George Papandreou's proposal to hold a referendum on sticking with the EU's prescribed 'austerity measures' or not (sub-text: whether to stay in the Euro-zone of not, or at least this is what the French/German government appear to think it means, or possibly want it to mean) has taken everybody completely by surprise, so we end up with a situation where whatever anybody says about it says more about the person saying it than about the actual event.
The Daily Mash reckons that George P is just an old time con artist.
Leo Kolivakis seems to agree that it's pure brinksmanship on Greece's part to try and squeeze out an even better deal.
Angela Merkel seems genuinely miffed and is doing brinkswomanship of her own.
David Malone aka Golem XIV reckons that George P wants the people to vote to stay in the Euro-zone, and will launch a propaganda campaign of shock and awe proportions and intensity.
And so on, for every article you get a different opinion and it's not inconceivable that George P doesn't actually know what he's doing, short of going out in a blaze of glory.
To my great surprise/disappointment, it appears as though Allister Heath, editor of CityAM is firmly in the Greece-should-stay-in-the-Euro-zone camp:
The Eurozone’s main aim now will be to contain the fallout from any Greek default and withdrawal from the euro. The value of Greek assets (land, equity and debt) redenominated in a new drachma would slump 70-80 per cent.
Combined with inevitable capital controls, social collapse and mass nationalisation, the chaos would inflict huge losses on all companies with operations in the country. The European Central Bank itself may become insolvent as its Greek government bonds would become near-worthless...
I see absolutely no reason to make any of those assumptions. For example, was there 'mass nationalisation' in post-WW2 Germany, or in Argentine or in Iceland or in any other country which defaulted on its government/bank debts or devalued/replaced its currency?
Answer: nope.
Writing off debts is by and large a zero-sum game, so if 'everybody else' ends up worse off, then surely the Greeks would end up better off, after an initial adjustment period?
Tough but fair
38 minutes ago
14 comments:
Hello Mark,
I agree it is strange how unwilling we all are, me included, to think that our 'dear leaders' may, as you say, just not know what they are doing. And yet it is a very real possibility.
I also note how the article from which you quote seems to me to be exactly the sort of 'shock and awe' propaganda I was saying we could now expect.
Thank you for showing how the dire warnings of armageddon are erected on little besides worm eaten assumptions with virtually no basis in historical fact.
G, I read your article first and put it to one side. When I read the lies peddled in today's City AM, I thought to myself that you were being proven right so far.
It's just that going by GP's performance on the telly yesterday, I suspect that he really doesn't care any more. He paid the usual lip service to 'the European ideal' blah blah blah but you could have taken his whole statement to be completely tongue-in-cheek.
The more I read Alistair Heath I find him less and less convincing. He claims to be a libertarian free marketeer, interesting he described the referendum as "nonsense". I suspect he is little more than a shrill hectoring corporatist little sh*t dressed in free market clothes.
Agree that the views on what the referendum aims to achieve reflects on the person saying it.
I don't think that people here realise how bad things are in Greece currently. The austerity measures are larger than ever tried in a developed nation and in a shorter time.
So IMHO the choice is (Yes) absolute poverty, loss of sovereignty, and eventual default for the next 20 years and people saying you just didnt try or (No)Poverty,the cance to stick it to the elites and the bonus of a chance of things working out. I know which one i'd choose.
Would it be better to leave the euro or be chucked out of it? I would say the latter.
Referendum uncertain now as with the future of Papandreou.
Does any else find it ironic given the origins of "Demos Kratos"
Are the two unpopular at home leaders clutching at straws before they are both kicked out early next year? Merky has really got her knickers in a twist and Sarky should be at home changing his daughter's nappy.
Or he could be hoping for a 'no'. Then he can leave the Euro, freely print New Drachmas, and the internal economy (without any imports)can function and the country can rebuild itself.
Or he could be expecting a parliament revolt and new election where he can position himself as champion of the people and democracy. Vote me get referendum.
Or it could all be stage managed by Brussels to get rid of Greece in a way that absolves them of failing to help and therefore the contagion has less spread risk.
Or he could simply be passing the buck.
Or maybe he really believes in democracy.
Of, as suggested, maybe they are all totally clueless.
H, he's an odd one is AH. He appears to look at each issue individually instead of in the round. He is usually right on most things, but there is no over-arching coherence, so when he gets it wrong, he gets it spectacularly wrong.
S, being chucked out much more fun.
QP, he still appears to be PM as I type this, if they call off the referendum there will be Hell to pay :-)
PGTW, Sarko looks set to lose next year, next GE in Germany not due until late 2013.
W42, exactly, that's a good list of 'possibles' but which one is it?
What's the Greek for catastrophe?
What's the Italian for fiasco?
D, I dunno. You tell us.
So, the unanimous cabinet vote for a referendum isn't quite so unanimous now. Did the EU issue some serious private threats to Greek cabinet ministers, or is it the usual political backstabbing and opportunism?
Argentina defaulted, reintroduced its own currency, stole the savings and pensions of its people and then boomed. No reason to imagine why the Greek government can't just confiscate its citizens' wealth in exactly the same way.
I reckon better that Athens confiscates the wealth than Brussels.
Not sure there were any real wealth to confiscate.
AC1
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