Thursday 12 August 2010

The worst kinds of government spending

This is as build-up to a subsequent post but important in and of itself. Regardless of what taxes the government uses to raise money (on which I have strong opinions, obviously), there are various broad categories of government cash spending, which we can rank from best to worst as follows:

1. Spending on 'core functions', i.e. things which the free market would not provide; which add value; and for which there are no specific identifiable beneficiaries, like defence, law and order (in the wider sense, which overlaps with social workers to some extent), public health (in the very narrow sense), road maintenance, refuse collection, fire brigade (the fire brigade is not there for the benefit of the idiot who sets fire to his own house, it is there for the benefit of the owners of the houses next to him) and so on. These cost an alarmingly small amount of money, perhaps five per cent of GDP, and create vastly more in value than they cost.

2. Simple redistribution in cash, i.e .a Citizen's Income or a Citizen's Dividend. Keeping people from freezing or starving is A Good Thing. Although capitalism is the only and best way of creating wealth, it's a bit hit and miss in distributing it and there's nothing wrong with a bit of insurance against hard times and the state can usually provide the cheapest mass insurance.

And, crudely speaking, £1 is worth much more to somebody with very little income than it is to somebody with a lot of income so this adds to the overall happiness of the nation. But means-testing on the basis of income or financial assets has all sorts of unintended consequences (it's a particularly spiteful form of taxation) so the best thing we can do is make welfare flat-rate and universal.

3. Means-tested and targetted redistribution, which ensures that nobody starves or freezes, but brings with it enormous distortions and social and economic costs.

4. Provision of specific services which the markets could provide (even though some wouldn't be able to afford it), especially those provided free at point of use, primarily health and education. The NHS, were it stripped of all the quangogracy and crap, would be very good value in terms of outcomes. Our state education system is absolutely appalling and hugely expensive and it would be far better to replace it with cash vouchers instead. Whether earmarked subsidies for public goods are more akin to item 2. or item 3. above is another debate. Council housing is a separate topic and I will not bracket it in here - overall it is not cash spending as it more or less breaks even.

5. A small group of very senior politicians living very lavish lifestyles. While it is indefensible in principle for MPs to award themselves fantastic salaries and pensions etc, in absolute terms this is rather less than one per cent of total government spending, so in absolute terms, it is not really that terrible,

6. The self-serving quangocracy, i.e. out of eight million taxpayer-funded jobs, about two million are doing 'frontline stuff', two million are back up staff and about four million do, best case, absolutely nothing of any value, they just sit in offices shoving bits of paper round and dreaming up stuff that never goes ahead. The real cost of these people is the loss of output to the economy in general - the productive work that these people would otherwise be doing (which broadly speaking is equivalent to their headline salaries, although it could be less, or it could even be more because funding one such job destroys one-and-a-half private sector jobs).

To contrast 5 and 6, to my mind it is better for one Prime Minister to pay himself £1,000,000 a year than it is for him to pay himself £200,000 and to employ forty people @ £20,000 each to shove bits of paper round. Either we have one person doing nothing of real value or we have twenty-one people doing nothing of real value.

7. The worst kind is the meddling quangocracy, who not only cost as much as category 6, they actively reduce economic output by imposing all sorts of stupid regulations and restrictions on the freedom of the general public, whether in terms of freedom to live how you like or the free exchange of goods and services.

Then there is the dustbin category of really, really awful spending, but which in absolute terms is nowhere near as big as Categories 6 and 7, such as international aid spending; subsidies and tax breaks for favoured industries; payments to the EU and other supra-national bodies; propaganda spending;all this 'green' crap etc. The list is of course endless and non-exhaustive, but please point out if I've missed anything important.

Just sayin', is all.

18 comments:

Steven_L said...

Does the money paid to the EU count as 'international aid' or is that even worse then?

Mark Wadsworth said...

SL, fair point, I'll add that as an extra category.

DBC Reed said...

The Guv surely has a right to use taxation for economic management: to discourage the capitalist system hoarding things and keeping up prices by restricting supply.The best example is of course land,where the hoarding thesis is the best explanation of why with crying-out demand for affordable housing the developers have restricted supply to a trickle of high-priced houses.They are not going to collapse the market by a flood of new building .
Jim Claydon, President of the Royal town Planning Institute,
"All landowners including housebuilders maintain land values by managing supply.It is not in their interests to release large quantities of land because this deflates its value".
People are also choosing to keep their money in the bank rather than spend it,especially those gifted lower mortgage repayments.This is formerly a velocity of circulation problem that economic reformers took a lot of interest in,requiring intervention.But the general standard of public debate has declined a lot since the days when
Frank Lloyd Wright could design a Utopian (he wrote Usonian)Broad Acre City based on Gesellian stamp money.

