Showing posts with label MMT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MMT. Show all posts

Monday, 10 October 2022

Modern Monetary Theory - Kwasi but twue

The MMT view of things is perfectly simple and covers the taxation/funding side as well as the spending side.

1. When the government spends money, it is printing or creating money. It does not need to 'borrow' money to spend, either there will be more coins and notes in circulation or more Treasury Bonds (or their digital equivalents). These are just two types of the same thing. Cash is liquid and non-interest bearing, bonds are less liquid and interest bearing. But both are just numbers on bits of metal, paper or in an electronic register somewhere, issued and backed by the self-same government.

2. When the government collects taxes, it is unprinting or destroying money. The purpose of this is to create demand for the currency (primary aim) and hence avoid inflation and keep interest rates down (outcomes). It is broadly agreed that that low inflation and interest rates are A Good Thing.

Some MMT supporters look at the first part, the spending/printing side and say, "Oh well, that means that the government doesn't need to borrow money or collect taxes to be able to spend", which is to completely ignore the second part. These people are moving the debate backwards and discrediting MMT, which is not a policy recommendation, it is a simple description of how things work.

The recent Truss/Kwarteng foray into cutting taxes was a bad idea politically (it would have increased inequality) but the financial markets don't care about that, they care about the second part. Unfunded tax cuts reduce demand for a currency and hence lead to the currency weakening relative to other currencies; hence imported price inflation; as well as higher domestic inflation (more money sloshing about chasing the same amount of goods and services); and higher interest rates (to compensate for future expected inflation and general uncertainty that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing).

Simply reversing the proposed tax cuts has reduced the damage in part, but not completely. If a car runs you over, you can't ameliorate your injuries by having the car reverse back over you again! And with Truss and Kwarteng at the controls, you can expect to be the victim of lots of hit and runs in future.

Monday, 19 October 2020

"Money" again

From the comments to the previous post:

Graeme: I knew this from A level economics in the 1980s. Money is a medium of exchange (1), a unit of account (2) and a store of value (3). Depending on the transaction, one of these things is more important than the others. But the other functions still exist.

(1) and (2) are clearly true. That would apply to things with intrinsic value as well, gold in historic times or cigarettes in prison. "Money" has no intrinsic value (numbers on your bank statement or bank notes or shopping vouchers) but is still (3) a store of value, because it is a claim on something else. The fact that you can swap these for goods and services gives them value. If a shop sells vouchers, it has cash in the bank and an equal and opposite liability to provide goods in future. It does not make a profit by selling the vouchers (unless they lapse, in which case it's a win for the shop and a loss to whoever let them lapse) and the existence of those vouchers does not change the total amounts of goods available to consume now or in future.

Ralph Musgrave: But government/central bank created money (with which the above article started is very different). That is, what exactly does the BoE owe you in respect of your £10 notes? Nothing much!

The BoE is part of the government. When it's time to pay your tax, you could pay it in bank notes which the self-same government printed in the first place. Once you've paid your tax, they could throw all those bank notes on a bonfire. Basic Modern Monetary Theory. The same logic applies to numbers on bank statements, they appear out of nowhere (printing) and disappear into nothing (incinerating).

What's in it for the government and what gives those bank notes value?

You can see them as permission slips to earn money. If you want to earn £100,000 real money in the private economy, you need to acquire £40,000's worth of those permits by the end of the year to hand back as income tax. Even if you invoice only in foreign currencies and earn €110,000 or $120,000 or whatever, you will still need to get your hands on £40,000's worth of permits.

The government puts the permits into circulation by printing them (out of nowhere) and using them to pay public sector salaries, old age pensions, welfare etc (and increasingly, giving money to their mates for nothing in return). Businesses and workers have to get hold of those permits to pay their tax and they do this by providing a certain fraction of their output to public sector workers, pensioners etc in exchange for the permits. Those salaries and pensions transfer output from private businesses to public sector workers and pensioners, which is the whole idea.

