Wednesday, 6 April 2011

Michael Howard doesn't do logic either

At the Evening Standard's well-attended AV debate, Michael Howard managed to contradict himself completely at least twice during his ten-minute pitch:

Exhibit One

AV is bad, he said, because it leads to more coalitions. There wouldn't be 'strong government'.

Fair enough, I can see why Tories like large Tory majorities and why Labour like large Labour majorities, although I'm not sure what's in it for the rest of us (or why Tories like large Labour majorities and vice versa - what happens when they get in is they waste the first few years just reversing what the previous lot did). But hey, that's his opinion.

A minute or two later, he warned AV supporters that AV would not lead to more proportional outcomes; he made the wholly unsubstantiated claim that the Tory majority in 1987 would have been bigger; as would the Labour majority in 1997.

Could he make up his mind please - either he likes big majorities or he prefers small majorities/coalitions (I can see arguments for either, although I personally prefer the latter); and once he's made up his mind about that, could he then please make up his mind as to whether AV or FPTP is more likely to lead to that outcome?

Exhibit Two

He also did the time honoured thing by claiming that not only would candidates pander to those who give their first vote to an 'extremist' party (i.e. BNP or UKIP - I'm not sure why the Green Party don't count as 'extremist')." but they'd also be blander overall because they'd be trying to grab second votes from the other major parties.

Ho hum. If I were a candidate from a major party in a seat where the votes are split roughly three ways, I would rather try to grab second votes from the vast majority who are likely to vote for one of the other two major parties than try to grab second votes from the tiny minority who are likely to vote BNP*. But the same applies to an election held under FPTP so I'm not it's even relevant.

Either way, I'd find it helpful if he could make up his mind whether he prefers bland candidates or slightly wackier candidates; and then to decide whether he prefers AV or FPTP.

* Red Ken, who was also on the panel and who has won rather more elections that Michael Howard, pointed out that the BNP had advised its supporters to give Boris Johnson their second vote in the 2008 London mayoral election. Boris went out of his way to dissuade BNP voters from doing so, promptly won the election and then merrily proposed an amnesty for illegal immigrants living in London (a policy which Red Ken himself had proposed) and something which would be anathema to the BNP.

Red Ken also pointed out that any candidate who was daft enough to try and appeal to BNP voters was likely to lose more votes that he gained and that the BNP themselves oppose AV. All verifiable facts, y'see. I like a man who sticks to actual facts.

As an aside, I can't see any real difference between Red Ken and Boris, except that Boris banned drinking alcohol on the trains, so all in all I preferred Red Ken, to be honest.
--------------------------
As a postscript, the reception the audience gave Stephen Woolfe (a UKIP spokesman on 'the City') when he asked a perfectly innocuous question was absolutely shameful, but he kept going anyway. Well done him.

18 comments:

Robin Smith said...

AV means people will be encouraged to think even less about what they vote for.

That seems fundamental to me.

How people vote is not important. How think think is very important. Today few people think. Why adopt a system that makes matters worse?

JJ said...

Sorry Mark, but the way Ken Livingston sucked up to Martin McGuiness and Gerry Adams when bombs and people were still being murdered by the IRA turned my stomach.

He could never redeem himself in my eyes.

Robin Smith said...

Oops forgot my anti AV election address

The Robin Smith Institute: Wokingham election address - 1st stab

Bill Quango MP said...

I've never seen Londoners queuing like they did to get rid of Ken.
I'm talking city types who don't normally care about politics in the slightest. People who are at their desks at 7am, queuing at 6am at a polling station to get rid of Ken.
I didn't think he was too bad as mayor But as a person, his dreary PC crap was like a communist regime.

As for Howard. There's that line
He once responded to a questioner that "I didn't go into politics to be liked!"
Which is just as well. Because he wasn't.

Tim Almond said...

Robin,

Even if people thought that you were the best candidate in the seat, hardly any of them will vote for you because FPTP favours the top two candidates standing.

That's why we have had the same 3 main parties taking 90+% of the seats since 1900.

Tim Almond said...

Bill Quango,

Howard was about the best Conservative leader since Major. If he'd stayed on, he'd have probably done better than Cameron.

(he also comes across much better in real life than on TV).

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS, and your point is?

JJ, fair enough, if you don't like him, then don't vote for him.

