Monday, 21 April 2008

What a difference a week makes ...

FT 14 April: "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world’s biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand."

FT 21 April: " ...from 2004 the Moscow government changed its tax regime and began to take over privately held assets ...As a result of these and other policies, average production growth in Russia has slowed to 2.5 per cent from a high point of 12 per cent in 2003. The problem has become so severe that Russian politicians and energy executives fear that this year the world's second biggest exporter may see its first decline in 10 years ...Another problem is access to new fields, which is limited by a new law to companies with more than 51 per cent Russian participation. The process of handing out licences for these fields has been delayed for years while the state determines how many of them are to be considered "strategic"."


Anonymous said...

The two statements are not incompatible, still less contradictory.

The second one is the cause of the first one.

A new peak will not be reached until (unless?) Putin's heavies back off and let the oil companies run their business.

Michael Cook said...

I rather suspect, my anonymous friend, that that was the point of the article.