Monday 3 February 2020

Coronavirus daily compound growth rate slows from 38% to 31%

According to the BBC, the latest figure for people infected (presumably for 2 February) was 17,373 (China plus other countries).

Divide that by 7,711 cases on 30 January = 2.253.

2.253^(1/3) = 1.31 = 31% daily increase.

Which is a modest improvement on the 38% daily increase observed between 20 and 30 January. At this rate, it will take another 48 days for everybody in the world to have caught it, about one week longer than my previous estimate.

4 comments:

Lola said...

You are a cheerful chappie aren't you...

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, we'll be fine. Or we might die of it. That's life.

Lola said...

I'll take the first choice.

Physiocrat said...

Apparently it has been going for at least six months. How many have contracted the virus and experienced no symptoms?