If you yourself have more permits than you need to pay tax, you use them to buy goods and services from a business which needs more. The logic applies just as well to rationing vouchers. A non-smoker who wants to bake a cake swaps his tobacco vouchers with a smoker who doesn't need his full quota of eggs or flour. Or the non-smoker can sell them to a smoker and use the cash to buy something else that isn't rationed. The rationing vouchers have no intrinsic value and cost very little to create, but they still have value. Once used, they go on a bonfire.

Saturday, 4 May 2019

Excellent analogy about "money"

By Tim Youmans on Twitter:

Many years in the future... Earth is now uninhabitable because [reasons]... out of necessity, the people left figured out how to travel light speed, and are heading to a planet orbiting the star Tau Ceti to start over..

(Years into their journey)

Joe: Wait!!! We have to go back!

Kim: Ha! Good one. There is no going back, we only had enough fuel for one trip.

Joe: But we HAVE to!

Kim: What could be so important?

Joe: (mumbling) I forgot the money.

Kim: Huh?

Joe: I forgot the money! OK?

Kim: YOU FORGOT THE MONEY?!

Joe: Yes. I'm sorry..

Kim: You're SORRY? We're heading to a new planet to save our species, and you leave... wait, how much?

Joe: 100 trillion dollars..

Kim: You leave 100 TRILLION DOLLARS(!!) on our old planet with no way for us to get it?!

Joe: Yeah, pretty much.

Kim: I mean... we should just hit the self destruct button! What are we going to do? We get to our new planet full of resources and everything we need to thrive, but HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR IT?!! My goodness, Joe! You just killed the human species!!


The author concludes that these people would be saved if they understood Modern Monetary Theory, which is besides the point. MMT is just a (very good) explanation of how it works; money will always come into existence, and MMT can explain it, but an understanding thereof is largely unnecessary.

But excellent analogy nonetheless, see also: lefties wailing about all the wealth hidden in tax havens. There is no wealth hidden in tax havens, what is being hidden is ownership of real wealth in real countries.
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My other favourite analogy is rationing vouchers. When they are issued, it is akin to the government printing money and handing it out as Universal Dividends; when you buy food/petrol and hand over a voucher, that is akin to taxation (i.e. unprinting money - presumably they are then physically destroyed). Those vouchers had a certain value, just like coins and notes, because if you didn't need to use all your vouchers, you could sell them to somebody who wanted to consume more food/petrol than their allotted amount.

So in this case, the spending/money printing comes first and the taxation/unprinting comes last. The purpose of the unprinting is to prevent inflation, i.e. if there are more vouchers in circulation than there is food available, the value of each voucher falls accordingly. It would clearly be insane for the government to demand that consumers hand over vouchers when they want to buy food/petrol before any have been printed!

Friday, 13 October 2017

Idiot argument of the day.

While many of his points are sound, Mark Littlewood jumps the shark with this:

...for example, try to imagine government food vouchers being redeemable at McDonald’s.

??? The government issues food vouchers all the time. They are coins and notes, or their electronics equivalent, redeemable in McD's and just about anywhere else.

Monday, 11 September 2017

Economic Myths: The BBC's brief history of paper money

It's all fine and dandy until this bit:

But the government soon moved stealthily to a fiat system, maintaining the principle but abandoning the practice of redeeming jiaozi for metal. Bring an old jiaozi in to the government treasury to be redeemed, and you would receive a crisp new jiaozi.

That was a very modern step. The money we use today all over the world is created by central banks and it's backed by nothing in particular except the promises to replace old notes with fresh ones.


Nope.

Rather counter-intuitively, government issued 'money' does not require any asset-backing whatsoever, all the government needs is a system of whereby people HAVE TO hand those notes back to the government which effectively 'unprints' them again. The mistake that the Weimar Republic et al made was not taxing enough.

This is most easily explained with rationing vouchers. The vouchers had virtually zero cost of production to the government, were handed out as a kind of universal welfare entitlement and people HAD TO hand them over when they bought food or petrol. The government played little or no part in supplying food or petrol so they were not 'asset backed'.

Some people did not use all their vouchers and other people wanted to buy more food or petrol than their official ration, so would pay for them. That's where the value comes from.

