Saturday 2 February 2019

The actual Good Friday Agreement says very little about cross-border trade

George Carty (on Twitter) trotted out a lazy misconception: "Surely the main problem is the Irish border (again) - IIRC we can't be in EFTA and also (as required by the GFA) in a customs union with the EU."

Fraggles points out in the comments: "The GFA does not state that NI must be in a customs union with the EU. It simply doesn't. Who keeps making this stuff up?"
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In such situations, I find it useful to write down what you know, and look up what you don't.
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1. Fraggles is quite correct. The full official text of the Belfast Agreement (as it was originally called) is available here. It's 35 pages long so I haven't read it all, but if you search for the word "border" it shows up ten times, but only as part of the catch-all expression "all-island and cross-border [matters]"; the word "trade" appears once as part of the expression "trade union".

Fact is, the GFA had very little to do with cross-border trade. Somebody who worked for the Northern Ireland Office (or Department or Ministry or whatever it was called at the time) under John Major (Tony Blair picked up the baton and finished off the process after he became PM) confirmed that the main aim was ending The Troubles, duh!

They did this quite simply by stuffing the mouths of the leaders of extremist movements/terrorist organisations on both sides with gold. The UK governments' own bullet points are:

* the creation of a democratically elected Assembly
* the creation of a North/South Ministerial Council
* the creation of a British-Irish Council and the British-Irish Governmental Conference


In other words, creating lots of lovely, well-paid public sector/political sinecures which were awarded to the likes of Gerry Adams and Rev. Ian Paisley etc. Every man has his price. In return, said trouble makers agreed to lay down their arms, and all in all, it has worked very well (at considerable cost to the UK taxpayer, but worth it IMHO).
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2. We know perfectly well that there was only a 'hard border' between NI and RoI because the NI police needed to minimise the amount of weapons being smuggled into NI and/or terrorists moving back and forth.

(Ever since Irish independence, the UK has always honoured freedom of Irish citizens to move to and from the UK (and vote in elections here), and there was never a reason to try and impede cross-border trade.)

The GFA enabled the border to be 'softened' to the point of irrelevance by buying off the terrorists/extremists. The only reason the UK would reimpose it is a resurgence of nationalist terrorism.

So people who say that if there's a No Deal Brexit we'll go back to the Bad Old Days of hour long queues at the NI-RoI border with armed guards and frequent inspections have completely lost the plot.
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3. If you search the full text for the word "EU", the most relevant paragraph is this:

The British Irish Council will exchange information, discuss, consult and use best endeavours to reach agreement on co-operation on matters of mutual interest within the competence of the relevant Administrations. Suitable issues for early discussion in the BIC could include transport links, agricultural issues, environmental issues, cultural issues, health issues, education issues and approaches to EU issues.

I think that Brexit falls squarely under their competence, so what is the British Irish Council doing about it? I haven't heard a peep from them. In fact, I'd never heard of them at all.
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4. More facts:

The population of NI voted by a reasonable majority to Remain in 2016.

The vote share of the two biggest Unionist (broadly, pro-Leave) parties in the 2017 General Election was 46%, against 40% for the two biggest Nationalist (broadly, pro-Remain) parties.

So a bit of an uncomfortable contradiction there!
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5. We know that borders are artificial, but a line has to be drawn somewhere and compromises made.

The UK is not a single political unit, there is a whole hodge-podge of territories which are 'British' for some purposes but not others (Isle of Man, Channel Islands - both use GBP and have same titular head of state - Gibraltar, Falkland Islands etc). Scotland is autonomous in some respects and has a fairly powerful Assembly (which they cheerfully refer to as the Scottish Government), Northern Ireland has a similar Assembly, which spends most of the time trying to get itself shut down again. And we manage just fine.

Similarly, there isn't actually a neat line round the Member States of the EU. There is a whole hodge-podge of territories which are in the EU for some purposes and not in the EU for other purposes, full list here. Gibraltar is on this list as well. And they manage just fine.

I'm thinking, surely it is not that difficult to think up some fudged arrangement whereby Northern Ireland falls into the categories of half-in, half-out of the UK and similarly half-in, half-out of the EU?

Where there's a will there's away. Problem is there is absolutely no will on EU side to do something sensible and Mrs T May is being held to ransom by the fairly extremist DUP.
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6. Cross-border trade is very important to the NI and RoI economies, making up about 5% of either side's GDP. I'm not sure if cross-border workers are included in that.

But NI or RoI trade with Great Britain (i.e. the rest of UK) is several times greater than trade between themselves.

Which stands to reason. Although the island of GB is a bit further away from RoI than NI is, the population of GB is thirty times the population of NI and fifteen times the population of RoI.

11 comments:

Tim Almond said...

It's more than just Adams getting a job. It's that money could be funneled down. People in the republican side could feel like they had a say in the country in a way that they often didn't before.

