Saturday 11 October 2008

JPY to AUD exchange rates since 1994

I have read many a time that Japanese savers, faced with derisory interest rates, preferred to invest in high-yielding currencies, in particular the Australian dollar. Some went one step further and borrowed JPY at negligible interest rates and invested the proceeds in AUD (aka 'the carry trade').

As the chart* for the last fifteen years shows, for the last eight years this was a fantastic strategy; not only were they earning much more in interest, but AUD was increasing in value against JPY by about 7.5% a year (+1.075^8=1.8). This strategy is now unravelling rapidly; the fall in AUD relative to JPY over the past few weeks was sufficient to wipe out the entire exchange rate gains of all those who moved into AUD since 2001:

There seems to be pretty solid resistance at the level of AUD 1.60 per JPY 100, apart from a couple of spikes in 2000 and 2001. Maybe that's the level to start swapping from JPY back into AUD again?

Just sayin', is all.

* For avoidance of doubt, the chart shows the cost of JPY100 expressed in terms of AUD - a downward slope is good for people invested in AUD and vice versa.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dearieshe thinks that we should buy some Aussie dollars. But, say I, wouldn't we better off with some Aussie Semillon and Shiraz?

Mark Wadsworth said...

You could go 50/50.