Tuesday, 28 July 2020

Weekly deaths - all causes - E&W - up to week 29

Data from the ONS.

I assume/hope that this will be pretty much the picture for the rest of the year i.e. a slight undershoot.


Lola said...

Indeed. As in the poor people who have died were 'brought forward' deaths. My view remains that there will no statistically significant increase in UK deaths over the year 2020.

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, yes. But there were 60,000 excess deaths from Week 13 to Week 24, so the undershoot would have to be at least 2,000 every week from Week 25 to Week 52, which seems unlikely.

benj said...

But then you need to add this. https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/20/coronavirus-lockdown-cause-200000-extra-deaths-13014848/

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, yes.

From the article: "Forecasts made in April calculated that 12,000 to 25,000 people could die from delays to treatment in the first six months of the pandemic, with another 185,000 deaths in the medium-to-long term."

Good forecast - so far the figure of collateral damage deaths is about 15,000 (total excess deaths so far, minus official covid deaths).

benj said...


Are the lives of those who miss treatment foreshortened more than Covid deaths (in terms of days)? Plus what's the relative quality of life?

i.e not all 185K deaths are equal.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, you have to be ruthless here. And the NHS is more than ruthless.

If it costs £XXX to extend the life of a cancer sufferer by five years, or spend the same £ amount on treating ten covid patients, successfully treating five of them and extending their lives by possibly decades, clearly, you treat the ten covid patients.

benj said...


Average life expectancy and Covid death age are about the same.

Each day alive has a costed £ benefit which tapers off with age.

Average age cancer patient say 65, average treatment £40K.

Even if that doesn't result in an extra 15 years of life (survival rate 50% > 10 years), its a benefit worth the cost.

Sure there's a benefit to lockdowns and treatment of covid. But looking at the average age of covid deaths, has the lockdown/mitigation justified its costs? (OBR says this will cost >£300bn. Doesn't include loss of welfare).

I cannot see how it does. But I must be wrong because everyone seems to more or less support the government.