Does anyone seriously think that a few border police doing some lightweight passports checks is going to have people reaching for the semtex?

But honestly, I don't think a lot of people in the North actually care that much any longer. The Republic of Ireland isn't a conservative, theocratic state any longer. You have a gay prime minister of half-Indian ancestry and they legalised abortion by a considerable margin. What tangible difference would it make to the people in the north if they were ruled from Dublin instead?

Mark Wadsworth said...

TS, that's the problem though. More people voted unionist than nationalist.

Bayard said...

"so what is the British Irish Council doing about it?"

I think you've already answered that question here: "In other words, creating lots of lovely, well-paid public sector/political sinecures"

The British Irish Council aren't expecting to have to do anything, they are expecting to be paid for doing nothing.

"What tangible difference would it make to the people in the north if they were ruled from Dublin instead?"

They'd have to pay for their healthcare personally and not out of general taxation.

Curtis said...

The EU is a hodgepodge with many bits half-in and half-out, but Isle of Man, Channel Islands, Gibraltar and Falkland Islands are not in the UK at all, for any purposes.

Like Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands, they are British territories which cooperate with the UK. Australia and Canada used to be British territories but nobody ever thought they were part of the UK, even though lots of young men were sent off to fight the "British" war that had nothing to do with them. Anyone can use GBP if they want to, like Kosovo and North Korea use the euro. Head of state means nothing, Lizzy is the Queen of Tuvalu.

Nobody is going to do passport checks along the border, because the UK, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands will stay in a single immigration zone (just like Schengen is a single zone, even though it is not contiguous with the EU - Norway/Switzerland/San Marino are in, French Guiana is out). Just like some Schengen visas say you can only stay in Lithuania, some Irish visas are not valid in the UK, but nobody actually checks (unless someone tips off the authorities).

What they may do is customs checks. Places like Gibraltar and Åland and the Canary Islands are half-in and half-out of the EU, the main reason being that they want the benefits of the EU without some of the taxes. They only manage fine because there are customs checks when you travel between those places and mainstream EU.

I went hiking on a deserted mountain pass around the German-Swiss border and I encountered two Swiss customs officials who rummaged through my dirty clothes. I don't know what the point was because I didn't see any other people 2 hours before or after meeting them. They didn't bother about ID, even though I'm not white and my German is at the level of a 3-year-old. Then again I've crossed this border several times and was not checked before.

The EU doesn't give a shit about doing something sensible because they don't want the UK to leave. May is being held to ransom because she let herself be.

The "British Irish Council" is formed of May, Varadkar, Sturgeon, Drakeford and the heads of government of IOM and Channel Islands. So, they are dealing with Brexit, just not putting the discussions under the label of "British Irish Council". Here's a photo from their last meeting: https://www.flickr.com/photos/82474374@N03/44992837175

Anyway, they decided not to discuss the EU very early on, and the topics of discussion are now mundane/non-useful stuff that is being done elsewhere anyway, like how to get old people online, drugs and "creative industry".

Mark Wadsworth said...

C, this is the sort of pointless nit picking I expected to trigger*. My point is, there are lots of overlaps, shades of grey and compromises.

* Gibraltar and Falklands residents appear to get full British citizen passports. That makes those areas in the UK for that specific purpose. They can't vote in general elections, which mAkes them not UK, and so on.

mombers said...

Say we have an outbreak of common sense and reduce tariffs to 0% on good quality milk from anywhere in the world. How would you handle the import of pizza or ready meals into the Irish Republic? Without a hard border the EU's protectionist nonsense on agricultural products are not effective and the idle beneficiaries of trade barriers will fight hard to keep their privileges. That's why they are insisting on an open ended backstop, there's no way to square the circle.

Lower hanging fruit is going EFTA and thereby being able to leave the CAP. £3bn taken out of idle landowners' hands and can be put to use in the productive economy.

Mark Wadsworth said...

M, a border has two sides. RoI can do what it likes on theirs.

To illustrate, Canadians can import cannabis from USA but woe betide a US American who tries importing cannabis from Canada.

mombers said...

@MW can ROI do what they like with their side? If the EU says 'enforce a hard border to protect our coddled agriculture industry' what do they do? The EU's behaviour towards farmers in the rest of the world, particularly developing countries, is deplorable. But are they really going to turn a blind eye to a Maginot sized hole in the defences?

Mark Wadsworth said...

M.

RoI farmer turns up at border with lorry load of potatoes. Gets waved straight through.

NI farmer turns up at border with lorry load if beef. RoI border police turn him back.

mombers said...

@MW, so a hard border it is then - albeit only for goods (not people) and only in one direction. We'll have to see how bad the smuggling situation will be and worse if there will be any terrorism... And what do you do if lame UK farmers start lobbying for retaliatory tariffs?

Mark Wadsworth said...

M, I would do the same for people. The police know who the baddies are.

Farmers are always lobbying for special treatment, just ignore them.