Tuesday, 6 July 2021

The 18-year house price cycle

Just for fun, using Nationwide's numbers for UK house prices adjusted for inflation.

The previous three troughs were 18 years apart, +/- six months. The previous two peaks were exactly 18 years apart. If this repeats, the peak average house price will be over £300,000 (adjusted for inflation) in mid-2025, and then it will all turn to shit again.

Land Value Tax would sort out this nonsense.


Robin Smith said...

You never used to consider the 18 year cycle. Does that make you a racist?

Nice graph.

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS, I've vaguely known about the up-down thing since the 1990s, it was Fred who pointed out the regularity.

Neither of which would indicate racism?

Lola said...

The cycle seems to be mostly driven by mad bad monetary policies.

Does this indicate that the psyche of 'the market' cottons on about every 18 years?

Or is it when the Central Bank down the road can kicking finally hits the wall?

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, yes, loose lending, has to hit a wall sooner or later, what is mysterious is that the 18 year pattern goes back centuries in the USA.

Robin Smith said...

Lola, it's not clear, but must be a combo of many things, and maybe even things the rational and logical thinking weakling Christian finds hard to accept.

For example, in ancient times the business cycle was governed by the Saros, an actual harmonic cycle of solar and lunar eclipses of about 18.6 years.

Now, here's the bit many struggle to even accept as a possibility, notwithstanding the many other possibilities they accept easily yet are no more certain: after many thousands of years of following the sun to determine the great resets, we no longer believe we do that right? But who's to say we still do, yet unconsciously, because otherwise it looks like mumbo jumbo to the enlightenment man?

I propose recessions are directly governed by natural forces fundamentally. We just find that hard to consider because like crazy fools we started to believe we are masters of the universe a few centuries ago as the loyal Christians, we still are.

Bayard said...

"You never used to consider the 18 year cycle. Does that make you a racist?"

No, it makes him a cyclist.

Robin Smith said...

What on 40 a day! Ner