Wednesday 8 August 2012

That looks like one long recession to me

There's a splendid interactive chart at the BBC showing how long it took GDP to recover after the five longest/deepest recessions since 1930. The previous four depressions (defined loosely as 'the time it takes for the economy to get back to where it started') lasted forty to fifty months, this time there is no end in sight.

Which is hardly surprising, we have just had the biggest global credit-land price bubble ever and it will take correspondingly long to sort out.

But look a bit more closely, according to the chart the previous three depressions were 1973 - 76, 1979 - 83 and 1990 - 93. The first and last ones were clearly also the results of credit-land price boom busts (the starting dates correlate nicely with peaks in house prices*), the middle one was just a general mess, but isn't that really just one long depression, from 1973 all the way to 1993, with a six or seven year Lawson boom in the late 1980s which came to nought?

That's certainly how I remember it when I was growing up.* There was a house price peak in 1948, but this was the result of a genuine short-term post-war housing shortage and not the result of a credit bubble. This was sorted out by actually building houses, which is good for the economy, which is why there was no recession thereafter, even though it would fit nicely into the 18-year cycle, i.e. 1930 + 18 = 1948.

4 comments:

banned said...

Wow. I grew up and survived the three previous depressions and barely noticed them, just like the current one which I only know about because of the newspapers.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, these recessions are very hit and miss, most people aren't actually affected but those that are can be hit very hard indeed.

Lola said...

Clearly, we don't have a 'depression/recession'. What we have is a continuing land price / credit expansion bubble, that has now burst. The 'real' economy might be doing just dandy.

Personally, I think that the LP/CE bubble started sometime in the late 50's / early 60's, and it's first hiccough was marked by the secondary banking crisis of 1973. Incidentally, my old man was a house builder from about 1950 onwards and an unwitting LVT-er. He continually railed against house price 'inflation' and were he alive now he'd love LVT. Not all house builders are clueless.

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, whether we have recession or depression is a question of definition. And we do.

And yes, why would an actual builder celebrate high land prices? To him it is an input cost just like high prices for bricks or slates.