On the day rationing was abolished, all the spare vouchers people had accumulated became worthless. Similarly, if the government had printed far more vouchers than there was food or petrol available, the vouchers would have significantly fallen in value.

It's the same with governments printing money (or its electronic equivalent). For every 'real £' of value you create, collect or spend, the government demands that you also pay X% of that value in 'government £' to the government.

Everybody needs to earn (by producing or collecting rent) and to consume goods and services. So you HAVE TO somehow obtain the permission slips to do in 'government £' from the government (or from beneficiaries of government spending). That's what gives them their value.

So the real economy works backwards from the answer and for convenience, denominates its transactions in whatever the national currency is. It wouldn't matter what 'currency' is used in the real economy (like BitCoin), the government simply converts your BitCoin earnings/spending to its 'government £' equivalent and charges you tax accordingly.

The thought experiment works just as well with any tax, including Land Value Tax. It's basic Modern Monetary Theory.

Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Chartalism

It turns out from the various comments to my recent banking post that Modern Monetary Theory is just Chartalism repackaged.

And what the heck is Chartalsim, you ask. It is, again, stating the blindingly obvious, from Wiki:

A prince, who should enact that a certain proportion of his taxes should be paid in a paper money of a certain kind, might thereby give a certain value to this paper money; even though the term of its final discharge and redemption should depend altogether on the will of the prince.

— Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations


To give a folksy example, as a matter of fact, the wife and I don't give our children cash rewards for helping round the house and neither do we charge them rent.

But we could give them coloured plastic tokens for helping round the house ('government spending'). Those tokens are of course worthless UNLESS we demand that our children hand back a certain number of those tokens in rent each week and a certain number each mealtime ('paying tax') so that the budget balances. It is the 'taxing' which gives the tokens their value, not the spending.

So, for example, if one child has a shortfall because he or she hasn't helped round the house much, faced with eviction or going hungry, they would have to buy tokens from the other child, either for cash or in exchange for a favour (or just try stealing them). So the tokens clearly have value.

With modern currencies, society has organised itself so that the value of most transactions is measured in terms of the government-issued unit of currency for convenience.

This is not actually essential, we could do all our private trading in terms of dollars or bitcoins or gold or anything else, the government can (and does) collect taxes in sterling (by converting your dollar or bitcoin profits to its sterling equivalent and charging tax on that). The theory works much better if the government collects user charges like LVT rather than taxing income and profits, but that is a separate topic.

While this is all a bit counter-intuitive, it's not difficult to grasp. Think about it, if you go and pay your taxes in cash, the tax officer could chuck those bank notes straight on a bonfire without this affecting anything*; if the government needs more bank notes, it can just print up fresh ones at minimal cost. It's exactly the same with our hypothetical plastic tokens, my wife could collect X tokens each meal time and then put them through a shredder. Those tokens have served their purpose.

* The same as the Bank of England chucking all the UK government bonds it holds onto a bonfire; the government can't owe itself money. Despite what people say.

Sunday, 13 September 2015

All these economic 'theories' are not mutually exclusive.

In the surprisingly lengthy comments thread to Yes, banking really is that simple, I somehow get the impression that a lot of people think that there is one answer to the exclusion of all others. A bit like the argument between Intelligent Design and evolution. IMHO there is plenty of evidence for the latter, it can be observed and it stacks up in theory; the former is blind faith, but hey.

The point is that banks 'split the zero' and create debts/financial assets out of thin air.

This is fine if all banks are doing is acting as debt collectors for producers of new goods and services. So if I want to buy a new car from Ford, I could pay £20,000 cash or take out a personal loan of £20,000, in which case. Ford are given a credit with the bank (just the same as if they had paid in my £20,000 cash) and I am given a debit which I pay off over four years. This is not really any different to me buying the car from Ford and agreeing that I will pay them £5,000 a year for four years, with the bank factoring that debt, doing the administration and chasing etc.

The mischief we want to prevent is credit/land price/share price bubbles. The full reserve banking idea not only misses the point but contains a loophole a mile wide, so would achieve nothing unless you heap more and more rules on top.