Umbongo said...

"Then there is the dustbin category of really, really awful spending, . . . . such as international aid spending. ."

Thanks, MW, I knew you'd get round to it eventually.

BTW, is the world turning? The remarkably unenthusiastic response to the Pakistan flood relief appeals by the Great British Public is, I would guess, a reaction to the information that
- much of the SE Asian tsunami relief cash (particularly in Indonesia) has . .er . disappeared (in another tsunami?)
- Pakistan is endemically corrupt and thus much of the aid will stick to a multitude of fingers before it reaches those it's meant for
- Pakistan chooses to spend its wealth on nuclear weapons rather than the economic well-being of its people
- Pakistan's Moslem "brothers" (with the exception of, we are told by the BBC putting in the "frighteners", various "militant" organisations) are - as usual - more or less absent from the relief efforts
and last, but hardly least,
- our "official" international development give-away doesn't make a blind bit of difference to the poverty in Pakistan (unless it's the "poverty" of those in power nationally or locally). More to the point, if the government - ie the taxpayer - is (on top of providing development funds) sending emergency aid then why should you and I be expected to cough up any more privately?

Mark Wadsworth said...

DBC, that's a matter for regulation or taxation as opposed to actual cash spending.

U, agreed to all of that, but AFAIAA, Islamic groups have been quite active in flood relief stuff.

It is a tried and tested method used by shadow governments and would-be shadow governments - the IRA and drugs gangs always look after widows and orphans, and apparently the BNP clip old peoples' hedged and organised litter picking days.

Tim Almond said...

DBC Reed,

Jim Claydon has no evidence to back up that statement, nor does it actually work in a reasonably free market.

The RTPI's own evidence to the Calcutt report said that builders have a landbank of 2.7 years of building. This is calculated using annual reports of outstanding planning permissions compared with how many properties they were building each year.

What this doesn't show of course is the time from getting planning permission to being able to actually get builders on site (planning stages, the local council building roads, the utilities getting all the electrical, telephone and water installed at the site). When you factor all that in, it actually doesn't look that unreasonable.

Builders have no interest in reducing the supply of land for the same reason that Henry Ford had no interest in reducing the amount of steel that was produced and Bill Gates had no interest in reducing the amount of floppy disks that could be produced. Sure, you'll make slightly more on each house that you build, but more land means that you increase how many you can build, and that's where all the money is in building.

Which is why, contrary to the leftie "evil business" view of this, building lobby groups like the HBF actually call for more land to be available. From their 2007 report into affordable housing (http://www.hbf.co.uk/fileadmin/documents/Policy/Affordable_Housing/AHPG_Report_Version_8_FINAL__10_July_2007.pdf): "The most important is increasing the supply of land with residential planning permission to allow house building to expand towards the 200,000 per year target by 2016."

DBC Reed said...

@JT
Jim Claydon stated there is a six-year supply of land with extant planning permissions in the SE"in London there are enough plannning permissions to deliver 20,5000 homes each year until 2016."
He was getting pissed off at right-wing air-biters going on about "the planners" thwarting the developers noble efforts to crash supply the millions of houses needed to satisfy the demand with narry a thought for average price levels.
Even your figures give 3 year supply of banked land.Why don't the houses get built then ? In the 30's they built three million houses for sale between 1933 and 1939 with low interest rates from coming off the Gold Standard but in the middle of a depression and at a time when private sector renting was the norm.Has capitalism lost its wondrous dynamism? (Don't forget that defaults in American sub-prime property screwed up the entire global system)

Tim Almond said...

DBC Reed,

What's his basis for this "six-year supply of land" in London? Citation, please?

He can get as pissed off as he likes. The fact is that the problems of housing are caused by homeownerists, planners and the likes of English Heritage.

Why don't the houses get built then ? In the 30's they built three million houses for sale between 1933 and 1939 with low interest rates from coming off the Gold Standard but in the middle of a depression and at a time when private sector renting was the norm.

Because town planning was almost non-existent until the 1940s. You could basically buy a piece of land in the 1930s and build on it.

And the reason that a boom happened when it did was the rise of building societies as a place for people to save their money, which led to the societies having lots of money and reducing interest rates in order to lend it out.

DBC Reed said...

@JT
I am surprised you think that building societies arose in the 1930's; they are much older dating from the time when only property owners could vote.The idea was to get as many working-class people into house ownership as possible in order to increase their electoral influence.Builders and providers of mortgage often worked in partnership in the 30's: builders would "fix you up with a mortgage" ,the result being that the houses were sold at an unrealisticly high valuation.
Green belts started with the Sheffield green belt in 1931 and there were numerous acts like The Restriction of Ribbon Development Act in 1935 before the war .Would yo haveliked the gruesome ribbon development along the A3 in S London to have continued along the road's entire length? Actually these main road houses were hard to sell : an early example of blight ,no-planning blight in this instance.

