Friday 1 October 2010

First cracks appearing in Home-Owner-Ist Coalition


The fundamentalist wing of the Home-Owner-Ist coalition (see below if you're not sure what that is) has spoken. They have realised that their economic model was never going to work in the long run, but the wheels have come off, so now they are exhorting people to spend, spend, spend to try and breathe some life back into the economy. Whether it will reinflate the house price bubble is highly unlikely, but at least it will get people further into debt, thus increasing banks' future potential income.

The problem is that the foot soldiers - actual homeowners, in whose interests the fundamentalist wing claim to have been acting but clearly weren't - aren't listening. "We'd rather pay off our mortgages, if that's all right?"
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For nearly ten years, the Home-Owner-Ist coalition functioned very well:

1. Homeowners took a delight in rising prices and celebrated by borrowing an additional £328 billion using the rising 'values' of their homes as security, which added 9% to their post-tax incomes. Interest rates just kept on falling and the total 'value' of UK housing still kept going up to the tune of £200 billion a year. People somehow thought that the tax-free capital gains on their homes would somehow be sufficient to repay the loans, or something.

2. The politicians loved it because it kept them in power (having bribed the voter's with the Fool's Gold of seemingly ever rising house prices) and because it provided them with a handsome source of tax-free capital gains by 'flipping' their taxpayer-funded 'second homes'. The government happened to be Labour, which is nominally left-of-centre, but they kept natural Tory voters onside by bribing them with £325 billion of their own money (see 1. above) and keeping new development to a minimum (see 4. below). They had learned that Thatcher's idea of flogging off the best council houses to the better-off poor was a sure fire vote winner (notwithstanding the fact it made no economic sense at all for the long-suffering taxpayer) and so they pressed ahead with that.

3. The bankers were rolling around in their annual bonuses, which reached a peak of £13 billion in 2008, all on the back of shuffling bits of paper around. Not for nothing did an investment bank give former Prime Minister Tony Blair a £500,000 a year job a few months after he left office.

I'd consider the bankers and the politicians to be the Fundamentalist Wing and the homeowners to be mere prawns in this game.

4. It's also worth mentioning that the Coalition even managed to square the interests of home builders and NIMBYs - although homebuilders weren't allowed to build very many new houses, they were compensated by the fact that the value of their land bank was rising three times faster than house prices.

5. The current government is instinctively even more Home-Owner-Ist than the previous lot, the problem is that Labour have used up all the ammunition - once new construction is down to "none" it can't go any lower; once taxes on income and output have reached their revenue maximising rate, they cannot be pushed any higher, so they have no money left for propping up banks and house prices.

Most people manage to make the connection between the recession/depression we are in and the banking/financial crisis; most people realise that lack of new lending by the banks tends to push house prices down, but otherwise the banking crisis and the house price bubble are seen as two completely separate topics, but they are not, they are one and the same thing.

The credit bubble is behind everything - to problems in Euro-zone to banking crisis to house price bubble/bust, and who's behind the credit bubble? The Chinese? What do they get out of it except piles of depreciating paper with "US Treaury" written on it?

28 comments:

Trooper Thompson said...

"The credit bubble is behind everything "

I agree with this. The business cycle is caused by banks being allowed to expand credit through fractional reserve banking, a mechanism explained by the Austrian School (von Mises, Hayek etc).

Are you in favour of 'sound money', as the antidote?

I still don't really get your animus against 'home-ownerism'. Notwithstanding the bigger picture, in which the banking cartel take over the world through the issuance of fiat currency, there were good reasons for selling off the council houses, and they should sell off the rest too.

Mark Wadsworth said...

TT, ultimately, Home-Owner-Ism is for the benefit of the banks and politicians - it does not increase the spread of homeownership at all (down from 71% to 68% over the last ten years) and rising house prices do not make us richer, they make us poorer.

The capital gains that Irish people made on their houses over the last ten years = the extra tax they will have to pay in future to bail out their banks, and there is little doubt that this is how it will pan out in the UK in a couple of years.

To use an analogy, Stalin said that 'socialism' would mean common ownership of means of production, when what he meant was 'Party ownership of means of production'. The Fundamntalst Home-Owner-Ists (banks and politicians) pretend that they are on the side of homeowners when quite clearly they are not.

And of course I am in favour of 'sound money', but that's yet another bonus of Land Value Tax - it keeps land prices low and stable so prevents bubbles arising.

As a taxpayer, I find the sale of council houses at undervalue absolutely abhorrent, far more so that renting them at below market rents, for which there are very good reasons (however distorted the system may have become).

Trooper Thompson said...

