Thursday 13 May 2010

At last, Barroso has said it...

To my mind this whole 'common currency' idea clearly has advantages (for example it reduces transaction costs, and, assuming free movement of capital and labour, it would tend to shift capital and labour towards profitable areas/activities) and disadvantages.

Without speculating on what those disadvantages might be, it is clear that once a currency area reaches a certain (geographical) size [As Dearieme points out, it is political, economic or cultural 'diversity' that matters rather than surface area], they outweigh the advantages - if this were not the case, the whole world would be using the same currency (putting aside the fact that for centuries, the whole world had a common currency, it was called 'gold'). We also know that there have been countless currency unions in the past, most of which fell apart again

For analogy with 'common languages', see footnote*.

As to this whole common European currency idea, which has been bumbling along for decades, opponents have always said that it would simply not work without economic, and hence ultimately political union. The more outspoken proponents were saying the same thing as well, of course, but this was not, until now, the EU-fficial line.

So you will be horrified/pleased** to see in today's Metro that Barroso has finally come out and said this:

The European Union wants to crack down on 'irresponsible' government spending following the £638billion EU stabilisation mechanism. The plan, proposed by the EU's executive commission, calls for unprecedented scrutiny of countries' spending plans – even before they go to their national parliaments.

EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said: 'You can't have a monetary union without an economic union and this is the absolute prerequisite for having monetary union.'


* By analogy, it must be clear that things would work better on a global level if we all spoke the same language, which is why the smaller languages are dying out and well over half the world's population now speaks just four languages, English (in all its variants); Spanish/Portuguese (which is more or less the same language AFAIAC); Arabic (and all its variants) or Chinese (in both its main variants).

Presumably, these language blocs are sufficiently big to gain most of the advantages, and the massive cultural resistance to further consolidation now outweighs any further gains that might accrue to a bloc which adopted English in favour of its own language. I can just about imagine English and Spanish/Portuguese merging over the next few centuries as well, and perhaps the Chinese and Arabs will adopt the Roman alphabet (like Turkey or Malaysia did; some Chinese language newspapers use the Roman alphabet etc), but hey.

** Delete according to whether you are an EU-sceptic or an EU-phile. Whether the spending cuts are a good idea or not is a separate debate, but let's not forget the huge financial burden that all the EU regulations place on domestic economies.

11 comments:

ukipwebmaster said...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7716530/EU-imposes-wage-cuts-on-Spanish-Protectorate-calls-for-budget-primacy-over-sovereign-parliaments.html

Sue said...

What do you think Mark?

Will Cameron cave in to their demands or will refuse to "transfer any additional powers to the EU?"

dearieme said...

"once a currency area reaches a certain (geographical) size, they outweigh the advantages": nope. The enemy isn't size, it's diversity.

Mark Wadsworth said...

UWM, indeed, that's the long version.

Sue, rearrange the following: flake's, hell, chance, snow, a, in.

D, fair point, I have amended that bit.

Anonymous said...

Not sure you're right about the languages - countries can drift apart as well. American English and UK English are becoming more different as time goes by, as the UK and the US drift apart culturally.

As far as the economic/monetary union is concerned, you (and Barroso) are of course 100 percent right. The only question is whether it isn't too late to stop the process of European economic integration. In my experience of speaking to people from other European countries, there is mighty little controversy over this except in the UK. Even here, personally I think it's all over bar the shouting.

Mark Wadsworth said...

AC, sure, there are centrifugal forces and centripetal forces; but it would appear that over time the latter have outweighed the former, i.e. various English dialects that existed 100 years ago (which made some conversations between people from different regions nigh impossible) are dying out, but US and UK English are tending to drift apart.

This is hardly surprising, as I have 99 conversations with somebody from elsewhere in Great Britain for every 1 conversation I have with a North American.

It's an equation with two unknowns and we can only observe the net result.

James Higham said...

This is going to finally tip Brits over the edge - that and the demand that we bail out Greece without being able to be bailed out ourselves.

Mark Wadsworth said...

JH, but this only applies to them and not to us. "First they came for the Euro-zone members" and all that.

Physiocrat said...

Dunno about Chinese adopting the Latin alphabet, their present script has the huge advantage of being one written language for several spoken ones.

People together will speak the language that is most convenient for them, and may flip from one to another and back again in the course of a conversation.

A stripped-down version of English is becoming very widespread.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Ph: "Dunno about Chinese adopting the Latin alphabet..."

As a simple observable matter of fact, some Chinese newspapers are printed in Roman characters, and Japanese corporations use Roman characters for their trademarks etc.

Whether this will disappear again or become more widespread we do not know - but one thing is for certain: people who have learned to use, and moved over to, the Roman alphabet have never* reverted to their original alphabets again.

* Cue somebody who points out a counter example.

Physiocrat said...

How about this seriously weird Latin alphabet?
A Á B D Ð E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P R S T U Ú V X Y Ý Þ Æ Ö
a á b d ð e é f g h i í j k l m n o ó p r s t u ú v x y ý þ æ ö