Let's do the easiest one first, Modern Monetary Theory, which keeps cropping up, despite the fact that they have no strong opinions on bank reform one way or another. To my mind, the basic tenet is is a statement of the bleedin' obvious:

An ongoing tax obligation, in concert with private confidence and acceptance of the currency, maintains its value. Because the government can issue its own currency at will, MMT maintains that the level of taxation relative to government spending (the government's deficit spending or budget surplus) is in reality a policy tool that regulates inflation and unemployment, and not a means of funding the government's activities per se.

So you have to have some taxes, or else the currency is meaningless: you can consider rationing vouchers to be a kind of citizen's income (spending), but they only have value because you have to hand them over when you buy something that is rationed (pay a tax). The vouchers also have value, because different people have different preferences, so somebody who doesn't smoke can sell his tobacco vouchers to a smoker etc. If the government then goes a bit mad and prints more vouchers than food or petrol is available, the vouchers fall in value (= inflation). If the government abandons rationing (stops taxing) then the vouchers are just so much waste paper.

However, most MMTers don't commit themselves to what kind of tax is best, they seem to consider them as interchangeable. It is only if you apply logic that you can divine which kind of tax sits best with the theory.

Clearly, if the government wants to minimise unemployment, taxing employment (or 'wealth creation' or whatever you want to call it) is a no-no in good times or in bad. So minimising inflation must be key, in which case, look at what sort of inflation you are getting and then tax the thing whose price is being inflated.

There is no natural tendency of wages or prices in a free-trade economy without currency controls to increase in nominal terms; so most of the 'inflation' is in the price of land/location (and other monopoly rights). Seeing as the initial cost of these was precisely zero, every single penny of land/location values is pure inflation, so it seems consistent with MMT to have taxes on land/location values.

Next, The Austrian School. Some of the underlying stuff is pretty waffly, but you can't really argue with the subjective theory of value, the concept of opportunity costs or consumer sovereignty.

The interesting bit is their views on the business cycle and bank regulation. They missed the point a bit here, very little bank lending is to business, the best and primary source of finance is realised and reinvested profits. They seem to think that over-lending during credit bubbles all goes into business mal-investment and this leads to crashes. There is some element of this, but most of the over-lending just inflates the price of land, shares and other monopoly/non-productive assets/rights.

Mises said it is central banks which encourage over-lending (observably true) but Hayek countered that if left to their own devices, banks would behave just as badly (also observably true) and that therefore central bank control was necessary. We can complete the circle by pointing out that even if a central bank's initial clear instructions are to prevent credit bubbles, in the end they suffer regulatory capture and if not, politicians will ride the wave of Home-Owner-Ism and the central bank ends up encouraging banks to over-lend (with low interest rates, deposit protection guarantees, too big to fail mentality etc).

So again, if we had a tax system which kept land prices low, and either broke up or regulated monopolies (with a special tax or with price caps), much less lending would be diverted into these.

The Chicago School is worth a mention, if only to point out that a couple of them such as Frank Knight were shills for the landowners and oil and mining companies and tried to trash LVT by pretending that these things are 'capital' in the same way as machines or know-how. Milton Friedman on the other hand said that LVT was the least bad tax and supported simplification of the welfare system down to something akin to a Citizen's Dividend. He called it negative income tax, but it's the same thing, really.

Many MMTers seem to recommend policies which we could call "Keynesian". The general idea is that the government should spend counter-cyclically, so it runs deficits during a recession and surpluses when things are going well (although most people and politicians ignore the second bit). If you look at J M Keynes' theories in a bit more detail, they are in fact nonsense - stuff like the fiscal multiplier and so on. But the general idea is fair enough, the Hoover Dam is a concrete example.

But he misses the point - why not try and have a system which eliminates or at least minimises recessions in the first place? At least the Austrians went back a step and looked at ways of doing this rather than working out how to patch things up afterwards (the Austrians were very much in favour of small government and non-intervention).

