Saturday, 29 March 2008

There is more of everything in densely populated areas

The Remittance Man does a fine job of laying into this pile of shite, as meekly regurgitated in The Daily Telegraph.

From the 'No shit Sherlock' department comes the following ...

"... researchers counted the number of takeaways near schools in each local authority area. In areas such as Rutland and Windsor there were just over 10 fast food outlets per secondary school. But in Brighton there were 46 - twice the national average of 23. Blackpool and Hull were joint second* with 40 ... There are more than 82 fast food outlets for every secondary school in the London borough of Westminster, and 47 in Kensington and Chelsea."

Assuming that 'near schools' means 'within a few minutes walking distance', it is safe to assume that there is more of just about anything within walking distance of any random point in a densely populated area than in a rural area (except sheep and cows and so on).

Hmm.

Method One

Let's list those areas by ascending number of takeaways per school and look at their population densities per the 2001 census ....

Rutland "the most rural area in England & Wales"
Windsor - population density 44.17 people/hectare **
Blackpool - pop. density 46.02 people/hectare
Kingston-upon-Hull - pop. density 37.47 people/hectare
Brighton - pop. density 65.6 people/hectare
Kensington & Chelsea - pop. density 128.39 people/hectare
Westminster - pop. density 82.32 people/hectare

So it's not a perfect correlation, but if we further adjust the figures for areas with a lot of tourists/visitors, where you'd expect more takeaways; for seaside areas, where you'd expect more fish'n'chip shops (bracing sea air and you can get it fresh); and John Prescott (hence the relatively large number of fast food outlets in Hull), you could get pretty close.

Method Two

We could just look at total population. The mythical village of Emmerdale may well have 100 inhabitants per hectare, but there sure as hell aren't many takeaways. Let's list those areas in ascending order again and see if there is a correlation with total population per the same census:
Rutland - not listed
Windsor - population 30,568
Blackpool - pop. 142,283
Kingston-upon-Hull - pop. 301,416
Brighton - pop. 134,293
Kensington & Chelsea - pop. 158,439
Westminster - pop. 181,766

So that's not perfect either - as a rough guide, the number of takeaways per school is roughly population divided by 3.3 - Hull is a downwards blip this time, but we are getting closer.

* Joint second after Brighton. And Westminster. And Kensington & Chelsea, so technically that's joint fourth, only I do not know what level of reality we are operating on here.

** A hectare is some newfangled thing that's about two-and-a-half times as big as an acre, which in turn is about the size of a football pitch. Besides, have you ever been to Windsor, FFS? It's all Ye Olde Teashoppes and antique shops, ladies' milliners and funeral directors.

6 comments:

The Remittance Man said...

The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea is a single entity, if that helps, a bit like the old county of "Hereford and Worcester".

One can't help but womder whether two "toff" boroughs weren't merged so that only one would exist. Gerrymandering, I think the term is called - apparently it's very popular with the likes of Mugabe.

Mark Wadsworth said...

If you split K&C up again, that would make Blackpool and Hull joint fifth.

Sutan Pendak said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sutan Pendak said...

If State Schools promoted ideas like 'free will' and 'personal responsibility', instead of 'human rights' and 'your all capitalist pigs', like the new TDA ad, then you dont have to worry about kids becoming obese sheep.

The Pedant-General said...

Mark,

Ahem. Slowish Friday pm and rather late to the fray, but I get an r squared of 88% when I use both variables in a multiple regression.

Significantly, it's population density that really matters - remove this and the r sq falls sharply.

Can I have a govt grant now?

Mark Wadsworth said...

Cool. Did you use a spreadsheet to work this out? And no, you can;t have a grant because you've already done the work. And I'm not in power yet anyway.