Monday, 27 April 2015

Fun Online Polls: Most annoying phrases of the election campaign & The next UK government

The results to last week's Fun Online Poll were as follows:

Most annoying phrases of the election campaign
Hard-working families - 56 votes
Let me be clear - 40 votes
Long term economic plan - 22 votes
The Great British people - 21 votes
What we've said is... - 16 votes
The economic mess - 13 votes
Up and down the country - 13 votes
Other - 8 votes


There were some excellent 'others':

EarthvsTheSlimePeople: Renegotiating the EU treaties
James James: Let me be absolutely clear...
Bayard: Paying off the deficit
Graeme: Companies and individuals needing to pay "their fair share of tax"
Evilc: Look...
Bayard (again): The housing crisis
Wigner's Friend: (Did/do/done) the right thing (to do)
Me: Any statement starting with "Well..."

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Continuing the general theme - the most likely outcome.

Going by reliable forecasts, the three least-unlikely possibilities for the next government are:

a) Labour minority government. I'd rule that out, John Major struggled along with that for a bit at the end and nobody thanked him for it (at the time - with the benefit of hindsight he was the best PM in my lifetime).

b) Labour-SNP coalition. Hmm, sounds a bit fractious...

So the Sherlock Holmes principle leaves us with only one workable outcome:

c) A Labour-Conservative 'Grand Coalition'.

Labour will abandon their Mansion Tax and 50% income tax ideas in return for the Tories agreeing that the 45% income tax will stay in place instead of being cut to 40%; the Tories will row back a bit on the Bedroom Tax but be secretly delighted not to have to hold an in-out EU referendum; the Tories might go halfway on tuition fees and cut them to £7,500; Labour will merrily join in welfare claimant bashing and persecution of under-25s; more bansturbation generally. Etc etc.

Apart from those relatively minor niggles, I can't really see any big areas of disagreement between Labour and the Tories.

They're 100% in agreement on increases to NHS spending (waste); the pensions triple-lock; replacing Trident; building HS2; VAT and NIC tax rates generally; crapola about 'helping first time buyers'; allowing mass immigration from the EU and elsewhere while promising to 'do something'; retaining the Union with Scotland; running masive bloody deficits; on no account ever liberalising drug laws. Etc etc.

If anybody is aware of any big disagreements on policy or direction or rhetoric which can't be solved with a quick back room compromise, then please leave a comment.

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7 comments:

Dinero said...

Has anyone got a comment on the fact that the SNP are predicted to win seats while they dont feature as one of the the parties listed in the polls.

Lola said...

Re Con/Lab being the same, yes. Nasty authoritarians. Why is no-one really standing on a liberty ticket to compete with them.

Mike said...

You're right.

It's incredible that despite the intense tribal rivalry, supposedly based on a vast ideological difference, so little actual policy difference seems to emerge.

The only thing more baffling is how hardly anybody seems to have noticed.

They might have to agree a moratorium/stalemate on party funding reform (rich donors vs trade unions), but apart from that, mutual loathing is the only problem.

The Stigler said...

Lab/Con? Never going to happen. That would destroy the Indian Bicycle Marketing and expose what they're about (although I think people are slowly realising it).

Oddschecker reckons that Cons will get the most seats, but Lab will form a government. As betting was more reliable than polling in the Scottish election, I'll go with that (and if you think Lab can get more seats, there's an 11/4 going).

So, my guess is Lab/SNP as the result.

James James said...

I posted some links to Paddy Power on the poll:

The markets say Labour minority government is most likely at just under 40%: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=282167

Ahead of Labour-SNP (10/1) (and Lab-Con (33/1)) is Con-Lib, Con minority, Con majority, Lab-Lib.

Then it starts getting a bit complicated with Lab-Lib-SNP, Con-Lib-DUP....

Next PM probably Ed Miliband: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1199760

Tories win most seats http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1754349 and most votes http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=277624

Mike said...

I've gone for a Labour minority, I think a formal Lab/Con coalition would be too much for either side to stomach.

Labour have the edge, I reckon, even if they're not the largest party. They can probably rely on Tory abstention/absenteeism for most of their authoritarian agenda, but also on support from the SNP and Lib Dems for anything more socialist.

Remember that Clegg is history unless he can get back into coalition with the Tories, and Tim Farron will move the Lib Dems back left into their more familiar comfort zone.

Bayard said...

"Why is no-one really standing on a liberty ticket to compete with them."

Because the whole bloody political establishment are nasty authoritarians and people go into politics because they want to be able to make people do what they think they ought to or not do what they think they shouldn't. This attracts far more passion and feeling than the idea that people should be able to do what they please, by and large. We are a nation of envious, snobbish busybodies.