Monday, 5 July 2010

No, no and thrice no.

Adam Collyer left a new comment on Ricardo's Law Of Rent in action:

"Rental values for land will clearly be higher as the economy grows."

Good. Glad we're agreed on that.

"However, it does not follow that rent will represent an ever-increasing proportion of the economy."

Well it quite clearly does, however imperceptibly. Rents soak up the difference between an individual's earnings capacity and the bare minimum he needs to live on, hence the observation that net incomes, after tax and notional housing costs (i.e. 'the bare minimum')are pretty uniform across the UK, see e.g. The Daily Mail. This 'bare minimum' expectation has increased over time and I do not dispute for one second that we are, on the whole, a lot better off than fifty or a hundred years ago.

"The whole theory rests on the assumption that each unit of production requires a fixed quantity of land, and that quantity will only change as economic efficiency improves. That isn't true because land can be substituted by other inputs. For example, if land is too expensive, it can be partially substituted with capital e.g. by building a high rise building instead of single storey..."

It is quite obvious that the UK economy is not 'land based' in the sense that it is an agricultural society. We do not need a fixed quantity of physical land per unit of production.

But it is very much 'location based' - factories and offices need to be near where people live; people have to live near where the factories and offices are; shops need to be near where people are and people like to live near shops etc. Building better transport links improves location values, because employers have more potential employees; employees have more potential employers; shops have more potential customers and consumers have a greater choice of retail outlets, pubs, cinemas etc.

Even the mythical journalist who says he doesn't need land as he works from home on his lap-top needs a broadband connection (which has much the same effect as transport infrastructure) and the newspaper for which he writes has to be printed and distributed and sold like any other manufactured product.

Of course, you can build a ten-storey building in place of a single-storey building. 'Location value' has been magicked out of thin air, but the rental value of the underlying plot of land goes up by a factor of (nearly) ten as well.

"Land is actually no different from any other fixed asset."

Location values, like any state-protected monopoly are quite different from any other fixed asset (but very similar to things like radio spectrum, airport landing slots etc). The location is just there, it was always there, and will always be there. There was always a 51 deg North and 0 deg west, it just happens that this street happens to have had a massive conurbation built round it and has a Tube station at each end and one in the middle. That is what drives the location value, and then you multiply it up by planning permission to get your land value*.

Other fixed assets cars, machines, computers or buildings have to be created by human effort. Their value (in a free market) is the cost of manufacturing them plus a profit margin minus depreciation (any less than that, the manufacturer goes out of business; any more than that an new entrants will compete the price down).

You cannot (significantly) increase the price you can sell a car for by selling it in Central London rather than by selling it anywhere else in the country. Slightly different rules apply to things consumed-at-point-of-use, like a hotel stay or a cup of coffee - these are more expensive in town centres because the value includes a rental element.

"It is bought with money and therefore acts as a store of value."

Cars, machines, computers and buildings are bought with money. They depreciate over time and end up being scrapped and replaced. The value of a location may change, but overall, the tendency is for them to increase.

"Its value depends on supply and demand like any other asset. And although the quantity of land in the economy is (mostly) fixed, the supply of land is not fixed (in economic terms), because it depends on people's desire or willingness to sell it."

The supply of land is fixed. The supply of 'location' is not quite so fixed (we can always build more buildings, or build more transport infrastructure) but that merely pushes up the rental value of the land on which that building stands or the areas that are now near stations or a motorway junction.

"In actual fact, over the last couple of centuries, the proportion of output devoted to wages has increased enormously."

I wasn't talking about 'wages'. I was talking about the share of the rental value of land as a proportion of the whole economy. And that does tend to go up over time, it is an observable fact. Conversely, during a downturn, rents and land prices tend to fall faster than anything else, that is also an observable fact.

How the total profits of the productive sector are split between "employer" and "employee" is an entirely separate issue, and this split appears to be fairly consistent over time (if too many people think that they are underpaid and that profits are too high, they will set up their own business and compete away the differential).

"To suggest that the decline in the nuclear family (more divorce, more single parents, longer lifespans, better education etc etc) is caused by increases in land values, is questionable. Surely it is the other way around."

It's a bit of both, and the rise in the number of single people is of course driven by cultural things (more divorce), longer life expectancy etc. In any event, it is the rise in selling prices of houses prices which has helped to drive these changes and NOT increases in rents, which have risen far more slowly. There was and still is a huge bubble in house prices; there was no bubble in rents (how could there be?).

As Adam C himself has said, we could prevent house price bubbles by allowing more houses to be built. That would indeed help keep average selling prices down (demand being price inelastic - a ten per cent increase in quantity = a twenty per cent fall in selling prices), but it would in fact increase the total rents that could be collected from all existing houses (demand being price elastic - a ten per cent increase in quantity = a five per cent fall in rents), which is what I was talking about.

* Lest ye think otherwise, I do not indulge in bashing of commercial landlords, as they bear the bulk of the Business Rates and pay income tax or corporation tax on what's left; and their gross rents are depressed by all the VAT, PAYE and corporation tax that their tenants pay. If we replaced all taxes on economic activity with Land Value Tax, it is quite possible that a lot of them would end up with higher post-tax incomes - but there's only one way to find out...

11 comments:

Unknown said...

I´ve been thinking about land value and one of the problems of valuing the land is that when you buy a house you will be paying it off over many years, 30 - 40 years for first time homeowners. So they make assumptions about what interest rates are going to be and how much they are going to earning in future.

