My radio-alarm clock is set to Radio 4, which I listen to as I drift back into consciousness. This morning, they quoted from a Guardian editorial, which seemed so far-fetched that I wasn't sure I hadn't imagined it.
Nope.They actually said this about a possible second Scottish indyref:
The choice facing voters in an independence referendum can be framed as one between the certain economic catastrophe of crashing out of the EU and the uncertain consequences of leaving the UK.
As is well known, Scotland's economic links with the rest of the UK outweigh Scotland's links with the rest of the EU by about four-to-one. By economic links I mean, cross-border investment, imports-exports, jobs and so on,
So whatever the disruption is when* the UK leaves the EU, it would be four times as bad for Scotland if they left the UK and tried to rejoin the EU.
* It's a great feeling finally being able to say "when" instead of "if".
Tuesday, 14 March 2017
Guardian making itself look a bit silly (as per usual).
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14 comments:
It's the other way round, isn't it. But if you want Scotland to leave**, then getting this narrative into their minds may be the way to go.
I despise the racists and idiots who have no idea what EU immigration actually is (though H-O-ists are even worse), but their votes were needed to win the EU referendum.
**I don't really care but I think more countries is a Good Thing, so I do support it as well as movements like Texas independence and the breakup of Russia into its 83(85) constituents.
C, what's the wrong way round?
Scotland leaving the UK is more likely to be a complete economic catastrophe whereas the UK leaving the EU has less certain consequences.
And Scotland's departure would cement the dominance of both the EU-sceptics and the Tory party in the rest of the country.
@MW
But all that's left of the UK(England and Wales) will have no tariffs (according to hippy lets-all-dance-in-the-sunshine madcaps) so there's no problem for Scots with trade in that direction. Meanwhile the UK becomes a terminal victim of undercutting by cheap foreign labour and collapses into Trump-like squealing about where has all the industry gone.
Sturgeon appears to be the only half-educated adult on the scene.In the event I want the border with Scotland to extend south of Northampton.
If you want an economic catastrophe then Scotland leaving the UK and having a guaranteed budget deficit of 10% of GDP on day 1 is certainly just that, regardless of whether they are allowed to rejoin the EU immediately. And rejoining the EU would mean joining the Euro, which in turn would mean some sort of Greek style package of emergency loans, public spending cuts and tax rises to get the budget deficit down.
Personally all of that seems about as likely Shergar winning this years Grand National, and as appetising prospect for the Scottish people as a double sh*t sandwich, but hey if thats what they want who are we south of the border to complain? It would mean a massive tax revenue boost to the rUK, as the Scottish deficit would be someone else's problem. It would be as big a boost to the UK Treasury as leaving the EU will be. It could halve our budget deficit overnight.
@Sobers: And when NI finally joins Eire...
"It would be as big a boost to the UK Treasury as leaving the EU will be" Sobers
Net deficit with EU about £8.5bn. We have to [or will anyway] subsidise Farmers [£3bn], Motor Industry [Nissan done], Big Pharma and a host of others now forming a disorderly queue. So no boost at all then.
C,yes of course
S, probably
DBC, no
S, good points.
S, don't go there!
PC, nope.
@DBCR
There you go again... remember its imports that make us richer. No, really, it is. And if we allow free trade with IndyScots we'll be giving a backward, third-world banana-republic a leg up to 21st century prosperity :wink: like all the others we'll be able to trade with once we've got the fascists in the EU out of the way.
As far as matters Europe are concerned, the Graun is worse than the Fail, except the other way round.
ISTM that the Scots Nats are trying to break away from the UK before the UK leaves Europe, so that they can apply to stay in Europe when the rUK (or will that be the rGB?) leaves, rather than having to apply to rejoin after they've been carried out along with the rest of the UK.
@Bayard: Which Mail? Dacre's daily (anti-EU, anti-Scottish independence) or Greig's Sunday edition (pro both)?
Interesting experience watching well-off Anarchists destroying the British Welfare State which was supported by Keynesian monetary controls and then a single market providing protection from cheap labour competition.
@S Imports only make the country better off if there is the effectual demand to pay for them. If there is widespread unemployment, people can hardly pay for imports.The old fashioned, non- anarchist, approach was to try to raise demand so it equalled the amount of goods produced in a country or more ambitiously to realise all the potential supply contained in all the under-used, or slow running, capital equipment etc , but this is now far too difficult for our ruling class and its apologists. Bring back Macmillan! (So speaks a true Socialist!)
S, the former.
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