Again, avoiding credit/land price/share price bubbles is key to this. There is no perfect correlation, but by and large, the bigger the land price boom in a country, the worse the ensuing recession. So the worst affected countries in Europe were Ireland, Spain, Greece, Iceland and the UK (the effects have been mitigated by keeping the land price bubble going at enormous cost to the taxpayer, chickens which will all come home to roost eventually). Germany, Austria and Switzerland had much less land price inflation and they suffered the least.

So taxes which depress the productive economy (VAT, income tax, NIC, corporation tax) should be kept to a minimum and as much tax as possible or necessary collected from land values - see Singapore and Hong Kong, who barely had a recession at all. Then you won't have such bad recessions and we won't need to try Keynesian patching up after the event, bearing in mind that a lot of the extra government spending is either on complete crap/white elephants or just goes into keeping the land price bubble going - Hoover Dam aside.

You'll see the general theme here.

All these schools of thought are just looking at different things, they are not mutually exclusive. The only economic theory, which works in practice and which sits comfortably with all of them is replacing as many taxes as possible with Land Value Tax, i.e. Georgism.

Henry George was suitably vague on how LVT receipts should be 'spent'. It's like MMT in reverse; the government should prevent land price inflation by taxing land values; how it is spent is a separate topic. So arguments about whether to replace Trident; give money to third world dictators; provide 'free' healthcare and education; who should get welfare and how much; are separate arguments. LVT would lead to a massive improvement (boost to the economy and more equality) if it were simply a replacement tax and what the government spends money on left entirely unchanged.

Until you realise that there is a virtuous circle. If spending is focussed more on things which help the economy and which boost the rental value of land; then the government makes a 'profit' just like any good landlord, which can be ploughed back in, and so on and so forth, until we reach a level where there is nothing more worth spending it on and the surplus is dished out as a Citizen's Dividend.

The notion of the Citizen's Dividend neatly closes the circle with the MMTers again, who seem to support the idea of the Job Guarantee. Apart from the administration involved, if we can reduce unemployment to its bare minimum by getting rid of taxes on employment, then trying reducing it further is a futile exercise and leads to malinvestment i.e. government sponsored job creation schemes.

It is better to just give somebody £100 a week and gamble on him topping this up with a private sector job which creates extra wealth, however little, than giving him £100 a week to dig holes and somebody else £100 a week to fill them in again, leaving them no spare time to create real new wealth.

Thursday, 21 May 2015

Economic Myths: The government needs to run a deficit to enable private saving.

Caveat: I whole heartedly agree with the basic tenant of Modern Monetary Theory i.e. that there is no real direct link between government spending, taxation, borrowing and debt repayments; in the very long run they sort of match up in accounting terms is all.

But then they go off on a complete tangent e.g. here:

It may not be apparent from perusing mainstream newspapers or watching the evening news, but the private sector’s capacity to save and pay off debt is inextricably linked to the government’s use of fiscal policy.

Attempts to slash budget deficits will actually work against private-sector efforts to get debt under control. By directly subtracting from demand, fiscal contraction will have a negative impact on output, employment, income and therefore private saving, frustrating private-sector attempts to pay off debt.

The following accounting identity shows an aggregate relationship that must hold by definition for a closed economy, such as the global economy as a whole:

(G – T) = (S – I)

In this identity, G is government expenditure, T is tax revenue, S is private saving and I is gross private investment.


Somehow or other, government deficits are spun as being a good thing as they enable private saving or enable the private sector to pay off debts.

This is all robbing Peter to pay Paul; if you allocate government debt back to the individual taxpayers who have to pay the interest and principal, it all cancels out. Admittedly, government debt is usually never paid off, it is just rolled forward indefinitely, that's the key to all this but a separate topic.

More importantly, if the government is running a balanced budget, then G-T = 0 and we are left with...

S-I = 0
Hence S=I
In other words, private (i.e. household) saving = Private (i.e. business) investment.

(The distinction between 'saving' and 'investment' should not be under-estimated, see my earlier post).

Overall, the optimum savings ratio for each individual and hence the population as a whole is zero but the overall optimum amount of business investment is positive.

So that means that S-I could be a negative number; if we want the equation to balance, then the government has to run a surplus i.e. G-T<0, i.e. T>G.