I live in Spain and people here made a lot of bad decisions. Here the problem was not a lack of new buildings but a construction/banking sector out of control.

There was definitely a need for new housing since older apartments here in Spain are not very well designed for the 21st century. Most older buildings don´t have lifts and there is no parking and they are generally run down.

So there was a big demand out there. So with low interest rates from the Euro they were able to start building lots of new apartments and houses. Because there were not enough construction workers a lot of South American immigrants were brought in, which created even more demand for housing.

Unemployment dropped a lot and now many more people could qualify for mortgages because they had a job.

However somewhere the link between income and debt got lost and people qualified for bigger and bigger mortgages and amortizations got longer and longer. Pesonally I blame the banks since they are supposed to understand risk. Anyhow banks panicked, projects were cancelled and there is no industry here capable of absorbing that number of unemployed construction workers.

Now there are apparently 1.5 million new homes unsold and prices have not dropped anywhere near where they need to be judging by the future prospects for Spain. Banks have taken possession of many of these properties but they don´t seem to be in a hurry to sell.

This where I think LVT would be perfect because the banks would forced to drop prices to sell the homes or pay the tax. Then they would be insolvent and the government could nationalise the banks. Capital would be wiped out but this would only be fair since shareholders took the profits while the banks were making money so they should take the losses when they screw up. The ECB would have to print a bunch of money to guarantee the depositors and life would go on.

Instead home prices are slowly trickling down and unemployment is about to get even worse again with extra VAT and job/pay cuts.

Why am I living here again? Oh yeah the weather!

Lola said...

"Cars, machines, computers and buildings are bought with money. They depreciate over time and end up being scrapped and replaced..." Buildings too.

Lola said...

Re last comment- ooops. Didn't read post properly. Aplogies.

Mark Wadsworth said...

A, no need to nationalise banks - if shareholders are wiped out then the bondholders etc can step up to the oche. It's highly unlikely that actual ordinary depositors and savers would lose a penny.

L, fair do's.

Robin Smith said...

May be no need to nationalise banks. But the issuing of the people's money certainly must be taken away from private hands. Evidence ? Please!!!

Adam Colleyer has not understand economics. That's OK, most do not. Its too simple when a special interest is concerned. That is rational.

See here for abundant evidence that incomes in wages and interest fall in proportion to the rent of land. No need to argue about it. Its a simple fact, that just needs to be examined with care. Yes I do realise many are not capable of that.

The Free State

Onus Probandy said...

Of course, you can build a ten-storey building in place of a single-storey building. 'Location value' has been magicked out of thin air, but the rental value of the underlying plot of land goes up by a factor of (nearly) ten as well.

This is contrary to your usual stated position: that land value is independent of the bricks and mortar on it. And that is the land value that would be taxed for its potential use rather than its actual use. Is then the potential use of all land a 100 storey office block?

Could you clarify for me? Have I simply misunderstood your earlier/this position?

Mark Wadsworth said...

OP, under the present system with strict planning laws, the value of a plot of land is exactly what I have always said - it's location x planning permission.

I always tell my property developer clients that they make 80% of their profits (at negligible downside risk) by getting planning permission - once you've got that you might as well cash in.

In that sense, the value of the plot is entirely independent of the b'n'm on it.

Do not confuse this with how LVT would work, which is to tax the land value only, i.e. the location x planning generosity.

To the extent that we retain planning restrictions as a comfort blanket, it would of course be totally unfair to tax the owner of e.g. agriculural land as if he had planning; or to tax the owner of a plot with a single storey building who would not be allowed to build a ten-storey building as if he had a ten-storey building*.

Which is why the Land Value Taxers refer to a tax on 'optimum permitted use'.

If we liberalised or even abandoned planning restrictions, then it would be a whole new ball game - the only rational way to decided 'optimum' use would be to look at the biggest, fully-occupied building on surrounding plots and to assume that each plots could be built on to a similar density.

* An extreme example is the Centre Point building in Central London. Although most of C London is restricted to ten storeys or lower, that building is 50 storeys high on a tiny plot. So with current restrictions in place, it would be fair to tax that plot at five times the rate of surrounding plots; but totally unfair to tax owners of ten storey buildings as if they had 50 storey buildings for which they would not get planning (that well known rurla landowner and all-round NIMBY Prince Charles would veto it).

Onus Probandy said...

I think you've done it with that one. The scales have fallen from my eyes.

That was an excellent explanation and has really cleared up a lot of the problems I had with LVT. You might even have made a convert of me.

Thanks, appreciated.

(I've got some questions about framing VAT as a production tax for you too, but I'll wait for your next VAT post for them :-)).

Mark Wadsworth said...

OP, my pleasure, see also later post with an extra footnote.

As to VAT, it is a tax on gross profits (i.e. net profits plus wages etc), it is far worse than income tax or corporation tax because it applies to some goods and services but not others more or less at random.

It is even worse than employer's NI because a) it raises twice as much and b) at least employer's NI applies to ALL businesses.

It is not a tax on 'spending' in any way shape or form, unless you consider the free exchange of goods and services to be 'spending'.

Onus Probandy said...

Mark: I am certainly aware of your hatred of VAT, and you're arguments have converted me there too. However, I was trying to convince my father and came unstuck. I therefore need to enlist your help to put me back on the straight and narrow; however I think that I need time to frame my problem correctly, so I will leave that one for now.

Mark Wadsworth said...

OP, VAT is another tricky one because of decades or centuries of propaganda. I'd like to think that one or other of my posts might be the one that convinces him, but neither of us can guess which :-)