From the November survey:

"The price of a typical house is now £158,442. This is about £25,000 less than this time last year but is still about £25,000 higher than in November 2003."

From the March survey:

"The price of a typical house in the UK is now £179,110, only £2,027 more than this time last year. However, prices are still 11% higher than two years ago and 47% higher than five years ago - the equivalent of a price rise of more than £30 per day for the last five years [that's £10 a day at using current figures]".

*ahem*

Prices are down 18% from their peak in August 2007, so one year's falls have wiped out the previous two and a half years' gains. By the end of this year, even the 2003 comparative will probably be showing an overall loss.

*/ahem*

UPDATE: Assuming prices fall by a (conservative) one per cent a month for the next four months, the five year comparative will be negative, or at best flat.

5 comments:

Lola said...

'Prices are down 18% from their peak in August 2007, so one year's falls have wiped out the previous two and a half years' gains. By the end of this year, even the 2003 comparative will probably be showing an overall loss' - Good.

Anonymous said...

"By the end of this year, even the 2003 comparative will probably be showing an overall loss."

I was thinking they'd fall to 2002/3 levels before they started rising again. I think maybe they could get down to 2001 levels (especially if they overshoot).

Mark Wadsworth said...

TA, "Back to 2002 levels" is a good bet, because they went from £95k to £115k in that year, giving yourself a nice big target of a fall between 40% and 50%.

Nick von Mises said...

Can't you write a macro that automatically updates her time travel sentence each time the numbers are published? Then she'll be able to retire and spend her time making tea and scones.

I don't think the Joke Economist community will miss her.

AntiCitizenOne said...

At current the rate of rise in housing affordability when will the 2001 figure be hit?