Wednesday, 22 February 2012

More wilful misreporting of Greek bail out

by The Metro:

After more than 12 hours of gruelling talks, eurozone ministers agreed a £200billion rescue deal that would save the country from bankruptcy.*

As part of the plan, £90billion of debt will be wiped out and interest rates on loans will be slashed. A further £108billion will also be loaned to the country to help it get back on its feet.

In exchange, Greece has agreed to cut pay, public sector jobs and spending as well as find £270 million of savings** in this year’s national budget. Next month, the IMF will decide how much to contribute to the package but if it is the same as last time, Britain could be made to hand over £1.6 billion***.


Nope, you cannot add £90 billion to £108 billion; you have to deduct £108 billion from £200 billion to arrive at the real answer +/- £90 billion, which is the value of debts from which Greece has been released.

What happened was that the EU/ECB/IMF gave existing existing creditors (who were owed £200 billion) £108 billion and told them to clear off, so now Greece owes the EU/ECB/IMF £108 billion instead of owing the existing creditors £200 billion.

* Countries can't and don't go bankrupt. They either default or are subsumed into a larger country, by consent or by force.

** To put £270 million into perspective, Greece's population and GDP are approx. one-fifth of the UK's, in other words, £270 million in their terms is £1.4 billion in our terms, i.e. still peanuts.

*** We will, hopefully, get most of that £1.6 billion back, sooner or later, as it is a loan not a gift; further, the chances are that this £1.6 billion will end up being paid to UK banks anyway. So this is not A Good Thing but it is hardly A Disaster, given the scale of UK bank bail outs so far.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Don't forget that the £270 million of savings are IN ADDITION TO those that were originally included in the bailout package. Those amounted to €3.3 billion this year. (Or €16.5 billion in UK terms.)

The deal also includes Greece agreeing to further cuts of €10 billion in future years, to be announced by June.

The total cuts included in the package are therefore €13.3 billion - €67 billion in UK terms.

What's more, all that is on top of the cuts agreed last year as part of the previous bailout.

I don't agree that we will get that £1.6 billion back. Greece is very unlikely ever to repay that IMF loan.

Mark Wadsworth said...

AC, exactly, if they'd said "a total of €3.6 billion of cuts" then fair enough.

My Greek smoking buddy said these cuts were a joke, the government plan to reduce civil service numbers by 15,000; he reckoned that reducing them by 500,000 would be a better place to start.