George Papandreou's proposal to hold a referendum on sticking with the EU's prescribed 'austerity measures' or not (sub-text: whether to stay in the Euro-zone of not, or at least this is what the French/German government appear to think it means, or possibly want it to mean) has taken everybody completely by surprise, so we end up with a situation where whatever anybody says about it says more about the person saying it than about the actual event.
The Daily Mash reckons that George P is just an old time con artist.
Leo Kolivakis seems to agree that it's pure brinksmanship on Greece's part to try and squeeze out an even better deal.
Angela Merkel seems genuinely miffed and is doing brinkswomanship of her own.
David Malone aka Golem XIV reckons that George P wants the people to vote to stay in the Euro-zone, and will launch a propaganda campaign of shock and awe proportions and intensity.
And so on, for every article you get a different opinion and it's not inconceivable that George P doesn't actually know what he's doing, short of going out in a blaze of glory.
To my great surprise/disappointment, it appears as though Allister Heath, editor of CityAM is firmly in the Greece-should-stay-in-the-Euro-zone camp:
The Eurozone’s main aim now will be to contain the fallout from any Greek default and withdrawal from the euro. The value of Greek assets (land, equity and debt) redenominated in a new drachma would slump 70-80 per cent.
Combined with inevitable capital controls, social collapse and mass nationalisation, the chaos would inflict huge losses on all companies with operations in the country. The European Central Bank itself may become insolvent as its Greek government bonds would become near-worthless...
I see absolutely no reason to make any of those assumptions. For example, was there 'mass nationalisation' in post-WW2 Germany, or in Argentine or in Iceland or in any other country which defaulted on its government/bank debts or devalued/replaced its currency?
Answer: nope.
Writing off debts is by and large a zero-sum game, so if 'everybody else' ends up worse off, then surely the Greeks would end up better off, after an initial adjustment period?
Aftermath
13 hours ago