BQ, that's my point - there's barely any difference between what he did and what Boris does (apart from the drinking ban) and TBH they both seem quite good at being London Mayor.

JT, having seen him in real life, I'd say he is better on TV. In real life he is dull, dull, dull. As to 'since Major' that leaves a 4-year gap filled (or not filled) by Hague (whom I never liked) and Duncan Smith (to whom I am warming). Out of the three, I prefer IDS.

Robin Smith said...

JT yes thx I do recognise this but it is not my point.

MW, my point is, why does it matter what voting system is used if the people do not think about what they are voting for anyway? Homeys?

You may do. But the majority do not. The trouble with campaigns like ours is we believe we know the minds of the people. We dont. We think more. They are fast asleep.

Been talking to other candidates for the local elections. They think people care about the towns "vitality". But the majority dont give a hoot. They care about their house price and low council tax. Thats it. Bugger everyone else. How will AV help that?

Give them a voting system that allows even deeper sleep will wreak havoc.

AV is a self indulgent, wishful thinking, mistake. Its time to drop it and look for ways to wake the people up. Get them to commit to their obligations as citizens, not avoid them.

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS: "They care about their house price and low council tax."

Oh yes, completely agreed, all politicians know that, they are the only two things that matter to the Homeys really.

Anonymous said...

RS, my point is, why does it matter that we let people vote if the people do not think about what they are voting for anyway?

I fixed that for you ;)

Give them a voting system that allows even deeper sleep will wreak havoc.

I'm curious as to how you think AV encourages even deeper sleep?

Robin Smith said...

Its all in my election address.

Trouble is how do you tell the majority they are fully complicit in the pain they so often complain about.

A new voting system may count... a little. But the overwhelming force opposed to change remains strong as ever.

Robin Smith said...

fraggle

Aha we are getting closer to identifying you (: We know what sex you are and you come from this blog. (: Thx for the inquiry into LVC's. Keep it going.

See last comment to MW.

By asleep I mean choosing not to think.

How does AV help people think more? It seems to encourage less thought.

There is less need to commit to one candidate.

Less need to commit to the big matters.

We all know what the big matters are... right?

Yeah the homeys are at the bottom of it along with useless leaders. Banksters are laughing at us all.

Scott Wright said...

"Ho hum. If I were a candidate from a major party in a seat where the votes are split roughly three ways, I would rather try to grab second votes from the vast majority who are likely to vote for one of the other two major parties than try to grab second votes from the tiny minority who are likely to vote BNP*. But the same applies to an election held under FPTP so I'm not it's even relevant."

Hence why during the 2010 general election Labour were telling everyone to vote lib-dem in Tory/LD 1st/2nd seats......! That already happens with FPTP so what would be different? NOTHING!

Scott Wright said...

"As a postscript, the reception the audience gave Stephen Woolfe (a UKIP spokesman on 'the City') when he asked a perfectly innocuous question was absolutely shameful, but he kept going anyway. Well done him."

What was the question?

Anonymous said...

That already happens with FPTP so what would be different?

The difference is that you wouldn't require dishonest balloting to do it. This to me is the key issue. I find it odd that we seek honesty from politicians but routinely lie on our ballot papers.

Now sure, maybe we should just have the gumption to vote with our honest opinions, but why put barriers like FPTP in the way?

Mark Wadsworth said...

SW, the usual actually, he just said that UKIP liked the AV thing and that UKIP liked the idea of having referenda. Not even sure if there was an actual question but it was short and well mannered.

Anonymous said...

@"As an aside, I can't see any real difference between Red Ken and Boris, except that Boris banned drinking alcohol on the trains, so all in all I preferred Red Ken, to be honest."
Well Ken likes cuddling up to dictators.
He wanted to have a party (paid for by taxpayers) to celebrate 50 years of dictatorship in Cuba.
The fact that Ken campaigns for PR and for dictators is possbily the best example of doublethink ever.
Not a big difference in how London is ruled but less elected politicians who support dictatorships is IMHO a very good thing.

Tim Almond said...

Scott Wright,

Hence why during the 2010 general election Labour were telling everyone to vote lib-dem in Tory/LD 1st/2nd seats......! That already happens with FPTP so what would be different? NOTHING

One difference is that AV may give us the result people prefer, rather than simply their least worst option of the two parties who finished 1st and 2nd last time.