Thursday, 30 January 2020

In six weeks, the spread of the coronoavirus will stop.

From the BBC:

20 January - 291 cases
30 January - 7,711 cases

That's a compound growth rate of 39% per day.

7,711 cases x (1.39 ^ 42) = over 7 billion, or pretty much the entire world population. 42 days = six weeks.

Death rates are currently at about 2% (assuming the Chinese government is telling the truth, lolz). These diseases tend to become less and less fatal as they spread. SARS was much more deadly at first, but then fizzled out and disappeared and/or just merged into flu generally, so the final death rates from coronavirus will be not much worse than the death rates from the colds and flu that go round every year anyway. And the rest of us will be immune.


Lola said...

This stupid alarmist claptrap is all grist to the mill of thems that wish to control us...

Rational Anarchist said...

The 2% figure is no use to anyone - they're just taking (number of deaths) / (number of confirmed cases)

What we need to see is (number of deaths) / [(Number of deaths)+(number of people fully recovered)]

which will be higher.

213 deaths
estimated 10k cases = 2%

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, yes, the end is nigh.

RA, good point. So it might be 3% or 4%.

benj said...

Spread through drinking too much Mexican bottled lager, or cheap '70s fizzy drinks endorsed by polar bears?

Bayard said...

L, everything is grist to their mill.

Physiocrat said...

30% death rates would have been something to worry about. It seems that most people are not catching it or get a touch of the sniffles.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, I forgot about the fizzy drink. That can't be the cause because they stopped making it years ago. Must be the lager.

Ph, let's hope so.

benj said...

Polar bears endorsed Cresta not Corona. My mistake.