This strikes me as complete nonsense, ergo the original equation must also be nonsense; common sense tells us that lower taxation would, all things being equal, lead to more business investment (as long as it doesn't spill over into higher land prices - let's assume a sane tax system which taxes production less and land more).

Sunday, 19 April 2015

Modern Monetary Theory and Land Value Tax

Random left the following lengthy comment on Lola's post on why LVT is inevitable, tidied up as follows:

Every pound of govt spending comes back as taxation.

To realize this you have to think harder about what taxation really is for. It certainly is not to 'fund' spending. It is to stop spending become inflationary. Once you realise this you see people voluntary tax themselves - it is called 'saving.' In MMT it is referred to 'voluntary taxation.'

So we get the equation Govt spending = local saving + net imports (foreigners saving) + tax.

Now we can argue over who gets compulsory taxation and who gets voluntary taxation. But it has nothing to do with public services.

The main power of billionaires (even if they don't know it yet, and if rich people are reading this, then yep) is the ability to spend their billions on real resources and cause inflation. Then govt has to cut spending/raise taxes to stop it.

Once you see things from the MMT point of view it is very clear. For example in developing countries capital controls won't be all that is needed. The govt needs to ban imports of luxury goods as rich people spend money on foreign goods and the exchange rate declines. There is tons of material on this - Neil Wilson's site on economics displays things very clearly to accountants and he hammers these types of points home. Bill Mitchell's blog is good as well.

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There is a lot of truth in that, but all roads lead to Rome, and the kind of tax which dovetails most neatly with that is a tax on rents and monopolies (mainly land) i.e. LVT.

Why is LVT therefore vastly preferably to taxes on income, assuming its main aim is to address inequality, lack of private saving and current account deficits?

1. Equality is A Good Thing in an of itself, provided the 'costs' of achieving equality do not outweigh the benefits - there is no point levelling people down, the idea is to level people up.

The prime driver of inequality is land ownership, that is between Baby Boomers and younger generations; but more importantly, the really rich people get most of their wealth or income from land, banking (80% of bank loans are secured on land) and other monopoly rights (landing slots, broadcasting rights etc). As others have pointed out, in the UK there are more estate agents/letting agents than school teachers.

2. Private saving is generally regarded as A Good Thing and there is plenty of evidence to show the negative correlation between land prices and the savings ratio. So keep land prices low and stable and you get more private saving; keep taxes on profits low and you get more investing. Win-win.

3. Constant current account deficits are A Bad Thing, they are a sign that the domestic economy is running below potential. The UK's current account deficit is running at about 6 per cent of GDP. How would LVT help..?

i. Removing taxes on economic activity helps the economy grow; reducing the average overall rate from about 50% to 20% would mean that the economy expands by about 12% (the deadweight cost of taxes are the tax rate cubed). So people are more likely to spend their money in the UK because there is more to spend it on. So that's the trade deficit sorted (see Denmark in the 1960s).

ii. More private saving = less importing.

iii. The bulk of monetary inflation is down to land prices; with LVT in place, this kind of inflation would not be an issue. The natural tendency of free markets and dynamic capitalism is for prices to fall gradually over time (relative to wages i.e. people are more productive).

As to the last paragraph:

4. With LVT, you don't need 'capital controls', which are a recipe for inflation and all sorts of other skulduggery. When foreigners 'invest' in the UK, they seem to love investing in land and other monopolies, as their current profits would largely be collected as tax, there would be less leakage that way. Money which foreigners have earned here fair and square will be taxed lightly and they should be free to take their profits abroad.

5. LVT follows the principle of territorial taxation. Income should be taxed where it arises and not where it is spent. Simple observation tells us that really wealthy people are heartily indifferent to lump sum taxes on housing, what they are very sensitive about is the tax rate on income, especially on remitted income. Leaving remitted income untaxed would therefore encourage them to spend more money in the UK (until the countries they are plundering wise up and impose their own LVT).

