Monday, 5 January 2009

Those Tory 'tax cuts'

The Tories' vote-buying initiatives of today stink on three levels. Tax cuts and spending reductions ought to go hand in hand, that much at least they have understood, but ...

1. There is the wider point that interest rates should be of no concern to politicians - whether the market interest rate for savings is perceived to be low or high. This whole "'we have to do something for savers" propaganda is a tacit admission that the Bank of England's Montary Policy Committe (political appointees to the last man and woman) is not in the slightest bit independent. IMHO, politicians (and their stooges) shouldn't be setting interest rates or dictating to the banks how much they should lend and to whom any more than they should be setting exchange rates; deciding quotas and tarrifs or setting minimum or maximum wages or prices or interfering in the free markets any more than is absolutely necessary (i.e. intellectual property laws).

2. It is ruthless vote buying. They've pencilled in the 'cost' of the tax break at £4 billion. Fine. They know that there are statistically twice as many 'savers' as 'borrowers', let's say twenty million of the former, ten million of the latter and ten million who are neither/nor. A £200 average bung per 'saver' probably guarantees more votes than a £400 bung per 'borrower'. Besides the fact that the government taxes and spends far too much, the most sickening things about our tax system are the vast disparity in effective marginal rates - with 'savers' paying the lowest rates (which ought to rule out cutting that particular rate any further) - and the ludicrously low personal allowance. How about using that £4 billion to raise the personal allowance by £300, saving every taxpayer £100? It's just not spectacular enough to win many votes, is it?

3. But the very worst (and most terrifying) thing of all is that the Tories don't fight back when our Nulab government - as expected - starts wailing that:

The truth is the Conservatives are returning to the worst of Thatcherism in the early eighties with no support for jobs or the economy and cuts in public services as well. The Conservatives are repeating their mistakes of the past: if a timely fiscal stimulus of similar scale had been applied at the beginning of the 1990s recession, around 300,000 fewer jobs might not have been lost.

All the Tories would have to do is point out a few salient facts, such as, er, "£4 billion sounds like a lot, but in is fact considerably less than one per cent of total government spending", or perhaps "£4 billion is less than a quarter of the average annual increase in public spending over the last nine years" or even "While we accept that Labour have increased the number of teachers, nurses, doctors and policeman by about 300,000 since 1997, they have also swollen the public sector by a further 1.5 million non-jobs at an annual cost to the taxpayer of at least £50 billion".

But the Tories don't of course, I can only assume because they are in on the whole scam.

11 comments:

John Pickworth said...

"... But the Tories don't of course, I can only assume because they are in on the whole scam"

Or they're even smarter than we give them credit for and are hoping for a Labour fourth term. I know if I were their position (facing having to sort out Labour's ruination of the country) I'd be introducing 'baby eating' policies before the next election.

marksany said...

It's just possible that a lot of the diversity outreach workers are potential Tory voters in marginal seats and Dave doesn't want to drive them too firmly into Gordo's arms.

Nick Drew said...

All the Tories would have to do...

or point out it will come out of NuLab's public spending increases, and turn the question around: do NuLab say it is pensioners with a small amount of savings that should be paying for the 'fiscal stimulus' ??

Letters From A Tory said...

Mandelson and Brown have made damn sure that the independence of the Bank of England was shattered several months ago.

Lola said...

Fundamentally the sure fire way to sort this recession in double quick time is to cut taxes. Preferably taxes on private business and income. (I realise that that is simplistic).

At the moment the Tories - in fact all of the righty parties - are having difficulty finding the language and the air time to counter the nonsensical and immoral Brownian economic mantras like 'unfunded tax cuts' and 'government services'.

What Dave is doing is trying to find this language to move the debate and the angenda on to this ground and then move into 'cut government spending'. Anyway that's what I - somewhat charitably - think he is doing.

It is very difficult inded to counter in rational argument someone who just downright lies and has no morality, like Brown. Especially where that person can marshall all the forces of State propaganda to assist his deceits.

Overall about 55% of the electorate really still don't get it. They cannot (will not?) get their heads round 'tax cuts = prosperity and wealth creation for EVERYONE'.

Dave, and all the righty parties/commentaters etc need to work hard on this. So although I agree that Dave's savers saver tax is not really much good, it is a brick out of the wall of Brown's immoral deceitful leadership.

PS What my elderly prudent modestly invested clients need is the return of the dividend rebate for non taxpayers. This would both directly boost their income and indirectly lead to an incease in equity prices. So, Dave, please also announce that you will retsore the social contract to pensioners that holds that pensions are deferred pay and should be exempt from income and capital taxes until the benefits are drawn.

Mark Wadsworth said...

JP, I am sure that the Tories threw the last election for that reason (they didn't want the crash to happen on their watch), but fixing a mess isn't actually that difficult - if all else fails, you just blame everything on the previous government.

LFAT "several months ago"?

"Eleven and a half years ago", surely?

Snafu said...

If savings rates do fall to 0.1%, the Government will lose the £4bn of tax revenue on the savings anyway!

What savings rate has this £4bn calculation been based on?

Snafu said...

PS When did you last hear Gordon Brown proclaim that one of his greatest achievements as Chancellor was to give the Bank of England it's independence!?!

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, good point. £4 billion seems 'about right' from memory, but that's assuming normal savings rates of 5% or so.

AntiCitizenOne said...

First thing to do is promise a citizens dividend.

People like having an income, and they'll start looking at cuts in the extortion funded sector to raise their dividend...

Politically Numb said...

Good stuff Mark

Great piece on Newsnight last night about this calling it that this is all about being seen to 'do something, anything'.

A few hundred quid in the bank for pensioners looks as effective as the VAT cut for stimulating growth; "Wow, it's a 2.5% sale!!!"