Tuesday, 8 October 2019

"Overview of Northern Ireland Trade"

From the BBC:

A No 10 source says a Brexit deal is "essentially impossible" after a call between the PM and Angela Merkel... They also claimed she said a deal would never be possible unless Northern Ireland stayed in a customs union.

I'm all in favour of a (re)united Ireland and NI remaining in the EU customs union is a step in that direction. I'm not sure why the EU is so adamant, but it's not necessarily A Bad Thing.

It depends largely on whether NI trades more with RoI or more with GB? It makes sense to be in a customs union with your largest trading partner.

NISRA says that NI-GB trade is about four times as much as NI-RoI trade (or twice as much as combined NI-RoI and NI-rEU trade). GB is further away, but fifteen times as big as RoI, so that looks about right. Which means that NI would be better off (or less worse off) in the UK customs union and not in the EU customs union (which is not the answer I wanted).

Ho hum.


Lola said...

I am in favour of 'self determination'. If the majority in NI want to join Eire - fine. If they don't then not fine.

benj said...

I'm all in favour of a re-united British Isles.

Tim Almond said...

Lola is correct, of course, but would either a united British Isles, or a united Ireland make any difference?

There was once a big difference between the two places. Not just all the Catholic/Protestant stuff, but how much government was involved in people's lives, that sort of thing. But Ireland is now free market, low tax etc. The religion stuff is pretty much gone.

On the flipside, if you really want to live in Ireland, why not pack your bag and move? There's not huge language and cultural barriers and it's easy enough to pop home and see your family.

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, but let's not do the divisive referendum thing again, given NI's history, that's going to go horribly wrong.

B, why?

TS, it's a gut thing, to be honest. Everybody's view is equally valid. Me, I'd like to see a united Ireland, others want something else.

Lola said...

MW. Why not a referendum? I don't think it would go down well now for all sorts of reasons, but why not in the future? Scotchland had one...Anyway the Tories will never go for a ref (once bitten...??) as they are Unionists.

Physiocrat said...

UK goods must be kept out of the Republic AT ALL COSTS, even if it means ordering the German Navy to lay mines at the approaches to Dublin, Rosslare and other Irish ports.

Lola said...

Physiocrat. Lay mines? Oh no, not again. We won the last battles on the Western Approaches, so bring it on!!