Wednesday, 7 September 2016

A vignette of the value of land

In Argentina, the government is currying votes by encouraging the "Originarios", the self-proclaimed descendants of the tribes who occupied the land before the Spanish conquest, to claim back their "tribal lands" off the descendants of the people the Spanish gave the land to.

From Bill Bonner's Diary*

“You are so naïve,” said an engineer who came to check on our grapes and oversee the pruning. "You don’t really understand anything. This whole originario thing is a scam. They call themselves the ‘Diaguita Community,’ but no one knows if they have any real connection to the Diaguita people that once lived here. And they say they want to live in a traditional way on their land. But it’s nonsense. They want pickup trucks and television, just like everyone else. The originario thing is just a way for the organizers to get money. The local people are pawns. They don’t know what’s going on.

You think you’re going to go to them and explain the situation. You think you can tell them why it is a bad idea… and why they would be better off in the modern economy. Well, of course they would be better off. If this succeeds, they’ll be condemned to live hard lives with just enough from the government to get by. The government will say they are living in a ‘traditional way,’ but you’ve seen what that means. No heat. No running water. No education. It’s terrible.

The best thing that could happen – for them – would be for you to go to the ringleaders and make a deal. You give them some money. And they back off. Look what happened at [a neighboring ranch that was seized by the government and given to the originarios]. It was all an inside deal. The originarios made noise. And the owner of the land had a good contact with the government. He was paid by the government for the land… far more than it was really worth. Everybody came out ahead, except the originarios. The politicians gave the land to the originarios and won some votes. The landowner got his money. But the originarios now live in a state of perpetual poverty. No one wants to invest in their community because they don’t respect property rights."


*Bill Bonner owns a ranch in Gualfin, Argentina.

Homeys going round the logic clock yet again.

From City AM:

Rents kept on an upwards climb in August, but the pace of rent growth is slowing. In August, prices grew by 3.1 per cent year-on-year, according to HomeLet's rental index. Tenants signing new agreements paid an average £913 a month.

But this increase compares with annual inflation of between 3.5 per cent and 3.8 per cent for the last four months, and this time last year, year-on-year growth was nearly six per cent. The slowdown was most apparent in London and the sought east, and it correlates with the stamp duty tax changes that came in at the beginning of April.


Why on earth they imagine that rents should increase smoothly and you can simply project from the past into the future is anybody's guess. Rental values are a function of how well or badly the economy is doing; you have to forecast the economy and work backwards from that.

It's the last bit that rankles. There's no reason to assume that taxes paid by landowners/landlords collectively have the slightest impact on rents, they will neither push them up nor down.

Nonetheless, it makes a refreshing change from the squealing of a few months ago:

Rents increased across most of the UK as a stamp duty hike for buy-to-let landlords came into force, an index has found. The average rent in the three months to the end of April was £764 for the UK, excluding London, up from £755, the month before...

Landlords are also facing a financial squeeze due to restrictions on their tax breaks. It has been suggested that in the longer-term, tenants may see the extra costs passed on to them through increases to their rent.

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

All I need now is a clever play on words using "meddle" and "medal"...

From The Evening Standard:

A crackdown on bogus war heroes who wear medals they did not receive is set to be backed by the Government.

Ministers are poised to support a private members bill to stop so-called “Walter Mitty” characters disrespecting soldiers and their families. The new bill has been put forward by Dartford MP Gareth Johnson.

A Government source said: “On the face of it, this looks a very sensible bill that will strengthen and reinforce current safeguards.” The bill would stop people wearing medals or insignia they are not entitled to when they intend on deceiving the public.


From The Daily Telegraph:


The Earl of Wessex, who famously failed to complete his Royal Marines commando course and never saw active service, nevertheless holds nine honorary military appointments in the UK and Canada.

Today he chose to wear the dress uniform of the Royal Wessex Yeomanry, a reserve armoured regiment, of which he is Royal Honorary Colonel. It enables him to wear a striking scarlet peaked cap and gold braid, while on his chest he wears the Silver Jubilee Medal, the Golden Jubilee Medal, the Diamond Jubilee Medal and the New Zealand Commemorative Medal. Beneath his medals he wore the insignia of the Order of the Garter and the Royal Victorian Order.

Reader's Letter Of The Day

From yesterday's Evening Standard:

Chris Roberts dismisses Rohan Silva's piece on housing costs by saying that "there are plenty of cheaper places to live than London" which misses the point.

Of course there are plenty of towns where the cost of living is £10,000 a year lower but in those towns wages are also £10,000 a year less. Any apparent saving in rent would be matched by a fall in wages.