Thanks for the additional explanation. "rising house prices do not make us richer, they make us poorer". Very true. People are still fooled by inflation into thinking they're richer.

"As a taxpayer, I find the sale of council houses at undervalue absolutely abhorrent"

Fair enough, but what about selling them at market value?

"And of course I am in favour of 'sound money'"

Hurrah!

Mark Wadsworth said...

TT: "what about selling them at market value?"

Where is the advantage to me as a taxpayer of them doing so? You have to learn to see 'council housing' as an asset owned by the taxpayer and rented out to low income people. It's far cheaper all round to do it this way than to just chuck them out on the street.

'Below market rents' is nonsense of course, they ought to charge tenants a fixed percentage of their income (say about 20% or 25%) which can easily done via the PAYE system, so that higher income tenants are automatically paying full market rent (or more!).

Scott Wright said...

"'Below market rents' is nonsense of course, they ought to charge tenants a fixed percentage of their income (say about 20% or 25%) which can easily done via the PAYE system, so that higher income tenants are automatically paying full market rent (or more!)."

I like this idea, provides an automatic dis-incentive to stay put when you don't need subsidised accommodation.

Mark Wadsworth said...

SW, it wasn't my idea either, it was a UKIP MEP who suggested it to me :-)

Robin Smith said...

@TT

If we were to give all the money to the international banking dynasty

And all the land to each land owner

Would we have another Austrian fuelled credit crunch?

I think not. Their perfect logic does not fit self evident truth.

The central problem is the institution of private property in land.

Money is simply the means to makes controlling the ownership of land that much easier

Get over it.

Robin Smith said...

MW

Agreed. But they cannot spend anything. Their wages are being forced to a bare minimum as we speak. They cannot borrow anything either.

All that is happening is inflation through QE is keeping the land price high. Yet its real value has fallen below the rent line already.

It must have. More unemployment, absolutely lower wages, less production

Land prices will fall finally when all else has been sucked dry.

Then the banks will sweep up the most valuable asset money can buy.

I'm expected the shit to hit soon after 20th October.

I think we should start a revolution?

Anonymous said...

"Homeowners took a delight in rising prices and celebrated by borrowing an additional £328 billion using the rising 'values' of their homes as security, which added 9% to their post-tax incomes."
Strictly speaking borrowing money is not really income.

"You have to learn to see 'council housing' as an asset owned by the taxpayer and rented out to low income people. "
Why ? It is often nicer (at least in London) than what many other people can afford. Why should people living in a grotty flat in an awful area like Grove Park zone 4 have to
market rate to buy/rent it. Whilst others get nice council houses/flats in central London.

I don't mind people who can not afford to buy food getting money from the state to do so. However not caviar.
This is what happens with council housing.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Anon, of course borrowed money is the opposite of income, but by a miracle of Home-Owner-Ist alchemy, people saw it as income (and tax free income as well!)

I completely agree on council flats in Central London, these should be let out at full market value which is hundred of pounds a week - and the money can be used to build more social housing a bit further out of town. That pushes rents down a bit for everyone, even those renting privately.

Win-win.

Bayard said...

I don't know if it is still the case, but many Central London council flats were really horrid tower or deck-access blocks. Because they were let out to the poor at low rents, nothing was done to improve them, whereas they were potentially, by virtue of their location, extremely valuable properties. This was proved when some of the worst blocks in Wandsworth were sold to a developer, who toshed them over, sold the flats off privately and made a fortune.

Trooper Thompson said...

@ Robin Smith,

I don't really know what you're saying, or what I'm supposed to get over. Perhaps you could enlighten me?

Robin Smith said...

@Bayard

Bit off topic but you might want to look at my blog on some useful insights into the UORR tenant issues. John Corcoran has brought to light. Particularly around the "free market" question we have outstanding.

Repo Order

Trooper Thompson said...

Robin, I'm still waiting for an explanation.

AntiCitizenOne said...

WRT council housing and subsidies for the "poor" Mark W and I disagree!

Selling off negatively yielding assets (council housing) was a genius idea IMHO

Robin Smith said...

TT

That Money is not wealth. It is the most common means we use to exchange wealth.

So it cannot be the central problem. Nor can it be the root cause of business cycles.

Apologies for sounding harsh first time around. I'm getting tired of saying it. I should be more careful.

Trooper Thompson said...

Robin,

I understand that money is not the same as wealth, but I see no connection between this and your next statement.

Nor do I understand where you have deduced the following from anything I've said:

"If we were to give all the money to the international banking dynasty

And all the land to each land owner..."

Frankly, I have no idea what you are driving at, but I will not tire you any further in seeking access to your system of economancy. Still, thanks for letting these crumbs fall from your high table :)

Mark Wadsworth said...

