Monday, 13 September 2010

Missing Figures Round

According to Table 5.3 in Chapter 5 of HM Treasury's public expenditure summaries, total public spending in 2009-10 can be sub-classified as follows:

1. Public sector salaries and pensions: £169 billion.
2. Cash welfare spending: £218 billion
3. Interest payments: £31 billion
4. Made-up figures: negative £30 billion
5. Money paid to private sector businesses (click and highlight to reveal): £281 billion.

1. Seems fair enough. Six million workers (that's one in six working age adults!) officially classified as public sector @ average salary £25,000; plus £20 billion for public sector pensions in payment (although this is not how they disclose it).

2. Seems fair enough. As an aside, that £217 billion (including student grants) would do for half-way decent Citizen's Income scheme for the entire population - let's say £120/week for pensioners, £60/week for adults and £30/week for children/young adults, plus £15 billion for the severely disabled (as at present). We could get the cost down a bit (or increase those rates) if we exclude "recent immigrants".

3. Seems about right. Huge number x low interest rate.

4. Income from sales of goods, services and capital assets £55 billion, minus accounting adjustments and unallocated provisions £25 billion. Heck knows what all this really is.

5. Yup, £281 billion - that's about one-fifth of GDP, over and above the salaries of six million public sector workers - consisting of: gross current procurement £196 billion; current grants abroad £6 billion; subsidies to private sector companies £9 billion; capital grants £23 billion and gross capital procurement £47 billion.
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The UK has about two million 'frontline' workers, so let's double that for back-up staff = four million; four million @ £25,000 = £100 billion. As any businessman knows, as a rule of thumb your total costs are double your staff costs, so the cost of public services 'should' be about £200 billion.

Let's be generous and pencil in £50 billion for 'capital' spending = £250 billion. That's about £200 billion a year less than categories 1. and 5. together, hey presto, instead of an annual £160 billion deficit, we'd have a modest surplus and can get on with repaying the national debt. What's not to like?

3 comments:

Lola said...

Of course all the State actually needs to do for us citizens is to run the military and provide the rule of law. You acn do that for say, £150Bn - and that's generous. Also it's about a 'tithe' of GDP. I like the tithe idea. 10% seems fairly fair.

Now, if we disposed of all the other crap, LVT'd us and paid your CP thingy, I bet we'd all be happier, wealthier, fitter, better educated, with better roads and railways and able to sort out our problems without loads of 'social workering' jobsworths.

Roill on the revolution.

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, the total cost of true 'core functions' (law and order, immigration control, refuse collection, fire brigade and defence excl. 'attack') is terrifyingly small - about £75 billion a year would cover it.

Lola said...

MW. I was lumping immigration under law and order/defence.

Ah, but for difference bewteen £150Bn and £75Bn we could have some lovely military toys. Even a space element. But, I am a bloke.