To put it another way, half of all UK graduates move to London, attracted by the higher wages and better job opportunities, but landlords have simply increased their rents to soak up those extra earnings. Most of the official growth in the London economy ends up in the pockets of landlords or those who sell up and move away.

Younger people like Rohan Silva are caught between a rock and a hard place, and lucky Baby Boomers who bought their homes for a song 20 or more years ago should be thanking their lucky stars, not sneering at people who will have it so much harder.

Mark Wadsworth, Young People's Party

Sunday, 4 September 2016

Censorship

Over the years of leaving comments on articles and blogs, I've noticed a few don't make it pass the moderators. Frustratingly, the more well thought through and polite the comment, sometimes the less likely it is to make it into the public domain.

One of my favourite places to leave the odd comment or two is the London School of Economics SERC( Spatial Economics Research Centre) blog. There, economists like Professors Cheshire, Overman and Hilber write about the evils of the UK planning system and its stifling effect on new construction, the cause of our so called Housing Crisis.

To be fair, they do by and large indulge my hectoring of the learned professors, but when I do manage to point out the contradictions in what they say, my comment never goes up.

Here's my latest in response to this article written by Professor Hilber over a month ago "The UK planning system: fit for purpose?"

"I completely agree with Prof Hilber that supply is not being matched with demand in the UK housing market, causing many serious problems. I am sure the Professor would agree that market rents are the best way of allocating scarce resources like valuable land(location). Problems arise when owner occupiers can impute their rent, as the market can not then fully internalize opportunity costs. This leads to misallocation, the cause of excessive vacancy, under occupation and investment distorted in favour of London/SE, at the expense of the economy as a whole.

We can therefore kill two birds with one stone. A title deed can currently be seen as meaning"rent free". If title owners paid full market rent(as tax) for exclusive rights to a valuable location, as renters do now, the selling price of land(location) would fall, theoretically, to zero. Dropping the selling price of property to its capital only value.

Only then could the market allocate land and immovable property at optimal efficiency. Negating the need to wastefully build homes and additional infrastructure where a functional market would deem them surplus to requirements.

It’s a puzzle then why the Professor and his colleagues continue to recommend policies that concentrate on building more houses, as this is clearly sub-optimal from an efficiency point of view, let alone one where lowering house prices is a priority. 

Of course politics of land value taxation is tricky, but then the consideration of political issues is not the job of an economist."

 If Prof Hilber responds on this blog it would be gratefully received and published.




Economic Myths: Additional supply in the housing market.

In the comments to this post, L Fairfax put up a spirited rebuttal of my statement that:

Observation tells us that in the medium term, additional supply in high demand/high wage areas creates its additional own demand and the overall effect is to push up rents and prices, but his point stands.

The evidence he gave was as follows (I hope I have summarised correctly):
- The Spanish seem to have proved that if you build enough new flats on the outskirts of towns they become cheap
- my family in Spain live in a city of 228,000 people and mass house building has caused prices to go from EUR 100,000 to EUR 35,000 for starter flats
- £120pcm for the mortgage on a flat in parts of Spain.
- wages have fallen not that much


To which my reply is:

1. Perhaps I should have focussed on rental values rather than prices in my original statement. The agglomeration effect I referred to apply only if the population of the town increases in response to the additional supply; in which case added supply and added demand cancel each other out and we would expect no downward movement.

2. Golden rule: rents are the Maypole around which house prices dance. Rental values are a far better reflection of the absolute "location, location, location" value (average local wages minus time cost of travel to place of work etc) and, unless something in the real economy changes, are fairly stable.

3. House prices are rental values divided by the prevailing interest rate, plus or minus expectations of future price changes, so booms and busts are self-fulfilling. People who paid EUR 100,000 for a home which only has a rental value of EUR 2,000 a year must have been gambling on massive rent or price increases, this is completely irrational short term behaviour which is difficult to factor into economic models.

4. Rational people will buy if the initial repayments on a mortgage are roughly the same as the rent, plus or minus a bit.

5. Flats cost EUR 35,000, so you'd expect the annual repayments on a mortgage to be around 5% of that = EUR 1,750 = EUR 150 cpm = £120 = looks about right.

6. So I would assume that local rents for a starter flat are about EUR 150 pcm, give or take a bit. It's not going to be much higher or else nobody would rent, they'd all buy instead.

7. So the missing bits of information here are:
- what has happened to rental values since the building boom started? If they have fallen by two-thirds, then that puts a hole in my theory, if they have remained stable (or merely fallen in line with GDP), that supports my theory.
- what has happened to the population of that town since the building boom started? If it has increased by less than new supply, that puts a downward pressure on (average) rents and prices (supply exceeds demand and no agglomeration benefit).