6. Banning imports of luxury goods is a nonsense and barely enforceable in practice, in any event, what's wrong with it?

7. LVT is voluntary taxation; nobody is forced to live exactly where they do (and nobody is forced to be a landlord!), it is a tax on consumption of land. If you don't want to pay tobacco duty, don't smoke (or smuggle); if you don't want to pay so much LVT, then trade down, there will always be somebody prepared to trade up (you can't smuggle land into the UK). Everybody therefore has a choice between spending their money on other people's output or on land.

Wednesday, 28 May 2014

The TaxPayers' Alliance way off piste as per usual

From City AM:

TODAY is tax freedom day, according to the Adam Smith Institute... The day represents the portion of the UK’s national income needed to pay direct and indirect taxes, collected by central and local authorities. Today, 41.09 per cent of 2014 is over – the same proportion of the UK’s income that is collected in tax.

Despite the day coming earlier than it did last year, “cost of government day” is still far ahead, coming on 26 June. The second day comes nearly a week earlier than in 2013, but the month-long gap between the two events illustrates the difference between what the government collects in tax revenues and what it shells out in spending...

The Taxpayers’ Alliance also weighed in on the findings, saying that the average household spends more on tax than on essential items like fuel, clothing, food and housing. The typical tax bill comes to £9,415 and the essentials run to £7,727, according to the group.


Where on earth do they get £9,415 from?

According to the PSFD, page 22, the UK government spent £640 billion in 2013-14 (of which approx. £540 billion was collected in tax and £100 billion was extra borrowing).

So the average tax paid per household was (say) £21,000 and the median is maybe two-thirds of that, £14,000.

And seeing as extra government borrowing is just deferred tax, the true average is £24,000 and the median is £16,000.

While the TPA are really good when it comes to pillorying government waste and theft, they don't understand the tax system, they say that Council Tax is the biggest single bill paid by households etc. Who pays the piper, I guess.

(As MMTers point out, the government doesn't actually collect tax money and then spend it. The government creates money by spending it and then, to prevent hyper-inflation, destroys a similar amount of money by collecting taxes. But that's another topic.)

UPDATE: Dinero queried the MMT logic and Derek explained it rather neatly:

It's just an accounting thing, Dinero.

You can look at the government as collecting existing pound notes into the Consolidated Fund and then spending them, or as creating new pound notes for spending and destroying the old ones collected for taxation.

Either way works for the accountants but the advantage of thinking about it in the second way is that it makes it clear who creates the pound notes and when.

Wednesday, 21 September 2011

If you ask the wrong question, you'll never get the right answer.

From MoneyWeek (who ought to know better):

Let's use King, Smith, Williams and Van Boening's 1993 definition: a bubble is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values".

At present the US government can borrow money over ten years and pay under 2% a year. Germany need only pay 1.8%. The UK can borrow at 2.3% – considerably lower than inflation, which sits between 4% and 5%, depending on what measure you use. (And bear in mind that real inflation as suffered by the man who wants to eat, drink, travel and keep warm is considerably higher.)

If somebody approached you and said: "Psst. Have I got an investment opportunity for you! Lend me money and I'll guarantee you'll lose 2% to 3%, year in, year out." Unless that somebody was extremely charming – or armed – it's unlikely you'd see this as an 'opportunity'.

Yet, as Allister Heath writes in The Spectator this week, "UK and American governments can be loaned money – and, in effect, be paid for the privilege. This is crazy. It shows that the bond markets are well and truly in major bubble territory, their valuations as absurd as the rocketing subprime properties of yore."


*sigh*

The basic rule for banks is "loans create deposits" and for governments, the rule is "spending in excess of tax revenues creates debts/borrowings". It's not the case that the government borrows the money first and then spends it, the simple act of spending creates the borrowings. It's basic Modern Monetary Theory.

For example: you're a quangocrat or a corporatist and your chums in the government ask you to do some Very Important Consultancy Work for £400 million, you'd be daft not to accept the offer. They tell you that they can't pay you in cash, but would £400 million in gilts, redeemable in ten years' time be OK?

You say yes, of course, but maybe you bump up the price to £496 million to cover your inflation loss. You then appoint your chum in government as a director of your company, bung him £100,000 "emoluments", maybe make a £1 million donation to his Party and everybody's happy.

*/sigh*