TT, don't worry if you can't follow what RS says, neither can I most of the time!

For example, you can't give "all the money" to anyone because if you net it all off, there is no "money". For any financial asset (i.e. money) to exist there has to be an equal and opposite financial liability (negative money). But all land could, in theory, be owned by a single person or small cartel.

Robin Smith said...

Aha. The verbal attacks. Love yer.

I'm asking you to think about what might happen as a thought experiment. Simple stuff. Rather than not bothering to think that carefully about something simple. Or reaching a point you like the sound of and stopping for prejudicial reasons. That is the connection. It requires no special intellect so dont get too insecure about having to ask me the God of thought.

TT seems to be saying that money causes credit crunches? Is this correct?

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS, I was merely pointing out that "all the money" is by definition zero. So as a thought experiment this would be splendid for borrowers and awful for savers.

Whether land is owned by a single monopolist or, as at present, whether land is a single monopoly but with widespread ownership of small shares therein* is not too important either.

* Much like publicly quoted utility companies. They are a monopoly but with lots of small shareholders.

Trooper Thompson said...

I am saying the expansion of credit by inflationist central bank policies and fractional reserve banking causes the business cycle. The credit crunch is the inevitable end when the bubble of illusionary wealth bursts.I didn't work this out, I learnt it from reading Ludwig von Mises. I don't claim to be a great economist, but this makes sense to me, and is not the same as your faux-paraphrase that 'money causes credit crunches'. And don't complain of verbal attacks when it was you that initiated them. Your point of view may seem self-evident to you, but it is not to others, which may be why you are tired out from explaining it.

Mark Wadsworth said...

TT: "the expansion of credit by inflationist central bank policies and fractional reserve banking causes the business cycle. The credit crunch is the inevitable end when the bubble of illusionary wealth bursts."

Fair and accurate summary, completely agreed.

My point is that the largest 'bubbles' are always in land values. The 1929 US stock market thingy happened 2 years after a land price bubble had collapsed in the USA, so the share price bubble was just a follow on bubble, in the same way as the current gold price bubble followed the oil price bubble of 2008-9, which only happened after the land price bubble started deflating.

Robin Smith said...

I'm not so sure that fewer monopolists are a better thing then more? If all people were tenants and there were a single remaining landlord what would that mean? Or if everyone where landlords (impossible) what would that mean. Or anywhere in between.

Anyways I'm waiting for Tourist Trophy to wriggle out of telling me that money is wealth or capital. Yes I know, you do not understand me.

Robin Smith said...

Now now TT. I only asked you to get over a religion of Von Mises, who think money is capital or wealth. And to reconcile that simple error before proceeding to the complex. A real issue on this forum. That offended you. My apologies. Apology accepted?

MW Really how could you??? Central bank internationalism is merely the mechanism by which it is easiest to acquire the rent. Its just a more insidious way of doing what has always been done. They are just the biggest landlords today. Much analogous to the dynasties and monarchies of old.

Its not money that is the problem. I'd try another thought experiment but realise the simple is less important than the complex around here.

XXX

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS; "If all people were tenants and there were a single remaining landlord what would that mean?"

It would at least put an end to NIMBYism! That one landlord would be keen to maximise his rental income, so he'd be slapping up new housing, new railways, new factories left, right and centre!

Trooper Thompson said...

Robin, I accept your apology of course, but if you want an answer to a question, you have to ask the question - meet me half way!

If money was wealth, then inflation would make us all rich. This is not the case. Neither can we all get drunk if we keep topping up the beer barrel with water. The beer becomes successively weaker, to the point where no matter how much we drink, we stay resolutely sober.

As to whether money is capital, I refer you to the Great Sage (whose name I am unworthy to utter):

"The first grave difficulty in the way of any investigation into the relation between money and capital arises from the difference of opinion that exists about the definition of the concept of capital. The views of scholars on the definition of capital are more divergent than their views on any other point of economics."

You may read on and draw your own conclusions.

http://mises.org/books/Theory_Money_Credit/Part1_Ch5.aspx

Mark Wadsworth said...

RS, this is a polite blog FFS!

TT has his 'religion' of Austrian school economics and we have our 'religion' of Georgism. They overlap to some extent and the belt and braces approach is to apply the lessons of both.

AntiCitizenOne said...

Oh course I'm a statist. I believe property rights can be a useful invention (when charged for correctly) so I'm a minimal statist not an anarchist.

I beleive there's a massive overlap between the Austrian School and Georgism. I'm still working on a Post with an LVT derived idea that would appeal to Austrian Schoolers.