Saturday, 3 September 2016

Economic Myths: Corporation tax is a tax on capital.

The Faux Liberatarians say little about the worst taxes of all (VAT and NIC) and usually refuse to countenance the least bad tax (LVT). Which leaves us with Milton Friedman's second least bad tax, a flat tax on income.

The Faux Libs, for reasons unknown to me, are putting the superficial legal form of a tax above substance and by some convoluted process of logic decide that corporate income is somehow special compared to employment or self-employment income, or indeed interest or dividend income.

Enter stage right The Institute of Economic Affairs…

Bringing capital taxation into the 21st century

Woah! Corporation tax is not and never was a tax on capital! Imagine Joe, our self-employed van diver who owns his own van, he drives around picking up and delivering parcels. Are his takings earned income? Yes of course. You could if you wished split it into a small part for return on capital and the rest as true labour income, but why? He claims the depreciation and running costs as an expense and only pays tax on the value of his labour. The small part that relates to depreciation and running costs is in turn earned income of the car factory and the repair workshop etc. You could then split the income of the factory and the workshop into 'return on capital' and 'labour', but ultimately it is all labour (until you get all the way back to raw materials in the ground).

If Joe decides to form Joe Limited and trade through that, does the nature of the income magically change from labour income to capital income? Of course not.

As a matter of fact, corporation tax is a tax on income, full stop. There is no particular reason why this should be taxed at higher rates or lower rates than any other kind of income. It is not a tax on 'capital'. A business with capital worth £1 million that makes £50,000 profit pays the same tax as a business with very little capital and a £50,000 profit. A bit of a clue. I would have thought?

Summary:

* Corporation tax is an inefficient way to raise government revenue. It has a negative impact on growth, investment and entrepreneurship. A 2014 review of the literature found that 57.6 per cent of the amount raised by corporation tax is borne by workers.

Corporation tax, like any tax on income, is an inefficient way to raise tax (but not as bad as VAT/NIC), as is anything but LVT. That's an argument against taxing earned income, not against corporation tax per se. That 57.6% is questionable indeed, but even if true, so what? Do they really believe that if employers get a tax cut, then they would pay their workers higher wages? And if you are a worker, would you rather have PAYE which you bear 100% or corporation tax which you only bear 57.6%?

And in a large, faceless corporation, managers are supposed to try and maximise profits and dividends for their shareholders as a vague collective body, and managers are paid according to results. Does it make any difference to the manager that in economic terms, the government is large but silent shareholder who automatically receives a certain % of profits?

* Since 1981, the average corporate tax rate in key OECD countries has dropped from 47 per cent to 29 per cent. However, corporate tax revenues as a share of all taxation have remained stable during this time. They have increased as a share of GDP, in line with growth in the tax burden.

The first bit is probably true, the last bit isn't - tax as a share of GDP of western economies has been surprisingly stable for decades (35% - 40% of GDP). Laffer effects ensure that it is nigh impossible to get over that 40% threshold.

And the reason why corp tax revenues have remained stable despite the (welcome) fall in rates is partly Laffer effects and more likely because corporate profits have increased as a share of GDP, which in itself is a bad sign because that extra corporate profit is largely monopoly income (patents, land income, monopolies, government contracts etc).

* Economic developments such as globalisation and the growing importance of intangible assets underscore the need for reform of the way in which capital income is taxed.

It's not capital income, see above. Intangible assets are a government protected monopoly right/source of income and so the government is perfectly entitled to collect more tax from those who benefit from the system. Which means that registering IP (which stifles the economy) would no longer be a one-way bet; people would have to choose between giving it a go in the free market at a lower tax rate or relying on government protection but paying the appropriate price.

* The OECD’s BEPS proposals are likely to entail new costs and uncertainty for multinational firms. Furthermore, their volume and complexity means that effective implementation will be difficult, especially for developing countries.

If multinationals played ball, it would not impose 'new costs'. Somehow the global profits of such businesses have to be allocated between the various countries in which they operate and each country taxes its own share at whatever rate it chooses. So each multi-national just submits one worldwide tax return and whatever info is needed to enable total profits to be apportioned between all the countries in which it operates. The various countries taking part in the scheme then chuck all these returns on a pile and agree on how to apportion profits.

* Radical proposals for reform include a tax on turnover, a sales-based corporation tax, and formulary apportionment of multination profits. While these reforms might curb opportunities for tax avoidance, they would have damaging side-effects of their own.

