The Falklands: free market fun

From today's CityAM Forum:

... the governments of the United Kingdom and Argentina would agree that those Falklanders who were qualified to vote would be allowed to do so in a referendum. The referendum would allow the settlers – who are English-speaking and English by custom, institutions and loyalties – to vote on whether they prefer the status quo, or whether they would agree ("yes") to an Argentine takeover...

The referendum would be designed so that Argentina could offer a cash incentive. Before the referendum, Argentina would deposit an amount (let’s say $500,000) in escrow in Swiss bank accounts for every man, woman and child who had proven their Falklands residence prior to the referendum.

If the referendum went in Argentina’s favour... then the funds in escrow would be transferred and Argentina’s unambiguous sovereignty over the Falklands would be established. Argentina’s cost, in this hypothetical, would be about $1.6bn.

Also relevant is that the UK spends on average about £100 million a year maintaining a military presence on the Falkland Islands.

Unfortunately, we don't know whether or how much oil is down there or what it's worth, this is important as well. If it is worth a huge amount like £20 billion, then the UK government would offer a larger counter-bribe to persuade the islanders to vote "no".