The apparent decline in vaccine effectiveness might be just a statistical thing.

The anti-vaxxers are bound to jump on stories like this (headline about declining vaccine effectiveness chosen at random - but no blog post is complete without a hyperlink).

But how bad is it really? Let's crack open a spreadsheet...

Simplified assumptions

1. In the unvaccinated population, ten per cent of the population will catch XYZ disease each month (about twice as much as for Covid-19).
2. You either recover and are immune for several years, or you die.
3. The vaccine is "60% effective", i.e. in the vaccinated population, only four per cent will catch it each month.

So the sensible decision for any individual ex ante is to get vaccinated.

(It appears that in real life, the Covid-19 vaccines are only about "60% effective" against infection, but about "75% effective" against having a severe case and about "90% effective" against dying, but that then makes comparisons more complicated, so let's just use the simplified assumptions and look at total cases.)

Worked example, first 24 months of the epidemic

Country A and Country B both have a population of one million.
Country A doesn't do vaccinations; Country B (miraculously) vaccinates its whole population on Day One.
So in month 1, there are 100,000 cases in Country A and 40,000 cases in Country B.
That's a clear win for Country B.

As time goes on, it becomes less clear who's winning...

By month 15, there will be about 23,000 cases in each country, there being ever fewer people in Country A who haven't had it and aren't immune.
After that, there will be more cases in Country B, there being still plenty of people who haven't caught it yet.
By month 24, there will have been 920,000 cases in Country A (nearly everybody has had it) and in Country B there will have been 625,000 cases.
So if we calculate vaccine effectiveness after 24 months, looking at total figures, the vaccine was only 32% effective.

After five or ten years, even in Country B, total cases are heading towards 100%, it's just that Country A gets there a lot quicker. If we calculate again after five or ten years, it would look as if the vaccine had little effect whatsoever apart from 'flattening the curve' (itself A Very Good Thing).

But it was still a good decision (for you as an individual) to get the vaccine ex ante, even if ex post it doesn't seem to have made that much of a difference (on the level of the whole population). Even if the worst happens, you have at least gained another few months or years of healthy life.

Just had my first Covid-19 jab...

... and now plan to wallow in self-pity for the rest of the weekend.

1. The whole thing was very well organised, from booking system to the centre itself.

2. Staff (mix of NHS and volunteers) were very friendly, or at least courteous and efficient.

3. Oxford Astra-Zenecca.

4. Second dose due in ten weeks.

Last night I had the strangest dream

Last night I had the strangest dream
I ever dreamed before
I dreamed the world had all agreed
To be stupid and even more
I dreamed I saw a mighty room
The room was filled with men
And the paper they were signing said
They'd wreck the economy more

And when the papers all were signed
And a million copies made
They all joined hands and bowed their heads
And grateful prayers were prayed
And the people in the streets below
Were dancing round and round
And clapping for the NHS
and banging pans and standing round

Last night I had the strangest dream
I ever dreamed before
I dreamed the world had all agreed
To wreck us all for evermore

Apologies to Simon and Garfunkel.

The above song came unbidden to me this morning. Its been a long time since I felt the need to blog but the extra 1.6 billion pounds that the government is going to give to the local councils ( despite cutting and curtailing their budgets by 3% each year for the last decade or more) just makes me aware that this all could be a nightmare that could have been avoided.
How you ask?




The full link can be accessed here (it's for medical professionals only). Well its a free country. Everyone should read it. and then take at least 10000 iu a day.

Fact is that 2000-4000 iu is woefully inadequate to beat infections. Your body will manufacture 20000 iu if you strip off and lie in the sun at midday in June until you turn slightly pink and you have enough cholesterol for the UVB rays to turn into Vitamin D3.

A bottle of 360 x 10000iu ( thats right 3.6 million units costs £25* (* average) might be less if you bought in bulk). The economy, work, everything that has happened in this country since the begining of March, need not have happened. We need not be in lockdown. The government could have spent £2 billion, which is a drop in the ocean to be honest considering how much they are flinging around willy nilly with no thought to the amount of debt that this will cause the economy.

Bought us all a bottle of that 3.6 million units and told us to all take at least 20000 iu a day to make sure we didnt succumb to Covid 19 and to boost our immunity and therefore protect the NHS, cure a few subclinical cases of rickets, stave off MS and a few other diseases and other viral conditions in the process.

It would have saved money and also saved the economy. We could have been in a better situation economy wise than Sweden and we neednt have had social distancing . By the way the deaths in Sweden are mostly from the Somali community who cant make Vit D in Sweden because they are so dark skinned and need five hours in optimal conditions with all their clothes off. And anyone who knows what Somalis wear in the height of a Swedish Summer will know that that doesnt happen. There have been countless articles asking why the BAME community are overrepresented in the death statistics. This is the reason.

I can probably guarantee you that most of the deaths above 65 were on statins. If you don't have enough cholesterol you cant make Vit D3 from the sun, there's simply not enough. Why are we languishing inside and not enjoying this sunny springtime weather? Because the government said so? Let me remind everyone that is reading here that every atrocity in Germany between 1933 and 1945 was legally sanctioned. By its government. The government and the health service if they had their heads screwed on should have made sure no one was Vit D3 deficient, for years. They knew that everyone was deficient. There have been countless articles since 2010.

Oh and tablets for a fat soluble vitamin? Do you see Vitamin E in tablets No you see it in oil. caps So tablets don't work.

The reason that the government didn't do this is because the pharmaceutical companies are losing profits and want to make a useless vaccine. There are coronaviruses every year, that are common colds. They've been working on a patented cure for the common cold since the 1950s . Unfortunately the only thing that actually works is a high level of Vitamin D3, which makes no money for the companies.

We've been sold down the river... Why have we sacrificed our economy when it had a simple cheap solution?

THINK! it could save your life. 97% of people in the UK are Vitamin D3 deficient. Start asking your MP about this document and why this deficiency which is widespread hasn't been tackled in the last ten years.