Boo to turnover and sales taxes, the worst taxes of all. All tax on income is arbitrary and so the formula will be arbitrary, so what? In theory at least, reducing avoidance means that a lower tax rate can be applied overall to a larger amount of taxable income (which must be a good thing).

* The only radical reform that would improve on the status quo without introducing new distortions would be to replace corporation tax with a tax on the income distributed to shareholders. Such a system would overcome the weaknesses of the current system, while also reducing incentives for avoidance, and raising revenue in a growth-friendly way.

Here we go again. These people do not live in the real world. That is exactly the position that Apple is in - it siphons off most of its surplus/rental income into tax havens and parks the money in government bonds. For psychological reasons, it does not want to use that to pay dividends, because transferring the money back to the USA triggers a high tax bill. So Apple shareholders never get their dividends and no government ever gets the tax (they have to borrow money from Apple's offshore companies instead!)

Or to use an analogy: wild animals are free gift of nature but a bit scarce. People like catching and eating them, so the government decides to levy a tax. Surely it makes sense to levy the tax on actually catching the animals to minimise the number of animals being caught. With a reduced number of animals being caught, we can be pretty sure all those caught will be eaten. What the Faux Libs propose is zero tax on catching animals, but then imposing a tax when they are eaten. The result if this will be that many more animals will be caught a lot of them will be wasted. Plus being even more difficult to police.

* This reform could be implemented in stages to ensure the UK’s international tax treaties are updated. Once fully implemented, the new system would see UK shareholders taxed on their worldwide capital income, while foreign shareholders in UK firms would be exempt.

That's a terrible idea. We can safely assume that people in rich countries own more shares in companies in poor countries than vice versa. So governments in poor countries would be getting less tax and governments in rich countries would be getting more tax.

The only way to do it would be to make companies pay tax when they pay dividends, which means that companies will end up sitting on vast piles of untaxed cash, like the Apple situation.

* It is important to recognise that this discussion is about tax structure, and not necessarily the overall level of taxation. Those who wish to maintain existing levels of taxation would be better served by the proposed reform than by the status quo.

They don''t understand the maths of it. Corporation tax in the UK is a nice low 20% and roughly half of profits are paid out as dividends. To remain fiscally neutral, the tax on dividends would have to be about 40%. This is such a high rate that companies will either not pay dividends (meaning cash is just parked in government bonds and not put to its best use) or they will find devious ways of dressing up dividends as capital payments (like share buy backs and so on) which are usually taxed at much lower rates. As a tax advisor, I say bring it on, but I don't see why anybody else would be in favour.

Friday, 2 September 2016

This video was a real disappointment

I wanted to find out why he took his ducks with him and then see them fighting over a tortilla or something… but all I got was.

Thursday, 1 September 2016

Reader's Letter Of The Day (2)

Another letter which is not remarkable in itself, anybody who bothers to look at the numbers knows it, what is remarkable is that it is from Civitas, a fairly right wing Home-Owner-Ist lobbying group/think tank.

From today's The Evening Standard:

Rohan Silva is right to draw attention to the shortage of affordable housing in London but he is mistaken about its cause.

There is no shortage of land with planning permission for residential development as he suggests. Councils [in London] are approving in the region of 50,000 new homes for development each year - right in line with what most economists think London needs to keep up with demand.

The real challenge lies in getting those sites built on much more quickly once permission is granted. This is being frustrated by speculative land traders siting tight in anticipation of further price rises, and developers who drip-feed new homes onto the market so as to maximise sales prices.

Daniel Bentley, Civitas.


Observation tells us that in the medium term, additional supply in high demand/high wage areas creates its additional own demand and the overall effect is to push up rents and prices, but his point stands.

Reader's Letter Of The Day

It's nothing new or exciting, what is worthy of note is that he smuggled it into the Daily Telegraph readers' letters:

SIR – Tom Welsh (Comment, August 30) is quite right to say that updating our infrastructure doesn’t mean taxpayers should foot the bill.

Well-planned infrastructure improvements result in higher land values, which, if properly exploited, are nearly always sufficient to pay for them. Thus the public receives back the higher value created by public expenditure, and the Government does not have to borrow or levy taxes to fund the projects.

We need infrastructure investment. We don’t want it to be a burden on taxpayers. If we take advantage of the increased land value created by improvements, we can plan with confidence, knowing the costs will be met free of public debt.

Michael J Hawes, Newark-on-Trent, Nottinghamshire


Of course the Homeys will argue that making landowners pay for the benefits society bestows upon them is a tax; actually it's a user charge. And on a cash flow basis, the government would run up a debt to pay for the infrastructure and repay it out of the future user charges. But hey.