Wednesday, 13 April 2011

George Osborne doesn't do logic either

Or facts. From The Daily Mail:

Mr Osborne said: ‘What really stinks is actually one of the ways the Yes campaign is funded. The Electoral Reform Society, which is actually running some of the referendum ballots, and is being paid to do that by the taxpayer, stands to benefit if AV comes in... that organisation, the Electoral Reform Society – part of it is a company that makes money – is funding the Yes campaign.

'That stinks frankly and is exactly the sort of dodgy, behind the scenes shenanigans that people don’t like about politics. The No campaign has asked for it to be investigated by the Electoral Commission and certainly I think there are some very, very serious questions that have to be answered.’


So what?

The ERS has been campaigning for PR (and by default AV over FPTP) for ages, and it has a subsidiary which prints ballot slips. There's no law says that contracts for printing ballot slips in future have to go to their subsidiary, and the idea that AV needs 'expensive counting machines' is nonsense.

You can do the numbers yourself, but by and large the number of ballot papers which have to be shuffled from one pile to another is about one-fifth of the votes cast, so that's the difference between counting a two-thirds turn-out and counting an eighty per cent turn-out. I've had run-ins with El Comm, what they really hate is donations from undisclosed parties; the Yes2AV have never made a secret about who gives them money... unlike the No2AV people, of course.

He claimed AV could have distorted key election results over previous decades as people’s second, third and subsequent preferences altered the outcome and allowed parties to stitch up coalition deals behind closed doors.

Yes, AV might have led to slightly different results than FPTP; that's the whole point. We could equally argue that FPTP produced a 'distorted' result compared to what the result under AV would have been.

As to 'stitch ups behind closed doors', good grief, try looking in the mirror, Georgie! And we will be able to see the electoral price that the Lib Dems have to pay for this in a few weeks' time - these 'stitch ups' are not a no-risk strategy.

Georgie then keeps on digging:

'For many people in this country their vote won’t count as much as voters who vote for extremist parties. If you want a fair voting system – if you want your voice heard in this country and want a say over how your community is governed, you would want your vote to count at least as much, if not more, than a BNP voter.'

Under FPTP votes are far from equal; the vote of a swing voter in a marginal constituency is worth infinitely more than a vote in a safe seat. Be that as it may; the idea that a ballot slip saying e.g. "BNP -1; Labour 2" has more influence on the outcome than one just saying "Labour - 1" is palpable nonsense; by and large they both have the same impact.

In this example, if the Labour candidate wins on the first round, the BNP/Labour ballot slip has no weight at all; if Labour wins after the BNP/Labour ballot slips are redistributed then the Labour and BNP/Labour ballot slips have the same weight; and if the Labour candidate doesn't win anyway, then neither the Labour nor the BNP/Labour ballot slip has any weight at all.

As ever, let me point out that the Tories are daft buggers: the single-member FPTP system is biased against them (for obscure mathematical reasons); what they should have proposed a referendum on is 'Multi-Member Constituencies' which is even better than AV, so there is no way the Lib Dems could have turned this down at the coalition negotiations.

13 comments:

Old BE said...

My own logic challenge to you here:

"The ERS has been campaigning for PR (and by default AV over FPTP)"

Why does support for PR automatically imply support for AV? AV is emphatically not PR, it isn't even a little bit more proportional so cannot be argued to be a stepping stone.

Mark Wadsworth said...

BE, don't ask me, ask the ERS. I can also think of several things that are better than AV, but that is not the choice we were given, end of.

DBC Reed said...

Agree with you over multi-member constituencies:out here in the sticks ,the Tories clock up additional MP's for every single one-horse country town when taken as a multi member county ,the votes, with a Borda count ,might get some Tories,a couple of Labour ,no Liberals( damned for all eternity) and one Bring Property Prices Down MP.
But as you say ,that's not the offer.

Mark Wadsworth said...

DBC, to be fair, under FPTP, for every extra seat the Tories win out in the sticks, they lose two in the cities.

But if we get more BPPD MP's, then I'm all for it.

Bayard said...

"As ever, let me point out that the Tories are daft buggers: the single-member FPTP system is biased against them"

Perhaps they are thinking "better the devil you know", but OTOH, they also oppose full devolution for Scotland, a move that would lose them one MP and Labour and the Lib Dems all the rest.

The BNP must be loving the publicity they are getting out of this campaign.

View from the Solent said...

"What really stinks is actually one of the ways the xxxxxxx campaign is funded"

Replace xxxxxxx with any fake charity campaign and see which stinks most.

Tim Almond said...

Are you saying the Tories would do well under AV, or that they'd have done better to propose MMCs?

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, yup, same applies to devolving S or W (or NI for that matter), it would be clearly in Tories' interests to do so.

VFTS, indeed.

JT, of the various systems bandied about, MMC's would be far 'fairer' towards the Tories than SMC/FPTP. As it happens, I like MMC's best, but not for this reason.

Old BE said...

I like MMC because it can be proportionalish and representative plus we would have competition within constituencies.

win win win

Anonymous said...

MMC's also has competition amongst candidates from the same party. Even better.

Bayard said...

MMC also has the added benefits of being very similar to the status quo and not being something new, plus, if the number of members per constituency is five or above, there will be an element of voting for the candidate, not just the party.

Mark Wadsworth said...

BE, F, B, ta. I did a Fun Online Poll on the various voting systems (using run-off procedure) and MMC's ended up winning.

I hit problems when I did a run-off on how many members an ideal MMC would have. I've a nasty feeling we eliminated 5,4,3 and 2 and ended up with 1. Ooops.

Paul Lockett said...

The part of the quote that knocked me sideways was this:

If you want a fair voting system – if you want your voice heard in this country and want a say over how your community is governed, you would want your vote to count at least as much, if not more, than a BNP voter.

Did his brain not register the fact that he was suggesting that one person's vote counting more than another's was a feature somebody might view as being part of a fair voting system? "Fair" is one of the those vague words that gets used to mean a whole range of things, but that really is stretching its definition to the limit.

I find the Tory focus on the BNP amusing given that, other than the Tories, the only high profile party which is opposing AV is the BNP.