Wednesday 6 June 2012

"Experts at Bank of England say 'no' to common sense"

From City AM:

CONTINGENT capital bonds risk increasing volatility in financial markets and undermining banks’ safety, rather than enhancing it as planned, a Bank of England report warned yesterday.

“Cocos” as they are commonly known, act as debt but convert into equity when a bank looks like it is getting in trouble – usually when the share price falls below a set trigger level...


As we well know, debt-for-equity swaps are the quickest, cheapest and most 'free market' way of sorting out banks which are in trouble. All this means is that some of their repayable debts get converted into non-repayable debts i.e. shares i.e. ownership. This doesn't increase their assets, but it reduces their liabilities which is as good as the same thing.

To save bickering, the idea behind cocos is to make it clear exactly whose debt will be converted into equity and under what circumstances. Common sense says that a conversion would be triggered when the bank's capital ratio fall beneath a certain figure (and there's nothing to say that the resulting shares wouldn't be converted back into bonds again if the situation improved, a kind of pre-programmed share buy back).

Clearly, The Powers That Be are against this sort of thing (presumably they think it is better for the taxpayer to bail out banks), so they worked backwards from the answer, then launched a Big Fat Lie and made the wholly unsubstantiated claim decided that the conversion would be triggered by something completely irrelevant (the bit in bold) and then applied their contorted logic (see remainder of article) to show that because this would be the trigger, then all sorts of terrible things would happen. As it happens, the rest of their logic doesn't really stack up either, but once they've got their main point across that cocos are bad, that doesn't really matter.

This is exactly the same sort of propaganda that they used when arguing against the Alternative Vote - they started off their argument by making wild claims such as AV would mean that the candidate who came third in the first round would automatically win, or that everybody would have to vote BNP, and then extrapolated forwards again to conclude that AV must therefore be a bad thing.

8 comments:

James Higham said...

As we well know, debt-for-equity swaps are the quickest, cheapest and most 'free market' way of sorting out banks which are in trouble.

And the surefire way to corrupt definitions of debt, eg. Jan 23 this year in the US with those five banks.

Lola said...

The thing that intrigues me is why they persist with these, well, lies?

Maybe it's all part of some giant conspiracy theory, starting with mis-education of the young (so that they never have the nous to question these sorts of bollocky statements by The Great and The Good) and ending up with mis-rule, all for the benefit of the bureaucrats and their fellow traveller politicians.

Or am I being paranoid?

Mark Wadsworth said...

JH, explain?

L, Why? Your guess is as good as mine. But their claim about the trigger point for cocos is about as realistic as saying "Cocos would only convert if the Queen were assassinated".

Steven_L said...

Lloyds Cocos were snapped up by hedge funds and similar weren't they?

So Lloyds gets into trouble, it's cocos convert to equity and a few wealthy hedge fund investors lose 2% of their portfolio. And this is bad because?

Mark Wadsworth said...

SL, no, what the BoE are saying is that cocos would only convert if somebody kills the Queen, therefore the existence of cocos encourages people to kill the Queen.

Or, replying to your question, the article says that wicked hedge fund managers would buy cocos, beat down Lloyds share price, allow them to be converted to cheap shares and then allow the share price to rise again.

Which is of course nonsense - if you are clever enough or powerful enough to beat down a company's share price and make money selling short or buying low, then you would do it anyway.

Bayard said...

"This is exactly the same sort of propaganda that they used when arguing against the Alternative Vote"

If it works, why change it?

TheFatBigot said...

The whole thing about debt-for-equity swaps is that they take a bit of debt and lay it at the door on those who gambled on the business in question making profits rather than losses.

In this way the company that had a debt which challenged its ability to trade buys time at the expense of the very people who should sink in bad times and swim in good.

Whether the company in question is a bank or any other business it is merely a conduit for real people to make or lose money. A company cannot ever really make a profit or loss because it is an envelope of documents (these days a computer file) at Companies House. A profit can never result in the company sitting on a beach in Barbados drinking cocktails with a little umbrella in them.

When the conduit gets itself into a pickle all the shareholders and creditors have made a loss, the question then is whether that loss can be borne and then negated by future trading or needs to be crystallised. Debt-for-equity swaps are nothing more than the crystallisation of debts at the price of those who gambled with a view to profit but actually incurred a loss.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, indeed.

TFB, fair summary.