Tim Almond said...

Would yo haveliked the gruesome ribbon development along the A3 in S London to have continued along the road's entire length?

I don't know. What were the benefits and the downsides?

I'm not against planning. You need considerations of light, noise, resources, access and transportation. What we don't need is the homeownerist view of planning which just makes us all poorer, and which the Conservatives are about to make worse.

Bayard said...

Planners don't actually plan, in the main. They don't look at a town and say "We need the new housing here and the new factories here". All they do is wait until someone wants to build housing or factories on a plot of land and then say yes or no. The would-be developer's only reason for choosing that particular plot of land is that they own it, not because it is at all suitable for the development proposed upon it.

DBC Reed said...

@JT
I cannot see any benefits whatsoever in having all the major settlements of this country linked up with ribbon development ,say London with St Albans and Dunstable.This is what they saw happening in the comparatively freer market before the war and they stopped it pronto (circa 1935),the Green belts being a kind of extension of this fear.
You are equivocating on planning which you previously decried.
You have to remember Henry George was writing about California when it had a very low population (he made his name by attacking the coolie-labour work squads that were employed to work land and provide infrastructure: Mark Twain who considered himself part businessman, could not see how else to develop the State).So the need for a Single Tax was conspicuous in a totally laissez-faire ,practically state of nature,environment where people were going round speculatively buying land and re-selling it,with a mark-up , to incomers as California grew slowly more populous.LVT is compatible with any political or economic system.

Bayard said...

"Builders have no interest in reducing the supply of land for the same reason that Henry Ford had no interest in reducing the amount of steel that was produced and Bill Gates had no interest in reducing the amount of floppy disks that could be produced."

Oh yes they have! Compared to iron ore or crude oil, land, and especially building land, is in much more limited supply. A much better comparison is Welsh slate. Some time ago the slate producers in Wales realised that the only people who bought Welsh slate were those who had to, and that there was a limited amount of slate left in the quarries. Demand being thus price inelastic, the more they charged for the remaining slate, the more money they would make.

However, AFAICS, house prices are divorced from the effects of supply and demand and are almost entirely driven by buyers' ability to pay (i.e. interest rates). If you look at other great bubbles of the past, you will see that this is a classic feature of a bubble.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B "Planners don't actually plan". Exactly! And it's usually unfair to blame them for being so mean with planning, they are just doing what the NIMBYs tell them.

As to the spat about builders, you have to distinguish between
a) "The construction industry" in the wider sense (companies large and small, the self-employed, the actual and potential employees - and not just in house building but brick making, pipe smelting, glass making etc), and
b) A few large incumbents (Barratts, Taylor Woodrow, Persimmon) who do in fact own a majority of land with planning in this country (however little that is), and who froze most development for a year or so during 2008 or 2009.

The former would clearly benefit from more planning being dished out, the latter group much less so.

And yes, house prices are largely a function of availability of credit and of the level of subsidies (or taxes) levied thereon. There is plenty of evidence to say that new supply has an impact, but it's not as much as you'd expect.

Roue le Jour said...

I realise this is one of my hobbyhorses not one of yours, Mark, but I'd be interested to know why you class refuse collection as something that can only be provided collectively?

It seems to me this was monopolised a long time ago for reasons which no longer apply.

Mark Wadsworth said...

RLJ, it's the same logic as the fire brigade:

You might be a law abiding citizen who is prepared to pay for his dustbin to be emptied. But what if the people next door to you refuse to pay, and either stuff it in your bin, or just pile it up in their front garden?

It is very much a public health issue (not to mention the aesthetics), and, as it happens, costs f*** all, about £3 billion a year for the whole of the UK. The benefits of collecting it collectively far outweigh everything else.

And yes, the local council might not always strike the best deal with the firms that do it, but their bargaining power is far better than the bargaining power of each individual household, so that evens out.

Roue le Jour said...

I completely understand the public health issue, it's the monopoly I don't get.

If you wanted to buy a brand spanking new Mercedes KrappKompactor (I made that up) and trawl round Belgravia with keen young men in smart white overalls offering to take everything away without question at 8am sharp everyday that would in fact be illegal, would it not?

Mark Wadsworth said...

RLJ, that may or may not be illegal (I see no reason why it would be), but you'd still be entitled to put in a tender for the refuse collection contract in that area.

As long as the council chooses the lowest cost bidder (for a chosen level of service, weekly, fortnightly, whatever) then a taxpayer-funded monopoly, free at point of use is the cheapest and best way to go in the long run.

The only issue is that the council may not always choose the lowest cost provider, but that's why we need more disclosure of how contracts are awarded.