Tuesday 14 August 2018

"Statistics misuse 'biggest health problem in Northern Ireland'"

From the BBC:

Figures obtained by BBC News NI show the number of alcohol-related deaths in Northern Ireland is the highest on record. Between 2001 and 2016, more than 3,500 deaths in Northern Ireland were attributed to alcohol.

Coroner Joe McCrisken said: "We have an enormous problem with alcohol use, misuse and abuse in Northern Ireland. The figures are frightening because they show that the number of alcohol-related deaths is increasing, so it's important to raise awareness about the dangers."


Okey doke.

Northern Irish population 1.9 million, average life expectancy 70 years, makes about 25,000 deaths a year.

3,500 'alcohol related' deaths (whatever that means) in 16 years = 220 per year.

In summary, only one in a hundred deaths has been accelerated by 'alcohol misuse' or is 'alcohol related'.

Dealing with alcohol-related illnesses costs the health service about £250m a year, said Dr George O'Neill, the chairman of Addiction NI.

And how much does VAT and duty on alcohol sales raise? About three or four times as much as that.

He added that 12,000 people were admitted to hospital each year with alcohol-related problems in Northern Ireland...

£250 million a year divided by 12,000 hospital admissions = £20,000 per admission. That is surely a completely made-up number and at least four times as much as the overall average cost per admission.

... where 170,000 people drank hazardously and 47,000 drank harmfully.

And out of 170,000 'hazardous' drinkers, only 220 die a year (see above) and 99.9% will survive quite happily, so it can't be that 'hazardous', can it?

4 comments:

Lola said...

You'd think that they'd be only to happy welcome more customers. If only I could think of something on which potential customers could get hooked in order that they'd have to come and buy my services. (FYI I am not ever going to enter the banned drugs business..).

Bayard said...

"£250 million a year divided by 12,000 hospital admissions = £20,000 per admission. That is surely a completely made-up number and at least four times as much as the overall average cost per admission."

It's probably arrived at by taking the total cost of the NHS in NI per year, dividing by the total number of admissions and multiplying that figure by 12,000, which completely ignores the fact that a huge percentage of the NHS's costs are fixed costs which the NHS has to pay regardless of the number of admissions and that the marginal cost per admission is actually pretty tiny.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, total cost NHS £120 billion or so. Total number hospital admissions 1.6 million a year.

Mark Wadsworth said...

So even if the NHS had no non-hospital costs (gp's, prescriptions), cost per admission is about £7,500.